NFL Championship Sunday betting preview: Free NFL tips, prediction, preview and latest Super Bowl odds for the big play-off games
There are two huge rematches to settle who'll play in this year's Super Bowl and Paul Higham fancies one repeat and one case of revenge on Championship Sunday.
The NFL Championship weekend could be one of the best ever with the top four teams in the league colliding in two huge rematches of two of the most exciting and highest-scoring games of the last season, but will it be a case of repeat or revenge on Sunday?
In the first two meetings between these sides 163 points were scored and the match-ups could hardly be any more tempting with Tom Brady taking on Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees battling Jared Goff in a real case of the old stars taking on the new guard.
But will it be the 40-somethings winning out against their younger foes?
LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints
The Saints won the first game 45-35 and it is that result that sees the game taking p lace in New Orleans rather than Los Angeles. The Rams came from 21 points down to level in the fourth quarter in the first game, so if they can avoid falling behind early then they could be in business.
It was the Saints who fell behind against the Eagles last week, but you’d imagine it’d be harder to hold off LA if they lead due to the superior running game behind MVP candidate Todd Gurley and fine new addition CJ Anderson.
The run game has proved crucial in the play-offs so far and with the Saints having Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as one of the best one-two punches in the league this battle will be fascinating.
New Orleans did look shaky at the start of that Eagles game, and another slow opening will be a lot harder to recover from against such a strong running team as the Rams, and that could be the vital factor in deciding the outcome here.
The Saints are rightly favourites, and in another shootout you’d have to back all-time passing leader Drew Brees to outscore Jared Goff, but controlling the ball is golden in the play-offs and the Rams are equipped to do just that.
In a more low-scoring running contest LA can spring the upset and get back into the big game.
Verdict: LA Rams to win (+3) at 10/11
RequestABet: Under 60 points, T Gurley & A Kamara touchdowns, D Brees & J Goff both 1+ interceptions at 9/1
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
📺: Sunday night's AFC Championship Game features one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, Tom Brady, against one of the NFL's up-and-coming superstars, Patrick Mahomes. #ChiefsKingdom #LetsRoll pic.twitter.com/ND5icIUpEi
— Chris Roush (@ChrisRoush30) January 19, 2019
The Pats ride in to Arrowhead in the rare position as play-off underdogs, but write them off at your peril as in Tom Brady they may have a 41-year-old quarterback, but he just happens to be the greatest QB of all time with more play-off wins than anyone else.
Oh, and it just so happens that he’s already seen off young upstart Patrick Mahomes once this season with a 43-40 shootout victory earlier in the year. The vital factor, though, is that it came at Fortress Foxborough where the Pats went 9-0 this season – they’re 3-5 outside their own back yard.
They’ve got Brady and coach Bill Belichick, but rookie running back Sony Michel was the star man last week and he’ll be key again as running the ball, controlling the lock and quietening the crowd will be the pillars of the Patriots’ game plan.
Mahomes was other-worldly with his 50 touchdown passes in just his second season, but he too took a back seat to Damien Williams and the running game as KC ran in four touchdowns with Mahomes passing for zero – although he did rush for a score himself.
The Chiefs also produced a vastly improved defensive display from the ordinary to awful stuff they served up in the regular season. Stopping Brady in the play-offs is a different ball game but home field advantage could just be the key.
Even the play-off Patriots have been fallible on the road, recording just a 3-4 record in away post-season games with their last victory coming 12 years ago. Yes, they’re not often the away team but having also lost the last two away play-off games that will be weighing on their minds a little.
Again it’s fine margins, and there’s the added imponderable of how the Chiefs, and Mahomes in particular, will handle the pressure of playing for a place in the Super Bowl – and seeing Brady on the opposite sideline.
Verdict: Chiefs to win (-3.5) at 21/20
RequestABet: Chiefs win, S. Michel & T Kelce touchdowns, Mahomes over 13.5 rushing yards, D Williams over 4.5 receptions
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