After three winners from three last week, returning 8.41pts profit, Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his three best bets for Week 8.
NFL betting tips: Week 8
2pts Raheem Mostert over 66.5 rushing yards & anytime touchdown at 2/1 (bet365)
2pts Travis Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards & Evan Engram over 29.5 receiving yards at 13/5 (bet365)
2pts Derrick Henry to score 2+ touchdowns at 11/4 (bet365)
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Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
- When: Sunday 17:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: Raheem Mostert over 66.5 rushing yards & anytime touchdown
The Detroit Lions defence has been embarrassing – conceding an average of 32.3 points per game. On the ground they’re giving up 1.6 touchdowns per game & a huge 129 rushing yards per game to running backs.
Enter: Raheem Mostert.
The veteran running back has staked his claim as Miami’s #1 – over the last 4 weeks he has seen 15 carries/game & over 75 rushing yards/game, alongside a pair of touchdowns.
You may question his production over the start of the season, but he’s faced four of the top ten rushing defences in the NFL already. This Lions team is one of the best matchups he’ll have all season – and we can expect a positive game script as Miami dominate.
This will lead to more rushes for Mostert, and ultimately more yards & touchdowns. Take advantage of a plus matchup.
It’s important to note that Mostert logged a limited practice on Thursday – but he has been managing a knee injury over the last two weeks so this could just be maintenance.
Make sure to check his game status ahead of Sunday.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday 20:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: Derrick Henry to score 2+ touchdowns
Derrick Henry’s last three games against the Houston Texans:
- 32 rushes, 211 yards, three touchdowns.
- 22 rushes, 212 yards, two touchdowns.
- 34 rushes, 250 yards, two touchdowns.
He loves this matchup – and the Texans’ rushing defence is officially the worst in the league. Through six games they’ve conceded 812 rushing yards to RBs – an average of 135 yards per game, plus nine touchdowns to the position.
Just look back at last week, Josh Jacobs went berserk – 20 rushes, 143 yards and three touchdowns.
Henry had a slow start to the season, but his last three Sunday’s have seen consecutive 100+ yard games. He has five touchdowns on the year, alongside 14 red zone carries (five of those have come from inside the five-yard line).
The Titans will trust in Henry as they dominate the Texans. Take the value in a brace.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 13:30 GMT
- TV: ITV1
- Best bet: Travis Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards & Evan Engram over 29.5 receiving yards
With James Robinson out of town, Travis Etienne is a true RB1 now.
Last week he carried the rock a career high 14 times for 114 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Over the past three weeks Etienne has seen his usage grow – through that span the running back has averaged 90 rushing yards per game with a huge 7.9 yards per carry, making his 69.5 rushing line look like light work.
The Denver Broncos are conceding 93 rushing yards per game to running backs, and with Robinson now a Jet, Etienne’s backfield company includes JaMycal Hasty & Snoop Conner – two player who will seldom see the field. Take the over on Travis.
Etienne’s upward trajectory has coincided with Evan Engram (a winner in last week’s Cheat Sheet). His line is once more 29.5 – too low for a player who has been seeing over 7 targets a game.
Over the last three weeks Engram has totalled 176 yards – an average of 58 per game.
The Denver Broncos secondary is menacing (the second fewest yards conceded to WRs & only one TDs conceded to WRs all season), but they are middle of the pack against TEs – giving up 45 yards/game to the position.
Christian Kirk & Zay Jones will be locked up, expect Lawrence to find relief through Engram as he moves the chains.
Odds correct at 1515 BST (28/10/22)
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