Matt Temple-Marsh’s Cheat Sheet is back, with more insight and data on who you should be backing in Week 5.
NFL betting tips: Week 5
3pts James Robinson over 62.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt James Robinson over 100 scrimmage yards & to score a touchdown at 4/1 (bet365)
2pts Matthew Stafford to throw 1+ interceptions at 5/6 (bet365)
2pts Dallas Cowboys over 2.5 sacks at 8/13 (bet365)
1pt David Njoku anytime touchdown at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday 1800 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: James Robinson over 62.5 rushing yards
- Best bets: James Robinson over 100 scrimmage yards & to score a touchdown
The Houston Texans are dismal, and this week they face the Jacksonville Jaguars – who are looking like a play-off team right now. The Jags are seven-point favourites in this game, and I can see them hammering their division rival. This means a positive game script – so we’ll see plenty of rushing, which is why I love JAMES ROBINSON.
The Texans have allowed more yards to running backs than any team in the league – conceding an average of 180 yards/game to the position, on top of six touchdowns through four games.
Robinson has four TDs on the year, and he’s averaging over 70 yards/game. There may be concern over his last outing, but Robinson thrives in positive/neutral game scripts. When the Jags are trailing fellow RB Travis Etienne features more, thanks to his pass-catching upside.
Against the Eagles he had just eight rush attempts – in his previous three games he averaged 17 rush attempts. With this favourable matchup against the Texans, we can expect Robinson to return to his regular workload.
The undrafted RB also offers serious touchdown potential. On the year he has 12 red zone carries, ranking as the 10th most in the entire league – and five of those carries came with just goal to go.
The Jags D is legit, and I can see them suffocating the Texans. The time of possession will swing heavily in Jacksonville’s favour, as they pound the ball continuously with Robinson. Expect the Jags to bounce back with a monster game from their RB.
Dallas Cowboys @ LA Rams
- When: Sunday 2125 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Best bets: Matthew Stafford to throw 1+ interceptions
- Best bets: Dallas Cowboys over 2.5 sacks
The Cowboys’ defence has been superb through four weeks. With Dak out, they have been reliant on their defence to see them through games – and they’ve done just that. Only the Cowboys and the 49ers have held their opponents to under 20 points/game this year – and they’re fresh off a stellar performance against the Commanders, with six tackles for loss, 11 quarterback hits, and where they held them to 4.2 yards per play.
On the year Dallas is holding QBs to a 68.9 passer rating – as they’ve stacked up four interceptions, and they’re allowing just 174 passing yards/game.
Matthew Stafford has had a poor start to the season. He has four TDs to his six interceptions, and he’s throwing an interception on 4% of his passes – the highest mark of his career since his rookie season.
The biggest reason for his drop-off is the downgrade in the Rams’ offensive line. Last year Stafford was sacked 30 times; this season he’s already been sacked 16 times, the sack rate has up from 4.8% to 9.6%. He’s seeing a lot more pressure, leading to errant throws and ultimately interceptions.
The Cowboys have 15 sacks on the season and could well make light work of the Rams' now mediocre offensive line. You can pair these selections up at 15/8 in a game where the Cowboys will surprise many.
LA Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
- When: Sunday 1800 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: David Njoku anytime touchdown
Since Week Two, DAVID NJOKU has seen a 23% target share, as he builds on his relationship with quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Over the past two weeks the tight end has caught 14 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. This week he faces the Chargers, who are allowing over 52 yards/game to TEs, but Njoku interestingly loves facing them.
Here’s his record against the Chargers:
- 2017: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 74 yards, 1 touchdown
- 2018: 12 targets, 7 receptions, 55 yards, 1 touchdown
- 2021: 7 targets, 7 receptions, 149 yards, 1 touchdown
Naturally there are many variables, but I wouldn’t be shocked at another big game for Njoku. He’s seen 10 red zone targets, the highest for the Browns and the fourth most in the league. At the time of writing, Njoku’s yardage line isn’t out – but I’d bang the over, alongside him finding the end zone.
Posted at 1635 BST on 07/10/22
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