Ross Williams has a 5/2 handicap double for the final round of regular-season matches, plus we've player notes from Matt Temple-Marsh.
NFL betting tips: Week 18
2pts Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) to beat the Tennessee Titans at 10/11 (General)
2pts Denver Broncos (-13.5) to beat the Los Angeles Chargers at 10/11 (General)
1pt Jaguars (-12.5) and Broncos (-13.5) both to win at 5/2 (General)
The final week of the regular season is upon us and, as always, this is where things get a bit weird.
There are a host of games this weekend, but only a select few have legitimate stakes and you can expect to see a range of unfamiliar names and faces on the gridiron Sunday evening. With that in mind, it’s time to go a little more unorthodox with our punting.
As a general rule, backing favourites with double-figure handicaps is best avoided in the NFL. The prospect of a ‘back-door cover’ is always a distinct possibility. However, Week 18 does provide a couple of examples that stand out as exceptions to the usual norm.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Sunday, 18:00 GMT
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a sensation this season and they’re in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. Trevor Lawrence and co. have covered the spread in each of those seven – including when 13.5-point favourites against the Jets – and their average margin of victory has been 17 points. Indeed, five of the seven wins have been by at least 13 points – the figure that the Jags require to cover the spread and land our spoils against the Titans on Sunday.
As far as motivation goes, Jacksonville have about as much as a playoff-bound team can possibly have in week 18. Although results elsewhere will play a part, a win over Tennessee provides a dual-opportunity for the Jaguars. An AFC South title is there for the taking, and possibly even the right to be called the AFC’s #1 seed.
As for the Titans, although personal pride is a factor and this IS a divisional rivalry game, a win may not actually be in the best interest of the franchise. At the time of writing, Tennessee own the 4th-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but they are one of four teams with a 3-13 record. Tennessee can’t claim the #1 pick due to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, but clearly the front office won’t want the Titans to slip down the order too much this weekend, even if they’d never say so in public, and the victory would provide some level of bragging rights.
An in-form team with genuine motivation to secure the win against a poor side that may actually harm themselves long-term with victory? Let’s take the Jags.
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos
- Sunday, 21:25 GMT
Later on Sunday, the Denver Broncos find themselves in a similar scenario to the Jaguars. Like their Florida-based counterparts, they are also double-figure favourites in a game that will help them clinch the #1 AFC seeding.
On the face of it, the Broncos’ challenge seems trickier. The 11-5 Chargers are a considerably better team than the hapless Titans. But that’s not the whole story.
Whereas Broncos head coach Sean Payton is hell-bent on claiming the all-important playoff bye and will be throwing everything at this game to make sure it’s put to bed comfortably, the Chargers are a taking a risk-averse approach to their final regular season outing of the season.
Already confirmed by Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles will not be playing – and therefore risking – a number of their starters on Sunday evening. Although the full scale of the ‘rest’ is unclear at this stage, we know for sure that quarterback Justin Herbert will not be suiting up.
Without overthinking it, this completely changes the landscape of this match-up and puts the Broncos in prime position to tick off this home game, with some ease, and sail into the playoffs in the best possible spot.
One team is looking at next week rather than this, while the Broncos are throwing everything at this week, in order to avoid playing football on Wildcard Weekend entirely. It’s a hefty line, but everything points to a Denver win and the Chargers’ motivation (and ability) to keep things close is doubtful to say the least.
Week 18 Player Incentives
By Matt Temple-Marsh
As we enter the final week of the regular season, there may not be much to play for in terms of playoff places – but players across the league will be doing all they can to hit incentives within their contracts.
Here’s a view of players with a strong chance to hit.
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle will trigger a $250k bonus for getting his eighth touchdown of the season. He faces the Bucs, who have conceded 14 touchdowns to running backs this season. This is a must-win game for the Panthers, they’d be wise to lean into their emerging running back.
Deebo Samuel
Deebo needs 93 yards to hit 800 on the season and hit a $200k bonus. The Eagles are set to rest most starters – leaving a plus matchup for Deebo. The Eagles have allowed over 90 receiving yards to WRs nine times this season, most recently against the Bills last time out, with Cooks getting 101 yards.
Khalil Shakir
With one more touchdown Shakir will reach five on the season and earn a $150,000 bonus. He faces the lowly New York Jets, who just conceded five touchdowns to five different players against the Patriots.
Dawson Knox
The veteran tight end needs just 7 yards to hit $400k – and he’s seen his involvement increase over the previous weeks. Plus, the Bills are likely to rest their starters as the game progresses ahead of the playoffs, allowing us to see more of Knox.
Hunter Henry
Henry needs five catches to secure a $250k incentive. The Patriots face the Dolphins, who have allowed the second-most catches to tight ends.
Nick Folk
Jets kicker Folk needs two more successful field goals to hit a $500k bonus. With Brady Cook at QB don’t expect many touchdowns. Folk has made 2+ field goals in three out of his last five games.
Posted at 21:20 GMT on 03/01/26
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