Matt Temple-Marsh is +17.51pts profit over the past three weeks - an ROI of 103% - and he picks out four best bets for Week 10.
NFL betting tips: Week 10
2pts Justin Fields over 75 rushing yards at 21/10 (bet365)
2pts Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown & over 100 rushing yards at 5/2
2pts Kenneth Walker over 78.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kenneth Walker longest rushing attempt over 20 yards at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
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Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday 14:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Kenneth Walker over 78.5 rushing yards
- Best bets: Kenneth Walker longest rushing attempt over 20 yards
The NFL is hitting Germany, and Kenneth Walker is going to pick up a flurry of international fans. Since becoming the Seahawks starting running back, Walker has asserted himself as the favourite for offensive rookie of the year.
After taking over Penny’s duties – Walker has averaged 102 rushing yards per game and faces a Bucs defence that is surprisingly poor. Just one year ago the Bucs rush defence was hailed as the best in the league – now they surrender 100 yards/game to running backs, ranking as the 7th worst in the league.
Walker has five rushes on the year for over 20 yards – and faces a Bucs defence that has allowed nine rushes for over 20 yards. There’s been a lot of talk on lack of effort on the Bucs defence, with Devin White in particular being singled out. Expect Walker to win this battle and stack up the yards.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
- When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: Justin Fields over 75 rushing yards
Last week I tipped Fields to go over 49.5 rushing yards – he went off for 178 rushing yards – the most ever by a quarterback!? Sadly, I paired that up with his passing yardage line, so let’s stick to the basics this Sunday.
Over his last four games the QB has racked up a whopping 408 yards on the ground whilst averaging 8.3 yards per carry – as he’s cleared the 75-yard rushing line in three out of his last four games.
The Detroit Lions are the worst defence in the league, allowing over 29 points per game with over 148 rushing yards conceded/game (second worst in the league). Throw in that this defence just picked Aaron Rodgers off three times – and Justin Fields may be inclined to rush more.
Another positive is the Chicago Bears’ defence, who just shipped 35 points to the Dolphins. Trading away Robert Quinn & Roquan Smith has to no surprise badly hurt the defence – and there’s a good chance we’ll see a high scoring affair in this matchup. This leads to more Bears offence, and thus more Justin Fields.
Houston Texans @ New York Giants
- When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown & over 100 rushing yards
This is the worst rushing defence in the league, by some margin – allowing over 180 rushing yards/game.
The Texans have allowed more touchdowns to running backs than any other team in the league – and they’ve given up monster games to Khalil Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs (a hat-trick here) and Derrick Henry.
Saquon Barkley will be next on this list.
Saquon is looking as good as he did in his rookie year – averaging just under 100 rushing yards/game. The Giants are the fifth best rushing team in the league facing the worst rushing defence, and this is the easiest matchup Barkley will have all year long.
Throw in that the Giants are coming off a Bye after a disappointing loss to the Seahawks – expect a bounce back performance with Barkley at the helm.
Odds correct at 1610 GMT on 11/11/22
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