NFL betting tips: Week 1 best bets including Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

NFL betting tips: Week 1

2pts Denver Broncos (-8.5) to beat Tennessee Titans at 10/11 (General)

1pt Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts) 30+ rushing yards at 13/8 (SpreadEx)

2pts Bengals @ Browns under 47.5 points at evens (William Hill, BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived and, I’ll level with you, it’s tough.

It’s been nine months since we’ve seen most of these teams in competitive action and, as always, there have been changes aplenty up and down the league.

However, there is always value if you look hard enough and the first Sunday slate of the season does throw up some intriguing match-ups and opportunities.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

• Sunday 2105 BST

8.5 points is quite a big number for a week one game, but I think it’s justified in this case and very few would be surprised if Denver recorded an early-season blowout at Mile High.

The Broncos are one of the buzz teams in the league right now, and for good reason.

Quarterback Bo Nix surpassed all expectations in his rookie season, completing two-thirds of his passes, chalking up 29 passing touchdowns and guiding his team to a very healthy 10-7 record. He’s expected to go up another level in 2025 and if he can remain on that trajectory, the Broncos are almost certain to have a say when the big picture becomes clear in January.

The major reason for the Denver buzz, of course, is their ferocious defence.

Possibly the very best in the league heading into the new season, the Broncos are stacked on that side of the ball and they’re a frightening opposition for anyone heading to Colorado.

A rookie quarterback having to play his very first professional game, on the road, against Denver seems almost a little unfair, but that’s the scenario facing 23-year-old Cam Ward on Sunday.

The #1 overall draft pick may well turn out to be one of the top players in this league, but that will take time and, first, he’ll have to endure some tough lessons.

Twenty quarterbacks – drafted first overall – have played an NFL season opener as a rookie and, to date, only four have been victorious on debut. That stat only adds to the literal mountain Ward and the Titans will have to climb on Sunday.

This feels like a mismatch on both sides of the ball and with that in mind, I’ll take the Broncos to jump-start what could be a very successful season for the franchise.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

• Sunday 1800 BST

Much has been made of the Colts’ quarterback situation during the offseason and it’ll undoubtedly continue to be a big talking point as the year progresses. Ultimately, for better or worse, Indianapolis have opted for what they know they, as opposed to what they could have.

Anthony Richardson offers more potential upside, but Daniel Jones – after six years in the league – has 70 games in the tank and although his levels have been far from great at times, he provides the Colts with a slightly higher floor and the stability that Richardson likely isn’t capable of right now.

Jones will play in his first game since leaving the New York Giants on Sunday and based on the data we have on his career to date, I think there’s a week one betting opportunity that won’t stick around for long.

The quarterback is currently 6/4 to have 30+ rushing yards and this feels like a price that should be even-money at best. Jones is not a stereotypical passer who will just sit in the pocket and he has used his legs often throughout his time in the NFL.

In fact, his first carry in a Colts jersey will be the 400th carry of his career. For context, Peyton Manning – Indianapolis’ greatest-ever quarterback – accumulated 431 carries in 17 years. Jones has 399 in six.

The Colts have a very solid offensive line and a genuine top-level running back in Jonathan Taylor, so I’d be very surprised if Head Coach Shane Steichen doesn’t dial up some rushing scenarios for Jones, while the Miami defence is fixated on Taylor and his home-run tendencies.

We won’t know the full extent of the Colts’ gameplan until we see it play out on Sunday but seeing as Jones has averaged 31.1 yards per game over the course of his career to date, I’ll happily take a stab at 30+ rushing yards in his Colts debut.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

• Sunday 1800 BST

With Joe Burrow at the helm and the duo of Chase and Higgins in their receiver ranks, Cincinnati possess one of the most formidable offensive units in the NFL. But recent history tells us that the Bengals are slow-starters.

For a team that is generally in the postseason debate, their record in the opening weeks of the season is remarkably poor. Since 2019, Cincinnati have won just a single game in the opening fortnight of the season.

The Bengals have consolidated their roster, rather than making wholesale changes, so it’s fair to suggest we can expect something similar from them in the opening week of the 2025 season.

They’re also facing a divisional rival in the Cleveland Browns, who will be keen to put a marker down ahead of what looks to be a tough season on paper.

The Browns are certainly underdogs in this match-up, but they do have a not-so-secret weapon in Myles Garrett who can cause serious problems for Cincinnati.

In eight career games against Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Garrett has recorded 10 sacks and after a full offseason of freshening up, the game-wrecking pass-rusher will have Burrow firmly in his cross-hairs yet again.

I do expect the Bengals to have too much for Cleveland overall, but Garrett’s ability to disrupt the passing game, paired with Cincinnati’s general early-season misfiring, gives me reason to back the under.

With the line at 47.5 points, I’m comfortable that this one could be low-scoring enough to land the spoils.

Posted at 1355 BST on 06/09/25

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