NFL expert Matt Temple-Marsh has a points spread treble among his picks for Thanksgiving Thursday.
NFL betting tips: Thanksgiving
2pts Lions -2.5, Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +6.5 at 11/2 (General)
2pts Christian Watson over 50.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards, Ja’Marr Chase 100+ receiving yards at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Rashee Rice & George Pickens 100+ receiving yards at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Ja’Marr Chase 150+ receiving yards at 6/1 (bet365)
This looks to be the best Thanksgiving Day slate for years – with every game loaded with playoff implications. The NFL is serving up:
- 18:00: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- 21:30: Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
- 01:20: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Bill Parcells famously said the season doesn’t begin until thanksgiving – so it's time things get serious.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
The Lions open as a 2.5 favourite against Green Bay, despite their Week One trouncing which saw them get blown out 27-13. It was a shockingly nervy win last time out for the Lions against the Giants – but running back Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosion sealed the victory (264 total yards, three touchdowns). The Packers climbed to 7-3-1 with a dominant victory against the Vikings – thanks in large part to the woeful play of JJ McCarthy.
A player to target is CHRISTIAN WATSON, who is gaining trust from QB Jordan Love, as he returns from his ACL injury. Watson led the team in targets, receptions and yards – and over the last three weeks no other teammate has seen more targets. We’ve seen his big play potential thanks to his speed, and he faces the Lions’ secondary, who have conceded the second most touchdowns to wide receivers this season (15 in 11 games). Plus, in his last game against the Lions (5/12/2024) he went off for 114 receiving yards.
In terms of a match winner – the Packers have been an up and down team, and while Josh Jacobs looks set to return it’s doubtful he’s near 100%. The Lions are 4-1 at home this season and the Packers are 1-4 on the road when looking against the spread. Take the favourites.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
These two teams are coming off huge wins in Week 12 – maybe even season-saving wins – setting up a huge game on Thanksgiving.
In terms of players, we need to look at wide receivers. The Cowboys are the easiest matchup in the NFL for wide receivers – they’ve conceded a huge 1,843 yards and 18 touchdowns to the position.
RASHEE RICE is back from his suspension and has immediately asserted himself as WR1. Last week he had his first 100+ yard game of the season with a stellar eight-catch, 141-yard performance. Then for Dallas it’s impossible to not look at GEORGE PICKENS right now. He’s hit his over on receiving yards in six straight games and in the last two weeks he’s posts 140+ yards – with touchdowns in both.
Picking this game is tough, but home/away records may be the key factor. Dallas boasts an impressive 3-1 record at home, while the Chiefs are 1-4 on the road. Expect a high scoring affair, with an upset victory for Dallas.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
From out of nowhere the Ravens are back in first place in the AFC North, with five straight wins. The Bengals are fighting for survival, and with Joe Burrow poised to back it’s simply now or never in this matchup.
Two superstars are worth paying extra attention to in this one.
DERRICK HENRY has had quite the on/off streak over his last six games, where we’ve seen him produce 122 yards, 71 yards, 119 yards, 75 yards, 103 yards, 63 yards. Are we due for another 100+ yard performance now? He gets to face the Cincinnati Bengals rush defence, who have conceded more total yards to RBs than any other team in the league, so perhaps the answer is yes.
Then for the Bengals it’s hard to overlook JA'MARR CHASE. He returns from his suspension to face the Ravens and his last two games against them have been historic:
- 17 targets, 11 receptions – 264 yards – 3 touchdowns
- 12 targets, 10 receptions – 193 yards – 2 touchdowns
We know the chemistry is there between Burrow and Chase, plus Tee Higgins looks set to be out after suffering a concussion – this only means more targets for Chase. Expect another monster game.
For the winner here: the Ravens are favoured by just under a touchdown which feels too rich for me. Despite their winning streak, things still aren’t quite clicking. Lamar Jackson may well still be carrying an injury, which would explain why we’re not seeing his usual rushing prowess. Over their last five games the Bengals have only lost by over 6.5 points just once, and they played the New England Patriots right until the end last time out.
The Ravens will likely win this one, but I’m taking the Bengals with the points in Burrow’s return.
Posted at 20:25 GMT on 24/11/25
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