Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets as the NFL playoffs get underway this weekend.
NFL betting tips: Super Wild Card Weekend
4pts Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Dak Prescott 1+ interceptions at 3/5 (bet365)
2pts Devin Singletary under 46.5 rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Keenan Allen over 6.5 receptions & over 76.5 receiving yards at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Richie James over 4.5 receptions & over 47.5 receiving yards at 9/5 (bet365)
1pt George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards, over 3.5 receptions, 1+ touchdown at 16/5 (bet365)
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Tuesday 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Dak Prescott 1+ interception
Under the radar, Dak is having one of his worst seasons since entering the NFL – with a huge 15 interceptions thrown.
He’s thrown 11 interceptions in his last seven games, with at least one pick in each of those games – he’s become much more careless with the ball.
He faces the Bucs who have come to life. Their defence is starting to look like their Super Bowl calibre team again – and they have three picks over their last four games – on top of six sacks and 20 pass deflections.
When these teams faced off in week one, Tampa dominated. Dak managed just 134 passing yards, as well as an interception.
I foresee another disappointing playoff venture for the Cowboys, with a loose QB.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
- When: Saturday 21:35 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: George Kittle 44.5+ receiving yards, 3.5+ receptions, 1+ touchdown
George Kittle has seven touchdowns in his last four games. His chemistry with Brock Purdy is clear to see – all of his stats have increased since Mr Irrelevant became the starter.
In that four-game stretch Kittle is averaging 66 yards/game, alongside 4.5 catches/game. He faces the Seahawks – who have conceded 1,115 yards to tight ends on the season (the second most in the NFL) – on top of eight touchdowns to the position.
To sweeten the pot – here’s Kittle’s last two games against Seattle:
- 4 catches, 93 yards, two touchdowns
- 9 catches, 181 yards, two touchdowns
I’m predicting another dominant display here.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Keenan Allen 6.5+ receptions & 76.5+ receiving yards
A healthy Keenan Allen makes the Chargers tick.
Allen has seen a whopping 68 targets over his last six games – an average of 11 per game. He’s caught 44 of them too whilst racking up 532 yards, an average of 88 yards per game.
He faces the Jacksonville Jaguars who are conceding 238.5 passing yards/game – the fifth most in the NFL, alongside 11.5 catches/game to wide receivers.
In the Chargers’ Week 18 game against the Broncos, coach Brandon Staley decided against resting his key players.
In typical Chargers’ fashion, wide receiver Mike Williams suffered a back injury and is now out, so we can expect even more work for Allen.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday 18:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Devin Singletary under 46.5 rushing yards
Devin Singletary is on a downward trend, with James Cook seeing more and more volume.
Singletary has hit 46.5 rushing yards in one of his last four games (against the Bears 31st ranked rush defence). In the past two games it’s been near a 50/50 share for rushing attempts between Singletary & Cook, and they now face Miami.
The Dolphins have allowed the third fewest rushing yards to RBs this season – 1,160 per game. Plus, Singletary has faced the Dolphins twice this season, where he managed 13 rushing yards & 42 rushing yards respectively.
There’s also a chance we’ll see more of RB Nyheim Hines – with his Week 18 heroics seeing him gain more play time.
Take the under on Singletary.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday 21:40 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Richie James 4.5+ receptions & 47.5+ receiving yards
The Minnesota Vikings cannot stop the pass. They are conceding 265 passing yards/game (second most in the NFL) – and specifically 192 yards/game to wide receivers.
Enter: Richie James.
James is far from a household name, but he leads the Giants in receptions this season – and he’s hit form at the perfect time.
In his past four weeks, James leads the Giants with 32 targets, hauling in 28 of them for 269 yards.
He’s cleared the 4.5 receptions & 47.5 receiving yard line in three of these four games – including a monster game two weeks ago against the Vikings: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 90 receiving yards.
We can expect more of the same on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
- When: Monday 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Ja’Marr Chase 6.5+ receptions
I’m stunned by this line and price. Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 7.25 receptions/game – and is on an eight-game streak with 7+ receptions.
Over that span he’s seen a huge 93 targets – Joe Burrow’s favourite target by far.
Plus, he faces the Ravens – who have allowed the fifth most receptions to WRs this season, and Chase loves facing his divisional rival.
The LSU alum averages 7.5 receptions, 115 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs/game vs Baltimore. It’ll be business as usual this weekend.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 13/01/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
