The new NFL season gets under way this weekend so our Ross Williams delivers his verdict on who will win Super Bowl LX.
NFL betting tips: 2025/26 season
2pts Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
4pts Indianapolis Colts to win over 7.5 games at evens (Sky Bet)
4pts Indianapolis Colts to make the Playoffs at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
Who will win Super Bowl LX?
Thanks to Philadelphia breaking Kansas City’s hearts (along with their hopes of an historic three-peat) back in February, the Super Bowl LX market is as open as it’s been in some time.
A back-to-back-to-back Chiefs outfit would have been very difficult to bet against as we head into the 2025 season, but their dismantling at the hands of the Eagles brought a genuine end to the air of inevitability that had developed around Andy Reid’s side.
As we approach the season opener, KC are as big as 7/1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and, interestingly enough, it’s the Baltimore Ravens who have claimed favouritism, rather than the holders, Philadelphia.
However, my pick this season goes to the fourth-ranked team on the outright list. A team that has never won the big one but has a long history of knocking furiously on the door.
In the 2025/26 season, I believe the door finally swings open.
If you’ve been watching the NFL over the last handful of years, you’ll understand what I mean when I say the Buffalo Bills are due.
For 24 long years, Buffalo waited in the wings – if you’ll pardon the pun - without a divisional title, as the Patriots stamped their authority on the AFC and the league generally.
But in 2020, the landscape of the AFC East shifted. Things finally clicked into place for the Bills, and they haven’t looked back since. Five-straight divisional titles.
Great coaching has certainly been a major factor. Sean McDermott boasts an exceptional record as Head Coach and - before his move to New Jersey - Brian Daboll collected Assistant Coach of the Year honours.
But, without a shadow of a doubt, the one true aspect that turned Buffalo from also-rans to contenders is the man under centre.
The reigning MVP of the league, Josh Allen.
The quarterback’s 2024 campaign was nothing short of remarkable. In 17 regular season games, Allen threw 28 touchdowns, maintained a career-high QB rating of 77.3 and ran in for no fewer than twelve further touchdowns.
All the while, he threw just six interceptions, down from 18 a year prior.
Allen was already one of the premier QBs in the league, but the 2024 season evidenced that he’s still improving. With seven years of pro experience now behind him, he is a fully-fledged, two-way threat - dangerous from anywhere on the field - with the wisdom and know-how to keep the ball in the possession of the Bills.
Josh Allen is reason number #1 why the Bills are my pick this season.
Reason number #2 is based on something even more tangible than the high levels of likely production from the reigning MVP.
The schedule has been kind to Buffalo. Of the four most-likely teams at the top of the Super Bowl market, the Bills have the easiest run to the postseason by some margin.
Based on 2024 records, the reigning champion Eagles face the 3rd-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Ravens and the Chiefs - the main AFC rivals to the Bills - face the 10th and 12th-most bruising schedules.
Buffalo, however, will take on the 28th-toughest challenge of 2025. Otherwise known as the fifth-easiest.
Although there have been some signs of improvement - at times - the AFC East division remains a cake-walk for the Bills and although Buffalo do take on each of their aforementioned Super Bowl rivals during the 18 weeks of the regular season, their battles outside of those grudge matches are few and far between.
So much so, at the time of writing, that the Bills are currently favoured by the American sportsbooks in every single one of their regular season match-ups. This has happened to Buffalo once before - in 2022 - and they went on to claim a 13-3 record.
This gives Buffalo the best chance of any in the NFL to collect #1 seeding and the opportunity to retain home advantage through the Playoffs.
Of course, this isn’t a silver bullet for Super Bowl glory and the spectre of the Chiefs and their recent playoff record against Buffalo has to be overcome, but the timing feels right for the Bills.
Should Kansas City - or anyone else for that matter - take on Josh Allen and co. in the AFC Championship game this season, there is a high likelihood it’ll be the final NFL game ever hosted at Buffalo’s iconic Orchard Park stadium.
Does that help to make this something of a ‘vibes’ pick? Yes. Yes it does.
But in early September, before a ball has been kicked or thrown in anger, with a handful of teams in the equation as closely matched as these, I’m happy for a storyline to tip the scales in favour of an undeniably great team. Particularly a great team, with a superstar quarterback, facing a simpler route to the postseason than their rivals.
Besides, the National Football League has a long history of storybook endings and this feels like a fresh chapter just waiting to be written.
Colts to challenge
The Colts are a strange case. Now well over a decade since Peyton Manning left town, Indianapolis has begun reverting back to what it was BEFORE the sheriff made his home in the Midwest in 1998. A basketball town.
The Pacers were the hottest ticket in Indy, prior to Manning’s elite run at the helm of the Colts, and after six seasons of mishaps and a complete lack of continuity since Andrew Luck’s shock retirement in 2019, there is once again the feeling that football has fallen down the pecking order - and expectations around the team itself have fallen in unison.
Ultimately, the Colts have brought it upon themselves. The mismanagement of the quarterback position - the single most important role in sport - has been nothing short of ludicrous at times, under the stewardship of general manager Chris Ballard.
The Colts could have been forgiven for not replacing Luck right away in 2019. That would have been a tough task for anyone in the business. But, six years on, Indianapolis have thrown their fans from pillar to post and they still don’t have their obvious successor to Manning’s successor.
The latest incumbent of the job is Daniel Jones. Undoubtedly talented, but evidently flawed, Jones isn’t most people’s idea of a playoff-reaching quarterback. If he was, he’d still be on the roster of the New York Giants.
For many, Jones’ appointment as week one starter has been enough to rule the Colts out of any form of contention. But that feels a little rash.
The ludicrous Colts carousel of quarterbacks has led to the assumption that Indianapolis are something of a lost cause and a downright bad football team, hence the prices on offer in the ‘total wins’ market.
But recency shows us, that isn’t necessarily the case.
Whilst almost completely under the radar and never truly considered by the masses, Indianapolis went a very respectable 8-9 last season.
This was despite the fact that quarterback reps were almost split 50/50 between Anthony Richardson - who has since been beaten out by Jones - and Joe Flacco, a man set to celebrate his 41st birthday this January.
The Colts won in spite of the quarterback chaos, so it isn’t a leap to suggest that they can win games again in 2025, seeing as Jones isn’t likely to perform any worse than a limited quarterback duo who threw almost as many interceptions as touchdowns a year ago (20 TDs, 19 INTs).
Across the board, Indianapolis have actually strengthened, adding a high-level rookie pass catcher in tight end Tyler Warren and significant talent to a secondary that struggled a year ago in Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. Josh Downs returns after an outstanding 2024 campaign and the Colts still possess Pro-Bowl calibre leaders in Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner.
And yet, the odds suggest the Colts should worsen in 2025.
Now, am I saying they’re a Super Bowl contender? No.
But I do believe a roster that’s demonstrably better equipped in key positions than a year ago - with at least similar quarterback production - has a great chance of - at minimum - matching their 2024 win tally.
If they do, that’s even-money profit and, seeing as the AFC South has only once been won by a team with more than 10 wins in the 17-game era, I think it’s also worth a small sprinkle on a Colts postseason berth.
Posted at 1900 BST on 03/09/25
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