Matt Temple-Marsh searches through the stats markets to pick out his best bets for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
NFL betting tips: Divisional Round
3pts Ja’Marr Chase 7.5+ receptions at 11/10 (General)
2pts Kadarius Toney 31.5+ receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Brandon Aiyuk 75+ receiving yards at 13/4 (bet365)
1pt Kadarius Toney 50+ receiving yards & 1+ touchdown at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Boston Scott anytime touchdown at 4/1 (SpreadEx)
1pt Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards & anytime touchdown at 6/1 (bet365)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Ja’Marr Chase 7.5+ receptions
Ja’Marr Chase was a winner for me last weekend, and I’m backing him again. His line has risen by one reception – but it’s still very attractive.
In Chase’s last five games he has seen a huge 64 targets – he even had a whopping 48% target share last week. During this stretch he’s managed to haul in 42 catches – an average of 8.4 per game.
Plus, the Bills have allowed 12.5 receptions/game specifically to WRs – and starting CB Dane Jackson is questionable for this game after suffering an injury against Miami.
Chase is Joe Burrow’s favourite target by far – and we can expect a bounty of points in this game, meaning more passing opportunities for Burrow, and more catches for Chase.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
- When: Sunday at 23:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Brandon Aiyuk 75+ receiving yards
- Best bets: Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards & anytime touchdown
Brandon Aiyuk:
The San Francisco 49ers have the #1 ranked defence according to DVOA (defence-adjusted value over average - DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent).
The Dallas Cowboys come in as the #2 ranked defence – but there’s a major weakness.
They rank dead last - #32 – to WR2s. It’s time for Brandon Aiyuk.
Trevon Diggs has been electric for the Cowboys – but they have been limited outside of Diggs, and the problem has only been accentuated since Anthony Brown landed on IR.
In total, the Cowboys have allowed 2,663 yards to WRs – ranking as the ninth most in the league.
Here’s a look at WR2s vs the Cowboys over the past month:
- Zay Jones – 6 catches, 109 yards, 3 TDs
- Devonta Smith – 8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TDs
- Jahan Dotson – 3 catches, 72 yards
- Chris Godwin – 10 catches, 85 yards
Whilst Deebo Samuel is #1, Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets this season – and crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. He’s been Brock Purdy’s favourite target – and has crossed the 75-yard mark six times this season.
Take advantage of a soft matchup.
Christian McCaffrey:
McCaffrey has been the best offensive player in the league since joining the 49ers. He has eight touchdowns in his last seven games – and has logged four 100+ rushing yard games in his last six appearances.
His big play ability is what separates him – in those last seven games he’s had four rushes of over 30+ yards – with a huge 68-yard carry last week.
The Cowboys are softer against the run than most may think – with 1,721 rushing yards conceded – the 10th most in the NFL.
Expect McCaffrey to be prominently involved, with another huge day for the star RB.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
- When: Saturday at 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Kadarius Toney 31.5+ receiving yards
- Best bets: Kadarius Toney 50+ receiving yards & 1+ touchdown
Kadarius Toney is Kansas City’s secret weapon.
It’s took a while, but the Chiefs are slowly involving more and more of Toney – to close the season he saw five touches against the Raiders as he scored his second touchdown of the campaign.
There was a clear emphasis to get him involved – he’s such an X-factor. He has the potential to be a more nimble (less robust) Deebo Samuel.
This bet particularly appeals to me as Toney broke out against the Jaguars earlier this season. It was his second game with the Chiefs – where he saw five targets, four catches, 57 receiving yards & one touchdown – alongside two rushes for 33 yards.
Mecole Hardman is ruled out of this game – which only increases Toney’s potential.
The Chiefs have been patient with Toney, I wouldn’t be shocked at a huge play-off breakout game...you can find a brace at close to 20/1 too.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
- When: Sunday at 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Boston Scott anytime touchdown
Boston Scott is the Giant killer.
He’s scored 17 touchdowns in his career – ten of them have come against the Giants – including two in two this season.
Against the Giants, Scott averages 10.8 rush attempts, 51.8 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. New York haven’t been strong against the run – conceding 2,019 rushing yards to the position this year (fourth most in the NFL) – on top of 15 TDs.
Jalen Hurts may have cleared the injury report – but the Eagles would be wise to not have him rushing often.
We can expect the Eagles to lean into their running backs – with Scott having another strong outing against his favourite team.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 20/01/23
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