Matt Temple-Marsh looks ahead to Thursday night's NFL action, with two bets nominated as Buffalo Bills host Houston Texans.
NFL betting tips: Buffalo Bills v Houston Texans
1pt Woody Marks 70+ rushing yards & anytime touchdown at 7/2 (bet365)
1pt Buffalo Bills (-6) & under 43.5 total match points at 29/10 (bet365)
Buffalo Bills v Houston Texans
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Bills (-6.0) at 10/11
- Total: Under 43.5 at 5/6
Week twelve of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with the Buffalo Bills travelling to Houston to face the Texans – a battle of two teams fighting for the playoffs.
The Bills come into this game fresh off a huge win against Tampa Bay – led by their MVP quarterback Josh Allen, who accounted for SIX total touchdowns. When everything has clicked the Bills look like one of the very best teams in the NFL (as showcased by their victory against the Chiefs) – but we’ve seen how up and down their play can be, with an embarrassing 30-13 loss against the Dolphins just two weeks ago.
For Houston, the major story lies on the health of QB CJ Stroud. He suffered a concussion against the Broncos – and he’s set to miss his third game in a row. With Davis Mills as his replacement the Texans managed to secure two victories to pull them back to .500 – but it was shaky to say the least against the Tennessee Titans last time out. This team relies heavily on their defence – and face a tough battle on Thursday.
Bills rushing defence
Despite their lofty 7-3 record, the Bills possess one of the worst rush defences in the league. They are allowing 153 rush yards per game, the second most in the NFL, and they’ve conceded more touchdowns to running backs than any team in the NFL. Just last week we saw backup running back Sean Tucker explode for the Bucs – totting up 140 scrimmage yards and a hattrick of touchdowns.
This is a plus spot for Woody Marks – who is now firmly RB1 in Houston. After their bye week HC Ryans declared that Marks will be seeing much more of the ball – and his RB rush share has increased to 76%. I’m predicting a career day from Marks – who has yet to eclipse 70 rush yards in his young NFL career.
Points at a premium, in a Bills victory.
When thinking about Josh Allen you would automatically assume a high scoring game – but this is a battle of two stingy defences, and of course we have backup QB Davis Mills. The Texans’ defence ranks as the best in the NFL, allowing just 16.3 points per game and 258 total yards per game.
The Bills have a weakness to rushing, but their pass defence is second best in the NFL, and facing Davis Mills on a short week is a great spot. Josh Allen showed just how good he is last time out with a six-touchdown performance – and he boasts an 8-0 record in Thursday night games. Six of Buffalo’s seven wins this season have been by a margin of 7 points or more.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 19/11/25
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