Ross Williams has been in flying form as the NFL season approaches its climax. Here are his best bets for the Conference Championships.
NFL betting tips: Conference Championship
2pts Denver Broncos +4.5 on the spread at 10/11 (General)
2pts Over 46.5 total points in Rams @ Seahawks at 10/11 (General)
1pt double the above two selections at 13/5 (General)
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
- Sunday 20:00 GMT
Three of the last four AFC Championship games have been decided by three points and – even with Denver’s misfortune at quarterback – I have a suspicion this year’s edition may go equally as close.
Of course, the major storyline heading into the game revolves around Jarrett Stidham. The season-ending injury that Bo Nix suffered last week was a sickening blow and, naturally, it’s changed the complexion of the contest and how many people are viewing it. However, the confidence Denver are showing in their backup QB is tangible and head coach Sean Payton is no fool.
Stidham was one of the very first signings the Broncos made in Payton’s tenure and although he hasn’t seen frequent regular-season action, the quarterback has been a key part of the locker room, crucial to Nix’s early-career development.
Can he possibly channel Nick Foles and take his team all the way to the promised land? That remains to be seen – and it’s understandably doubtful – but I don’t believe the Broncos will simply fall apart on Sunday evening.
Denver were the AFC’s top seed for a reason, and that reason was never necessarily quarterback play. An elite defence – allowing just 18.3 points per game – has been the foundations of a fantastic season and they’ll be reliant on that unit this weekend to give them a shot at the Super Bowl.
The match-up isn’t bad either. Denver’s secondary is outstanding and although New England’s pass-catchers have put together a strong season overall, the Patriots lack the one truly outstanding receiver that would have the Broncos fearful. This somewhat eliminates Denver’s need to overcompensate with double-teams and it will allow them to commit more players to the middle.
This is where the Broncos can make their stamp on this game. Drake Maye has been sensational this season, but there have undeniably been issues in the past couple of weeks. The Patriots’ offensive line has crumbled, at times, and it’s led to Maye throwing two interceptions and giving up six fumbles.
New England have survived these mishaps so far, but they’ve ridden their luck and it’s tough to win too many big games with turnover stats that stark.
We know Denver can get to the quarterback – we’ve seen it all season – so this, for me, is where the game will be won and lost.
At minimum, I think this match-up keeps it tight enough for Denver – as hosts no less – to cover the 4.5 points.
They may not get the win when all is said and done, as Stidham’s lack of experience will no doubt hinder the Broncos offensively, but the mixture of great defence, great coaching and a great homefield advantage at Mile High is enough for me to side with one of the bigger home underdogs we’ve ever seen in a Championship game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 23:30 GMT
To say these two teams are evenly matched would be the understatement of the century. As divisional rivals, we’ve already seen the Rams play the Seahawks on a couple of occasions this season, and the stats are remarkable.
The series is split one each. The Rams scored 58 points and recorded 830 yards across the two games, while the Seahawks scored 57 and recorded 829 yards. One point in it, and one solitary yard in it.
Needless to say, I’m not jumping at the opportunity to swing either way in this one. Both teams can make clear cases why they should be the NFC’s representative in Super Bowl LX and this just feels like the kind of game that is best enjoyed, without a vested interest in either side.
However, I do have some interest in the points.
The ‘over’ has hit in seven of the Rams’ last eight games and, crucially, it was well cleared when these two sides last met. The line was set at just 42.5 that day, yet 75 points were scored between them.
We have a line of 46.5 on Sunday, which feels pretty generous all things considered. Generally speaking, Conference Championship games are tight affairs that go down to the wire due to the calibre of the two opposing teams, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that points are at a premium.
In fact, an average of 55 points have been scored over the last five NFC title games, so recent history is very much in our favour.
With offensive talent everywhere, wearing both uniforms, there is more than enough firepower to provide a real spectacle on Sunday evening, and I think we may be in for a treat.
Posted at 13:55 GMT on 24/01/26
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