Bijan Robinson has been a rare bright spark for the Falcons and he's the focus of Matt Temple-Marsh's Thursday Night NFL preview.
NFL betting tips: Falcons @ Buccaneers
2pts Bijan Robinson over 35.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Bijan Robinson 50+ receiving yards at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Baker Mayfield under 223.5 passing yards & over 16.5 rushing yards at 5/2 (bet365)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Buccaneers -4 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 44.5 @ 5/6
Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with the Atlanta Falcons travelling to Florida to face the Buccaneers, two NFC South teams who are having disappointing seasons by their standards.
The Bucs at start of season looked like they could challenge for the NFC title, but injuries and inconsistencies have them fighting for the NFC South as their only viable path to make the playoffs. For the Falcons, the devastating loss of QB Michael Penix leaves a lost season – as Raheem Morris is now simply just coaching to try and keep his job.
And Week 14 was a terrible week for both these teams. The Bucs shockingly lost to the lowly Saints, while the Falcons got blown out by the Seahawks.
Baker’s slump
Over the past four games, BAKER MAYFIELD has failed to reach 200 passing yards, and he’s thrown just four touchdowns alongside four interceptions. Accuracy issues are cropping up – he’s thrown below 50% in two of those games, and his connection with Emeka Egbuka has faded from start of season (his ~50% catch rate ranks near bottom of the league).
The Falcons’ defence is a tough matchup – when these sides met earlier this season, he threw for just 167 yards, and in his career against Atlanta he’s averaged just 218 yards per game.
However, his rushing line is set at 16.5 – a mark which he has cleared in four straight games. The Falcons have allowed the fourth most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, and when these sides met earlier this year Baker scampered for 39. With the passing game struggling, expect him to lean on his legs to pick up first downs.
Bijan bounty
For all Falcons’ woes, BIJAN ROBINSON still remains a huge bright spark. He’s on pace for a career year in teams of scrimmage yards and his receiving ability is what’s driving him over the top.
His line for this game is set at just 35.5 – he’s cleared this in three of his last four games. Plus, he gets to face the Bucs, who have allowed more receiving yards to RBs than any team in the NFL.
In his career he’s averaged 42.6 receiving yards per game against the Bucs, and in his last game against them he hauled in six passes for 100 yards. He's a nice price to clear 50 and is also worth backing to cover the 35.5 line.
Posted at 11:10 GMT on 10/12/25
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