NFL Awards 2022: Betting pointers and tips from MVP to Comeback Player of the Year
The 2022 NFL season kicks off in Los Angeles on Thursday night with the marquee matchup between Super Bowl favourites Buffalo and the defending champion Los Angeles Rams.
But while betting against the spread and parlay picks might be the bread and butter of pro football punting, there are a myriad of other markets out there which provide season-long interest.
A host of NFL awards are handed out at the end of each season, and they provide fascinating subplots right the way through to Week 18.
Here is how the early markets are shaping up, along with some offseason context.
NFL MVP
NFL MVP is the jewel in the crown of pro football individual honours, and Green Bay Packers QB AARON RODGERS returns to bid for a ‘threepeat’ after winning the award in 2020 and 2021.
Rodgers, who signed a new contract worth a league-record $50million per season earlier this year, will be without his favourite target in 2022 after WR Davante Adams was traded to Las Vegas.
Favourite at 7/1 to come out on top in the MVP race in 2022 is JOSH ALLEN, whose Buffalo Bills go into the season heading the ante-post market to win Super Bowl LVII. The Bills have a stacked roster which is built to win now, and if Allen can repeat his post-season form from last year, he has a terrific chance.
This is an award dominated by quarterbacks - it’s a passing league remember - and we have a ton of them queueing up right behind Allen. Headed by the GOAT TOM BRADY at 8/1 and Los Angeles Chargers prodigy JUSTIN HERBERT at 9s.
Kansas City superstar PATRICK MAHOMES is also on 9s with Rodgers priced at 10/1 for that unlikely hat-trick of MVP wins.
After that we hit the second tier of QBs, which includes last season’s Super Bowl combatants MATTHEW STAFFORD (Los Angeles Rams) and JOE BURROW (Cincinnati Bengals).
If you are looking for somebody with a live chance at bigger odds, how about second-year San Francisco QB TREY LANCE at 25/1? The Niners will go as he goes in 2022 after taking over the starting job from Jimmy Garoppolo.
If he is what the Niners expect him to be, then those odds could look pretty generous by October.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)
OPOY is often now the consolation prize for an offensive star who is not a QB and should really get more consideration for the MVP award, but is never going to get it.
Last year Rams WR COOPER KUPP claimed the prize after an astonishing campaign - maybe the best ever by a player at his position. Somehow he is still available at 12/1 in a wide open betting heat and should be stellar again in 2022.
Favourite heading into the season is Indianapolis Colts RB JONATHAN TAYLOR at 10/1, after he racked up a massive 1811 rushing yards in 2021. The arrival in Indy of QB Matt Ryan in the offseason should in theory make his job even easier in 2022.
This should be a battle between running backs and receivers and the other bulldozing back in contention is Tennessee’s DERRICK HENRY at 14/1. He is healthy again after a foot injury derailed his 2021 campaign.
The two other big-name wideouts in contention at 14s are San Francisco’s Swiss army knife DEEBO SAMUEL and the sensationally talented Minnesota Viking JUSTIN JEFFERSON.
The odds get to 18/1 before you will find a QB in the betting (see above about consolation prizes) with Buffalo’s Allen quoted at that price. Herbert, Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson are all on 20/1.
When it comes to outsiders, Cowboys WR CEEDEE LAMB looks tempting at 40/1. He will be the unquestioned WR1 in Dallas this year after Amari Cooper was traded to Cleveland, and should get a ton of targets from Dak Prescott. Expect a true breakout year from the former Oklahoma Sooner.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
AARON DONALD has redefined the position of defensive tackle in the NFL by being a true game wrecker rather than just performing grunt work and filling gaps. He has three DPOY awards in a glittering career, and is trading at 9/1 to take a fourth in 2022.
Pittsburgh OLB T.J. WATT claimed DPOY in 2021 and he is 8s along with the sensationally talented Dallas LB MICAH PARSONS. Favourite to claim the prize though is Cleveland DE MYLES GARRETT at 7/1.
San Francisco DE NICK BOSA will again be a popular pick at 12s, but we prefer the chances of his brother JOEY at 22/1.
The Chargers DE should be freed up to wreak even more havoc in 2022 by the arrival of DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (free agency) and OLB Khalil Mack (trade from Chicago).
NFL Coach of the Year (COTY)
Traditionally the most wide open betting heat of all, and the market for 2022 is no different. Our favourite is 14/1 in the shape of Chargers HC BRANDON STALEY.
After Staley we have a ton of coaches bracketed on 16s, including rookies MIKE MCDANIEL (Miami Dolphins), KEVIN O'CONNELL (Minnesota Vikings) and NATHANIEL HACKETT (Denver Broncos).
This is a really tough nut to crack in terms of winning picks, but you could do a lot worse than head over to Sky Bet and seek out a price for Pittsburgh Steelers HC MIKE TOMLIN.
He is a perennial winner who always gets the best out of his team - there are few, if any, who are better.
Not that much is expected from the Steelers in 2022, with rookie Kenny Pickett set to take over at QB after the retirement of the great Ben Roethlisberger. In our view the perfect circumstances for another overachieving season and some Coach of the Year consideration.
MIKE VRABEL claimed the prize in 2021 after leading Tennessee to the number 1 seed in the AFC, and he is a 25/1 shot to repeat.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Predicting how the newest arrivals in the NFL perform in their first season in the league is a ton of fun, ditto betting on it.
Last season the brilliant Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase finished strong to pip New England QB Mac Jones to the prize. Expect receivers to again make a big noise in 2022 with Pittsburgh’s PICKETT the only QB taken in Round 1 of the Draft.
Pickett is prominent in the betting - in fact he is co-favourite of three at 9/1 along with Steelers team-mate GEORGE PICKENS (WR) and New York Jets RB BREECE HALL. Next up come Saints WR CHRIS OLAVE (10/1) and Houston Texans RB DAMEON PIERCE.
One name who absolutely should be on your radar is Green Bay Packers WR ROMEO DOUBS. Green Bay has a Davante Adams-sized hole to fill at WR1 and Doubs could just be the guy.
He was only a fourth-round pick out of Nevada, but has transitioned brilliantly to the pro game and is currently available at 11/1.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
This award was a one-horse race in 2021 - Dallas LB Parsons first and the rest absolutely nowhere. We expect things to be much tighter in 2022.
Detroit Lions DE AIDAN HUTCHINSON - selected at #2 overall in the draft - is a clear favourite at 4/1 followed by another end in the shape of New York Giant KAYVON THIBODEAUX at 6s.
TRAVON WALKER, the athletic freak who played DE at national champions Georgia, was the surprise #1 overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars and he is available at 8s along with Green Bay LB QUAY WALKER and Baltimore safety KYLE HAMILTON.
Kansas City DE GEORGE KARLAFTIS somehow fell to #30 in Round 1 of the draft, and he might not be the sexiest pick out there. But 16/1 is far from terrible value for a player who already looks the part in the pros.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY)
This is the award which goes to a player who has returned from significant hardship - often a year ruined by health issues. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow pipped Dallas QB Dak Prescott in 2021 with both coming back from gruesome season-ending injuries in 2020.
The aforementioned Tennessee RB HENRY is joint favourite at 4/1 along with Washington Commanders RB BRIAN ROBINSON JR. then comes New Orleans Saints QB JAMEIS WINSTON at 11/2 and Carolina Panthers RB CHRSTIAN MCCAFFREY at 7s.
‘Run CMC’ might be a popular choice, but we prefer the chances of another Panther in the shape of newly-acquired QB BAKER MAYFIELD. He was traded away by the Browns for a bag of beans following their trade for Deshaun Watson, and it looks a steal of a deal for Carolina.
Mayfield played through significant injury for most of 2021, and paid the price as his stock in Cleveland fell. We are not ready yet though to give up on the number 1 overall pick, who had been stellar in 2020.
He will play with a chip on his shoulder in 2022 and is available at a tempting 12/1.
NFL Awards betting pointers
Time for a few (hopefully) helpful pointers to help you with ante-post picks:
- The awards are only for regular-season play - ie the playoffs DO NOT COUNT.
- The award winners are announced at an NFL Awards ceremony held during Super Bowl week each year. So you are looking at early February 2023 to collect, if your picks win.
- The MVP award is weighted massively towards quarterbacks - this should factor strongly into your thinking. No non-QB has won since Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson in 2012.
- The Offensive Player of the Year award (OPOY) gives non-QBs a much much better chance of winning. It’s almost like a trade-off these days.
- If you are thinking of picking a player who you know will miss multiple games through injury or suspension, don’t. Deshaun Watson is not winning anything after being banned for 11 games. Ditto DeAndre Hopkins with that six-game suspension upcoming.
- It is not easy to win an award two years running. It therefore figures it’s even harder to threepeat. While we love Rodgers, completing an MVP hat-trick will be mighty tough.
- While Offensive Rookie of the Year often favours QBs, that could change this year. The QB class of 2022 was incredibly weak with only one first-round pick (Pickett of the Steelers). The WR class on the other hand looks stellar - Chase won in 2021 and we would not be surprised to see a pass catcher grab the award once more.
- When you are betting on Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) or Defensive Rookie of the Year, consider ‘splash plays’ - ie things which capture people’s attention and jump off stat sheets. So sacks and interceptions - it is tough to win if you are a lockdown CB who no QB will throw at. Sacks play a massive part - there’s a reason why Aaron Donald wins awards playing at DT. He gets to the quarterback.
- When betting on Coach of the Year, do not just focus on teams who will contend for a Super Bowl. Remember that a) this is only about regular-season play and b) coaches have won this award with losing records. It is about results in regard to expectation. See above and Tomlin.
- Finally, these are personal awards, but the makeup of a player’s team has a huge bearing. If you’re looking at a WR and his team has a stellar group of receivers, maybe think again. As well as availability, this is about opportunity - your selections must put up significant numbers. So they need to be dominant on their own depth chart too.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (06/09/22)
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