NFC South offseason update: The ultimate one-horse race?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will open the season as a heavy favourite to claim the South title again after the ‘unretirement’ of the GOAT Tom Brady.

Behind Tampa we have a ragtag bunch of teams, all with their own problems. And none of them inspires as a true contender to challenge the Bucs.

New Orleans actually defeated Brady and co twice in 2021 - the second a shocking 9-0 shutout on Sunday Night Football, but it appears to be a team desperately trying to stave off the inevitability of Old Father Time and the salary cap.

Carolina meanwhile continues to wander in the QB wilderness while Atlanta has clearly decided it is time to blow everything up and rebuild.

NFC South in 2021: Easy for Brady and the Bucs

Tampa went into the 2021 season as the Super Bowl Champion and returned pretty much everybody on a stacked roster.

The Bucs would prove the sportsbooks right by claiming a comfortable victory in the race for the NFC South title. As we said though it did not come without bumps in the road - notably those two shocking losses to the Saints.

The first year of life without Drew Brees in New Orleans started pretty well - until Jameis Winston went down with a devastating knee injury during that first victory over the Bucs. After that it was tough sledding as (soon to be former) HC Sean Payton went through an assortment of backup QBs.

Carolina’s season split into two very different segments - that 3-0 start full of promise and that 2-12 finish. The latter has Matt Rhule very much on the hotseat after Sam Darnold imploded just like he did in New York.

Atlanta played most teams tough in the final year of the Matt Ryan era down in Georgia, but was never good enough to contend in a division where Tampa appears still to be way ahead. That exercise in futility was enough to convince Falcons brass it was time to rebuild.

Final Standings

1. 13-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. 9-8 New Orleans Saints
3. 7-10 Atlanta Falcons
4. 5-12 Carolina Panthers

Tampa goes into 2022 as a heavy favourite to win the division again (1/3 with Sky Bet right now) and here is where we stand after all the offseason moves.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022

• NFC South Odds: 1/3
• Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
• Head Coach: Todd Bowles

The odds for the NFC South in early March looked very very different…

Tom Brady had retired and the Buccaneers were a team with a ton of question marks heading towards free agency and the Draft. Then he unretired, and everything changed.

Brady’s U-turn was the catalyst for what turned out to be a pretty nice offseason in Florida, including what should be a seamless transition at HC from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles.

Shoring up the receiving corps was a need after a season which saw Chris Godwin go down with a serious knee injury while Antonio Brown simply melted down on that infamous early January day in MetLife Stadium.

Tampa signed Godwin to a three-year deal rather than have him play 2021 on the franchise tag, and the signing of former Falcon Russell Gage in free agency was a terrific pickup.

Offensive line was also a key area (gotta protect Tom) after the losses of starting guards Alex Cappa (signed for Cincinnati in free agency) and Ali Marpet - who retired at the aged of just 28.

Tampa reacted by triggering a trade with the Patriots to acquire Cappa’s replacement in Shaq Mason - who blocked for Brady for five years in Foxboro. It also swooped to acquire restricted free agent Fred Johnson from the Bengals, while re-siging the versatile Aaron Stinnie was another big plus.

The biggest move of all for the Bucs on the O-line though came with a new deal for center Ryan Jenson - three years, $39million - which was a necessity after those earlier losses.

Tampa also made important moves on defense, none bigger than hanging onto CB Carlton Davis via a three-year deal worth a total of $45million.

The Draft was clearly a nod to the future and areas of need for the Bucs - they loaded up with extra picks by sending their first-rounder to Jacksonville.

With Ndamukong Suh still unsigned, the Bucs used their first selection (33 overall) to beef up their front seven with the addition of DE Logan Hall out of Houston. The second second-rounder brought in more OL depth in the shape of Central Michigan tackle Luke Goedeke.

While Tampa did re-sign RB Leonard Fournette to a new three-year deal worth $21million (a little bit rich for us) it clearly is already looking past that with the selection of Arizona State back Rachaad White in Round Three.

Perhaps the biggest remaining question mark for the Bucs is whether Brady’s BFF Rob Gronkowski will come out of his hibernation to sign again for one more year. Tampa activated a TE fallback plan there with the addition of fourth-round draft pick Cade Otton out of Washington.

Summary: It is astonishing just how big a difference one move and a few weeks make in the NFL, but that is the power of Tom Brady. This team went from being potentially a second favourite to win the South to a dominant market leader in the blink of an eye.

It is difficult right now to see any other scenario that Tampa winning the division again, having shored up areas of need and re-signed several key pieces to ensure another Super Bowl run is absolutely a possibility in 2022.

As well as heading the betting to win the South, the Bucs are also now favourites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. That tells you everything about what they pulled off in the last three months.

New Orleans Saints in 2022

• NFC South Odds: 7/2
• Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
• Head Coach: Dennis Allen

In 2021 we had Year 1 AD in New Orleans (After Drew) and this year we have another changing of the guard following the decision of long-time head coach Sean Payton to “retire”.

Maybe trying to win games with four QBs in 2021 was enough to convince Payton he needed a break (nobody expects him to stay retired), but it will be fascinating to see how the Saints cope without his huge influence on the franchise.

Promoting Payton’s DC Dennis Allen to replace him makes sense, it provides continuity and Allen’s unit was a huge strength in 2021 (look at how they dealt with Brady and the Bucs, twice).

The Saints, as they always seem to, started the league year by restructuring their way out of ‘salary cap hell’, and clearly they are not ready yet to rebuild.

Instead New Orleans kicked the financial can down the road once more and went all in for 2022 with the belief it can again contend. We did not like some of the results.

The Saints overpaid Philadelphia horribly in a trade to acquire a second first-round pick and then paid again to move up to take Ohio State WR Chris Olave at 11 overall. Really nice player, terrible price paid to get him.

New Orleans lost its cornerstone LT Terron Armstead to Miami in free agency, so replacing him became an enormous need. That was achieved via that second first-round draft pick, used to select Trevor Penning out of Northern Iowa. ‘Nasty and mean’ he may be, but we expect a few growing pains.

One thing we no longer have this season in New Orleans is any hint of QB controversy. Jameis is THE GUY after signing a two-year deal worth $28million. The Taysom Hill experiment meanwhile is over as he will now move to TE. Signing Andy Dalton gives the Saints a veteran option behind Winston but let’s hope they don’t have to use him…

The Saints did make some nice moves too during this offseason, and you can include the signing of WR Jarvis Landry in that. Savvy veteran who can still produce and is a good locker-room presence, and also incredibly good value for money.

Defensively Allen restocked as well, notably in the secondary. New Orleans lost star safety Marcus Williams to Baltimore, but found a terrific replacement in the shape of former Chief Tyrann Mathieu. ‘The Honey Badger’ is the ultimate Swiss army knife on the back end.

New Orleans doubled up at the safety position by also signing Marcus Maye away from the Jets - a unit which excelled in 2021 should again be very good.

Summary: The ultimate mixed bag here, some moves we loved and some we hated. You have to admire the Saints though in some ways for the refusal to believe that their window is ever closed.

GM Mickey Loomis was once again aggressive in everything he did during this offseason, and we’ll find out in September whether those moves pay off.

We expect the defense to once again be stellar but it’s offensively where the question marks come. Much will depend on Winston to a) come back healthy after that knee injury and b) continue to eradicate the mistakes which made his spell in Tampa a disaster.

The receiving corps had huge question marks with departures and the injury status of Michael Thomas, but the additions of Olave and Landry are significant boosts.

Up front the development of Penning will be fascinating to watch - as we said he might be a raw diamond but it will take a little time for him to finesse his technique to elite pro level.

Carolina Panthers in 2022

• NFC South Odds: 12/1
• Super Bowl Odds: 100/1
• Head Coach: Matt Rhule

If you don’t have a quarterback in the National Football League, you have nothing. That’s why Matt Rhule is on the hotseat entering Year 3 of a seven-year deal in Charlotte.

Rhule made a strong start to his coaching career in the pro ranks, but things have fallen off significantly in recent months. Notably because of his failure to find an answer at the game’s most important position.

Trading for Sam Darnold and picking up his fifth-year option looked like it might pay off when the Panthers started 2021 with a 3-0 run. After that they were horrible and Darnold turned back into the man we’d seen stink out the Big Apple with the New York Jets.

After failing to land Deshaun Watson and watching a string of other top QBs change teams in the offseason, Carolina will again likely start Darnold in September 2022. Not good.

The Panthers did manage to take a low-cost gamble at QB with the selection of Ole Miss standout Matt Corral in Round 3 of the Draft. It really is boom or bust there, could be a steal if he outperforms a QB class which really did not excite pro scouting departments.

The Panthers were pretty quiet in free agency - probably saving their dollars in the misguided hope that Deshaun Watson would decide Carolina was the ideal place to take the next step in his career development. Actually, make that incredibly misguided.

Offensive line is another area which required plenty of upgrades, and Carolina at least took a step in the right direction there by signing former Rams guard Austin Corbett. Selecting NC State tackle Ikem Ewonu sixth overall in the draft should give the team a franchise cornerstone for a decade to come. Protection in recent times has been sorely lacking.

Summary: We don’t like the vibes for Carolina heading towards the new season and Rhule enters the year as one of the favourites to lose his job come January 2023.

The Panthers were horrible in 2021 after that 3-0 start, and it is almost impossible to believe Darnold can suddenly become the player scouts envisaged when he came out of school. So unless Corral turns out to be a revelation almost immediately, things could get ugly fast.

You could argue that Carolina should not have even gone all in for Deshaun given he had that ‘no trade clause’ in his Houston contract, and we would not argue. It’s fine to swing, just do not swing and miss.

Atlanta Falcons in 2022

• NFC South Odds: 18/1
• Super Bowl Odds: 100/1
• Head Coach: Arthur Smith

Early in 2022 the Falcons decided it was time to start over. We love the decision.

This season will be very much a holding pattern for Atlanta after it traded starting QB Matt Ryan to Indianapolis - the Falcons remain on the hook for the biggest dead cap hit in NFL history

when it comes to Ryan’s contract. A cool $40million in 2022.

In total, Atlanta has a total of $62million of dead money still on the books this year, with former WR superstar Julio Jones accounting for $15million. Easy to see then why this year made most sense to tear things down.

The Falcons have taken two shots for now at replacing Ryan - acquiring FA Marcus Mariota and selecting Cincinnati standout Desmond Ridder in the third round of the NFL Draft. Neither costs a lot, and both have potential upside (Ridder much more so).

Wide receiver, once a great strength for Atlanta, had become a huge weakness in the last 12 months following the decision to trade Julio, the suspension of Calvin Ridley and the departure in free agency of Russell Gage.

The Falcons took a step back towards the land of the living by using its first-round pick to take USC phenom Drake London. It also restocked with some low-cost acquisitions in free agency.

While unsurprisingly Atlanta was not a massive player in free agency, it was able to hang onto two of its most prized talents - DL Grady Jarrett and LT Jake Matthews. Jarrett re-signed for three years and $51million while Matthews is on the books for another three years at a cost of $55million.

The defense also got some attention in the Draft and we loved the selection of Penn State DE Arnold Ebiketie. He has serious upside and fills an area of drastic need.

Summary: Don’t expect too much from Atlanta in 2022, they are not exactly tanking but the offseason move to trade Ryan tells you it is rebuild time.

We actually love some of the moves they have made so far, and none preclude them from swinging for the fences with another QB in the 2023 Draft.

If Ridder pans out then this could be a terrific class for Atlanta, the perfect way to start the post-Matt Ryan era.

Everything this year will lay the groundwork for the future and provide important intel. In 2023 we expect the Falcons to be properly back in the game.

Odds correct at 1425 BST (10/06/22)

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