The Jaguars came within three minutes of the Super Bowl last season but can their fearsome defence hold off the improving Texans and Titans?
Predicted Finish:
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Houston Texans
- Tennessee Titans
- Indianapolis Colts
Our predicted finish has been Price Boosted to 8/1 with Sky Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 10-6
Coach: Doug Marrone
Super Bowl odds: 22/1 | Division odds 15/8
They were less than three minutes away from the Super Bowl last season so not much needed changing about the Jags, who have retained most of their fearsome defence from last season that ranked in the top two in a sack full (pun intended) of defensive categories.
The much-maligned Blake Bortles showed big signs of improvement last year but again he’ll be largely handing the ball off to Leonard Fournette and the NFL’s best rushing attack from last season. They’ve also improved here by adding All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell to beef up the protection for the QB and open up some running room for the tailback.
The Jags' main shortcomings are at wide receiver after the Allens of Hurns and Robinson left and Marquise Lee went down injured, so tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins could play a big part especially in the red zone, but make no mistake this is a run-first team once again.
Jacksonville have a tougher schedule and an improved division but sound defence and solid running games get you places in a hurry in the NFL and they remain as good as they come in those facets of the game so have enough to repeat as division champs.
Houston Texans
Last season: 4-12
Coach: Bill O’Brien
Super Bowl odds: 22/1 | Division odds 13/8
It was car crash stuff for the Texans last season after they lost defensive stalwart JJ Watt and new quarterback star Deshaun Watson – who only played seven games but threw a record 19 touchdown passes and looked electric before a torn ACL cost him his season.
Having Watson back gives Houston a special x-factor at quarterback and if he can regain the level he showed before injury then the Texans could have a huge bounce-back season and really challenge for a third play-off appearance in four years.
Watt’s return is also like a new signing, and a new signing of a dominant defender in the NFL at that. Signing play-making safety Tyrann Mathieu is a canny move while speedy wide receiver Sammie Coates offers an intriguing option across from the imposing DeAndre Hopkins, who can run riot on opposing defensive backs when at full speed.
Houston are the 13/8 favourites to win the division with their star men back, but more likely they’ll be fighting it out with the Titans for a wildcard spot in the play-offs.
Tennessee Titans
Last season: 9-7
Coach: Mike Vrabel
Super Bowl odds: 33/1 | Division odds 7/2
It was a rollercoaster ride for the Titans last season who looked to have blown their play-off chances with three straight defeats only to beat the Jags on the final Sunday to make the post-season. They beat the Chiefs thanks to an amazing play by Marcus Mariota who caught his own rebounded pass to score a touchdown.
They looked a decent team at times and have no doubt improved over the summer with cornerback Malcolm Butler and running back Dion Lewis both coming in from the Patriots. Lewis will offer an elusive contrast to Derrick Henry’s battering ram running as he replaces DeMarco Murray as their lead back.
Mariota certainly has talent at QB with his arm and his legs and looks an elite triggerman in the making if he can find a high level of consistency – in a similar fashion to his team needing to avoid some of the poor defeats from last year.
These Titans are tough to predict as they could easily top this division if things go their way, but odds are they’ll be scrapping for a wildcard spot.
Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 4-12
Coach: Frank Reich
Super Bowl odds: 66/1 | Division odds 5/1
Andrew Luck is finally back for the Colts! But since he’s been away the division has become a whole lot tougher and the Colts are nowhere near challenging the other three in the AFC South so this is very much a rebuilding year for Indianapolis.
Keeping Luck upright is the priority, and to that end they drafted guards Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith to protect their main asset as he returns from the shoulder injury that kept him out for the entire campaign last year.
Former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich is the new head coach of a team that could only beat the Browns, 49ers and injury-plagued Texans last season – it promises to be another tough slog this season in what is an improved AFC South.
Verdict:
Jacksonville had one foot in the Super Bowl before they blew a ten-point fourth-quarter lead against the Patriots and that loss will still be stinging them as they look to repeat as AFC South champions. They ended a ten-year play-off drought last year and have retained arguably the best defensive unit in the NFL along with the league-leading running attack. It’ll be tougher this year but 'Sacksonville' are taken to finish top of the pile again.
It’s an intriguing division with the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans both capable of finishing top but more likely fighting it out for a wildcard spot in the play-offs. Houston have defensive monster JJ Watt and electric young quarterback Deshaun Watson back from injury and those two playmakers just give them the edge.
The Titans have certainly improved on last season but will need to iron out their consistency issues and may just come up short in head-to-head games with Houston. Andrew Luck returns for the Colts but it looks like being another long, hard slog for Indy.
