NFL betting tips: Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
1pt Over 51.5 match points at 21/10 (Bet365)
1pt Justin Fields 1+ interception at 4/5 (Bet365)
1pt Brian Robinson to score a brace at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Commanders -6.5 @ 5/6
- Total: Over 43.5 @ 5/6
The Chicago Bears looked set to seal their first win of the season on Sunday against the Denver Broncos, but they squandered a 28-7 lead as they conceded 24 unanswered points, including the 51-yard game winning field goal with just under two minutes to go. The Bears have now lost 14 consecutive games and face a Commanders side who sit at 2-2 and took the reigning NFC Champions to overtime last time out.
It has been a disastrous start to the season for Chicago. Quarterback Justin Fields has looked lost – his rushing ability was his defining feature and that has vanished in 2023 thus far – while his passing has been lacklustre to say the least, even with the addition of WR DJ Moore. Their free agent signings have been disappointing, and the defence has been a pushover – ranking rock bottom for sacks with just two on the season.
The Bears did at least look functional on offence against the Broncos, but this was against a dismal defence. Since 1981, Denver now has the worst defence ever according to DVOA through their first four games, so perhaps it was no surprise to see the Bears get into gear. Thursday night will be a test to see if this uptake continues, against an up & down Washington unit.
The Commanders defence looks stout on paper – but they have just conceded 30+ points for three consecutive games (albeit the last two were against the Bills & the Eagles). The team has racked up 13 sacks alongside five takeaways, but they are still conceding over 350 yards per game, alongside 30 points per game. These are two struggling defences, allowing a combined 64.3 points per game. The over has hit in every game Chicago has played this season – it’s worth backing again on Thursday and I’d throw in a few more points with over 51.5 points at 21/10.
Sam Howell and Justin Fields are young, raw quarterbacks, and they are holding the ball for far too long. Howell has taken a league high 24 sacks already on the season, with Fields ranking third with 17. Backing Chicago’s pass rush is a step too far, but we can count on Washington’s powerful defensive line getting pressure on Fields – Washington’s sack line isn’t out at the time of writing, but it’s definitely worth taking the over.
Speaking of that pressure, Justin Fields has thrown an interception in every game this season – you have to go back to Week 16 2022 for his last game without a pick. Washington may only have two interceptions on the season, but the pressure we can expect their defensive line to get on Fields will lead to more mistakes from the quarterback – 1+ interception at 4/5 looks value.
On offence for Washington, quarterback Sam Howell has been erratic, with four touchdowns and five interceptions. A safer bet will be running back Brian Robinson. The second-year player is fresh from a touchdown performance (he should have had two if not for an unfortunate fumble in the end zone) against the Eagles and faces a soft Chicago defence.
Only Denver has allowed more yards & touchdowns to the position, with Chicago conceding 618 yards & eight touchdowns to running backs through four games. Robinson is the lead back for the Commanders and has 14 redzone touches this season, with five coming with just goal-to-go. He’s going to get volume this game and there’s a huge opportunity for him to score, back the brace at 6/1.
On paper this is one of the worst TNF matchups we’ll have all year long, but with how these two defences are playing we can expect a bounty of points. Washington’s quality will see them take the W, but don’t be shocked to see Chicago run up the scoreboard, even if this comes in garbage time.
Score prediction: Commanders 31-24 Bears
Preview posted at 1440 BST on 04/10/23
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