AFC North offseason update and odds: A stellar race in prospect

The 2021 champion Cincinnati Bengals appear to have improved coming off that run to Super Bowl LVI, while the Cleveland Browns have added a true franchise QB to an already stacked roster in the shape of Deshaun Watson.

Baltimore meanwhile, should be healthy again after an injury-ravaged 2021, and a formidable foe on the back of yet another excellent NFL Draft.

Pittsburgh is very much the outsider in 2022 after the retirement of the great Ben Roethlisberger. As we’ve told you very often, if you don’t have a QB in the NFL, you have nothing. The Steelers are now beginning their search for a new one.

Here OddsCritic looks at how the AFC North landscape lies heading towards the 2022 season.

AFC North in 2021: The thrill of the Chase

The AFC North in 2021 was something of a race to the bottom with the Bengals coming out ahead of three ailing franchises in the end.

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase got really hot when it really mattered in a sensational stretch late in the season to push Cincinnati ahead in the AFC North. That hot streak would of course eventually take them to the very brink of a world championship.

Pittsburgh somehow managed to limp into the playoffs despite massively diminished QB play from Roethlisberger as he staggered towards retirement, and a miserable offensive line.

Cleveland imploded with former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield trying bravely to play through significant injury and failing miserably.

Baltimore was easy meat for Burrow, Chase and others thanks to an injury-ravaged secondary while Lamar Jackson also struggled with injury and illness.

We expect another tight race in 2022, but for now here is how the standings looked when the 2021 regular season ended.

Final Standings

1. 10-7 Cincinnati Bengals
2. 9-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
3. 8-9 Cleveland Browns
4. 8-9 Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals in 2022

• AFC North Odds: 2/1
• Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
• Head Coach: Zac Taylor

Cincinnati was one of the great success stories of the NFL in 2021, a downtrodden franchise suddenly becoming a major player thanks to a couple of superstar offensive playmakers and some smart free agency moves.

Joe Burrow and college BFF Ja’Marr Chase are doing exactly what they did at LSU with the Bengals, striking fear into opposing defenses. Cincinnati’s failure to beat the Rams and win a Lombardi came down to one key failing though - its offensive line.

The Bengals made huge strides to upgrading that leaky front in free agency with a trio of major moves:

• RT La’el Collins was a steal when Cincy picked him up following his release by Dallas.
• Former Patriots C Ted Karras was a terrific signing to beef up the interior of the line.
• Guard Alex Kappa gets a lucrative Bengals deal after leaving Brady and the Bucs

All of those signings significantly overhauled what was this team’s one major weakness in 2021 and give us great hope that the Bengals will again be for real in 2022.

Burrow lost one of his offensive weapons in free agency as TE C.J. Uzomah left for the New York Jets, but Cincy filled the gap by signing former Atlanta Falcon Hayden Hurst.

On the defensive side of the ball Cincy did lose DT Larry Ogunjobi to division rival Pittsburgh but bringing back CB Eli Apple on a low-cost deal was smart as it does provide depth and veteran savvy in the secondary.

That secondary was in need of updates in the NFL Draft, and boy did it get some. Cincy used its first two picks on addressing it.

Michigan star Daxton Hill was selected at the back end of Round 1 and he has the versatility to play safety, corner or slot corner. Position flex is a big deal in today’s NFL.

Round 2 saw the Bengals take Nebraska CB Cam Taylor-Britt and he will battle immediately for a starting job in 2022.

Cincinnati’s third-round selection was a nod to the loss of Ogunjobi as the Bengals claimed Florida DT Zachary Carter.

The Bengals didn’t shy away from making further OL moves in the Draft either, with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson being taken in Round 4.

Summary: In short we love what Cincinnati has done in the offseason, and it looks like a significantly improved team heading into 2022. And that coming off an agonising Super Bowl loss.

It had one major weakness and it attacked it aggressively - those offensive line upgrades were terrific and they should really improve the unit in a big way.

The Draft attacked the other real area of need, the secondary, and the Bengals come away with a very strong roster to take on a tough division in 2022.

Right now the Bengals appear to be the standout value in the AFC North betting and a really nice Super Bowl bet too at around 20/1.

Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022

• AFC North Odds: 9/1
• Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
• Head Coach: Mike Tomlin

It is year 1 of the post-Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh after one of the league’s truly great quarterbacks finally hung up his cleats.

The 2021 version of ‘Big Ben’ was a pale shadow of the man who led the Steelers to two Super Bowl titles, and Pittsburgh somehow reached the playoffs despite that. They have a terrific defense and great coaching yet again from Mike Tomlin to thank for that.

Pittsburgh has gone multiple routes in its bid to replace Roethlisberger, taking Pitt standout Kenny Pickett in Round 1 of the Draft and signing former Bear and Bill Mitch Trubisky on a two-year free-agent deal.

Neither of those moves preclude Pittsburgh from swinging for the fences again in 2023 if they don’t work out, and it remains to be seen who will win the starting job in 2022.

Pittsburgh made some nice moves in free agency too - we loved the signing of Bears guard James Daniel for an average cost of a little over $8million per year. Great business and attacks an area of great need. Former Vikings C Mason Cole meanwhile further solidifies that O-line.

The defensive side of the ball also had a couple of excellent additions - former Bengals DT Ogunjobi and ex-Jags LB Myles Jack. Both add real quality to an already stellar unit.

Pittsburgh added secondary depth too, signing former Bills CB Levi Wallace and Cowboys safety Damontae Kazee.

The most high-profile loss for the Steelers in free agency was WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, who bolted for Kansas City on a cheap deal. Fellow wideouts James Washington (Dallas) and Ray-Ray McCloud (San Francisco) also moved to new teams.

QB was obviously need #1 heading into the Draft, and once that was addressed with the selection of Pickett, the Steelers set about restocking the WR room.

Taking Georgia deep threat George Pickens in Round 2 gives Pickett and/or Trubisky a downfield option right away and he could be a star in the pros. Memphis star Calvin Austin III meanwhile was taken in Round 4 and he should operate in the slot.

Pittsburgh also needed some defensive line depth, and they addressed that by selecting DeMarvin Leal from Texas A&M in Round 3.

Summary: We really like a lot of the offseason work from the Steelers, but in 2022 they will live or die by the QB. A tale as old as time in today’s NFL.

Taking a shot with Pickett in an underwhelming quarterback class is undoubtedly a risk, but this roster is good enough elsewhere to justify it. The signing of Trubisky meanwhile is low-risk and high-reward.

With stars like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick again anchoring a fine defense the Steelers will once again maximise everything they have with the excellent Tomlin at the helm.

Right now though they could not be backed with any confidence to challenge for a division title.

Baltimore Ravens in 2022

• AFC North Odds: 7/4
• Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
• Head Coach: John Harbaugh

Baltimore fell apart in the second half of the 2021 season as injuries - particularly in a decimated secondary - made it easy meat for quality QBs.

Never more was that emphasised than in the key Week 16 matchup with Cincinnati, when Burrow carved up the Ravens for 525 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Brutal.

Baltimore should have what has historically been a strength back to full health in 2022, and the big-bucks signing of former Saints safety Marcus Williams ($14million APY) only improves things. Former Broncos CB Kyle Fuller meanwhile adds depth to the unit.

The other noteworthy free-agent signing for the Ravens was former Jets RT Morgan Moses, who comes on board at a very affordable $5million APY.

Baltimore has absolutely crushed the Draft down the years, quite simply no team does it better. And 2022 might be the best example yet.

The Ravens, picking at numbers 14 and 25 in Round 1, managed to come away with two of the consensus best players in the Draft. Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton and Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum. The second choice came via the trade which sent WR Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown to Arizona.

Baltimore was more than happy to take a swing at terrific Michigan OLB David Ojabo in Round 2, despite the fact a torn Achilles sustained during his pro day could rule him out for 2022. Smart move.

The Ravens appeared to get fantastic value again in Round 3 with the selection of Connecticut DT Travis Jones. He should be the future starter at nose tackle.

Summary: Great offseason for the Ravens, who limped through the second half of 2021 almost unrecognisable from the team which has been so good in recent years.

It wasn’t just the secondary which caused the ills as QB Lamar Jackson missed the final four games of the season with an ankle injury.

The Draft was great for Baltimore and if Jackson can return to anything the MPV level of 2019, this team will challenge again.

Cleveland Browns in 2022

• AFC North Odds: 9/4
• Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
• Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski

The Cleveland Browns were a popular dark horse bet to win the Super Bowl in 2021 - the roster was stacked and Baker Mayfield was ready to make a run at MVP too.

Fast forward three months and everything was burning in the Dawg Pound as Mayfield, hampered by injuries, imploded down the stretch. The result was a losing record for a team which had been expected to go deep into the post-season.

Now, instead of Mayfield getting a massive contract extension, he has been traded to Carolina for a bag of beans. And Cleveland has a new answer at QB, and he came at a high cost.

The Browns sent three first-round draft picks and more to Houston to acquire Deshaun Watson, despite the fact he could still face an NFL suspension at some stage due to allegations of sexual misconduct.

Cleveland also traded for a new weapon for Watson to throw to in 2022, with a terrific deal for Dallas star Amari Cooper. The cost was a steal = just a solitary fifth-round pick.

The Browns also made a key decision at TE, allowing Austin Hooper to bolt for Tennessee in free agency and inking David Njoku to a massive new deal worth almost $14million APY.

Other major news in free agency for Cleveland saw DE Jadeveon Clowney return on a one-year deal worth $10million while CB Denzel Ward got a lucrative contract extension.

As well as signing Watson, Cleveland made a change at backup QB. Mayfield, Case Keenum and Nick Mullens all exited stage left while Jacoby Brissett comes in from the Miami Dolphins.

When it came to the Draft the Browns had limited chips to play with after the Watson trade, but they did have three third-round picks to parlay.

Purdue WR David Bell filled an area of absolute need while UBA DE Alex Wright adds important depth to the defensive front. Mississippi State CB Martin Emerson though was something of a head scratcher - another DB was not something the Browns desperately needed.

Summary: Cleveland has bet the house, and then some, on Deshaun Watson. And the 2022 season alone will not determine whether it was all worth it.

This is a talented roster (we’d like to see another WR added though) and it now has a true franchise QB at the controls.

The question mark though remains about just how often Watson will be available in 2022, and for that reason we could not even think about including Cleveland in any of our pre-season NFL parlay picks right now.

Odds correct at 1030 BST (08/07/22)

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