Our team provide their view on another thrilling weekend of sport in a bid to unearth some antepost value.
Racing
Cracking Arc bet
It seems so absurd to the outsider that connections of Cracksman are shying away from a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe challenge, with the protection of the horse’s future career as a four-year-old put forward as the reason.
That doesn’t seem plausible and it’s more likely that trainer John Gosden doesn’t want his star three-year-old colt taking on his star three-year-old filly, Enable, the Arc favourite, in this prestigious contest.
I’m not sure why that would be the case. It must be better to have the first and second favourite for the race rather than ‘just’ the favourite, mustn’t it? Yes, they are owned by different connections, but Paul Nicholls managed similar situations well in the Kauto Star and Denman era in the National Hunt game.
Industry expert James Knight makes a good point in an excellent blog on the saga. "Surely even Enable’s owner, Khalid Abdullah, would love to have Cracksman in the race? If his star filly fails to win the race, then what better compensation could there possibly be than to see his star stallion, Frankel, land the biggest prize in the sport?"
It’s a very good point and in a weak renewal, except for Enable, owner Anthony Oppenheimer must be privately thinking this is a golden opportunity to win another Arc, whatever he says publicly.
And Cracksman hardly looks like a horse that needs the assistance of Frankie Dettori to produce his best. The world’s finest jockeys would be lining up to ride him at Chantilly were he given the green light and he’d be a very strong second favourite in that situation.
So, Cracksman, for the Arc (the 2017 Arc). At 10/1. Is it a good bet, or is it throwing money down the drain when connections have consistently stated it is ‘unlikely’ he will run in the race?
The wriggle room for a U-turn is there. In the build-up to the big day it will become more obvious that it’s Enable and not much else going for the best race in Europe. Taking everything into account, double-figure prices look big and the chance worth taking. (Ben Linfoot)
Angel the real deal
Harry Angel is 6/4 for the Qipco Champions Sprint and though the race is still six weeks ahead you can absolutely understand why. The bookies that have him at evens are nearer the mark and in all likelihood, he will be odds-on come the day if he gets there fit and well.
While the son of Dark Angel blitzed the Haydock Sprint Cup field in brutish fashion, in the style of a real top-notcher, proving that testing conditions hold no fear for him, Caravaggio was in his box ahead of a tilt at the Flying Five at the Curragh the following day.
Aidan O'Brien's charge did his bit by getting back on the winning trail, but the bare form is a world away from what Harry Angel achieved on Saturday and he’ll have to improve significantly if he’s to uphold the Commonwealth Cup form from Royal Ascot.
We know Harry Angel is better than he was in June, but that’s not the case with Caravaggio. As short as 7/2, those prices look very short about the son of Scat Daddy, with Harry Angel strongly fancied to cement his crown as champion sprinter at the Berkshire track next month. (Ben Linfoot)
Golf
Backing 6/5 shots a year in advance is not for everyone, and in this case there's no guarantee the odds will shorten considerably, but the United States are vastly overpriced to win next year's Ryder Cup.
Home advantage has long been considered a big factor in the biennial event and it's true that the Americans have not won away from home since 1993.
But they very nearly won in Wales, they very nearly won in Spain, and the new batch of players carries no scars from these narrow defeats. In fact, there would be altogether more pressure on them at home after what happened at Medinah in 2012.
The last Ryder Cup was one-sided. Europe, compelled by their selection policy to have Andy Sullivan and not have Paul Casey, were weaker on paper and destroyed on the course.
The United States' worst performers in that 17-11 win were JB Holmes and Jimmy Walker, neither of whom appears likely to make the next team. Major champion Justin Thomas will replace one of them; the queue to replace the other is long. It seems certain their entire side will be what you might term world-class players.
Europe, meanwhile, still have to work out a way to get Casey back in the side, and then how to get the best out of a player who has not always been popular among his team-mates. They have their own likely-looking debutants - Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm the standouts - but there are concerns about the rest. Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy are currently nursing injuries; Henrik Stenson will be 42, Sergio Garcia 38. Ian Poulter still faces a battle to qualify; Lee Westwood's years of experience seem unlikely to be a factor.
On paper, the USA are 100% certainties to be stronger by whichever measure you choose. That they have to play in France is therefore nowhere near enough to make Europe favourites. The most likely winners of the Ryder Cup are the holders.
Why back them now? Well, because it's clear that US team golf is currently at its most devastating. The Solheim Cup was a riot, the Walker Cup even more so, and something resembling next year's Ryder Cup side will soon line-up in the Presidents Cup, which the USA are 4/11 favourites to win and should do comfortably.
I am certain that the 2011 and 2013 Solheim Cup victories for Europe were in part inspired by the men winning back the Ryder Cup in 2010 and so spectacularly defending it in 2012. Walker Cup victories for the Great Britain and Ireland sides of 2011 and 2015 also fed off this success, no doubt.
The tide has now turned. USA hold all four major team trophies. That should still be the case after the 2018 Ryder Cup. They are a bet at the odds. (Ben Coley)
Tennis
If there’s one thing we have learnt from tennis this year it is not to write off the game’s best players.
The two very greatest, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, have completed a stunning sweep of the four Grand Slams, completed with the former’s triumph at the US Open.
Bookies have naturally reacted by shortening the Spaniard for all other markets, including installing him as the favourite for next year’s Australian Open despite Sunday’s win representing his first hard-court triumph since January 2014.
In hand the odds-compilers have pushed out the odds of Novak Djokovic (7/2 with various) and Andy Murray (5/1 with BetVictor), pretty much on exactly the same logic as why they lengthened Nadal and Federer’s odds out for this year’s events.
Both Djokovic and Murray decided to take the remainder of the year off to get their bodies in the right condition after years of domination. For me, that should be more of a positive than a negative for their chances of starting 2017 in top shape, especially if Djokovic can get his head back in the right place.
If he can then 7/2 looks a huge price for the event's most successful player in his prime, otherwise Murray will have a door left open to improve on his six final defeats. (Tim Clement)
NFL
The opening Sunday of the NFL provided its traditional mixture of the weird and wonderful with surprise packages both good and bad.
New England had already been sunk on Thursday night and another heavyweight Seattle followed suit after an attritional 17-9 defeat at the hands of Green Bay.
The Seahawks will be going nowhere very quickly if they don’t sort out an awful offensive line that left quarterback Russell Wilson running for his life and an inability to find the end zone against a very aggressive Packers defence is a worry.
However, there is no need to chuck the baby out with the bath water – a team with the coaching, quality and pride of Seattle have both the time and nous to get things sorted out in that department to a suitable level and a defence that can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 17 points at Lambeau Field – none by half-time – is going to help them win games.
Perhaps the nicest surprise was to see Jared Goff and the LA Rams offence find their mojo – they haven’t had it to lose yet – in a 46-9 romp at the Coliseum over Indianapolis.
The Colts gave them a serious leg up with a putrid effort but 2016 No.1 draft pick Goff threw the ball with poise to post figures of 21-29-306 and a superbly delivered ball to rookie Cooper Kupp in the end zone.
Their defence has always been a bit of a beast so early momentum on the other side of the ball is a huge boost for rookie head coach Sean McVay and it will be interesting to see if they can do it again up the coast at San Francisco before real tests of their credentials against Dallas and Seattle. (David John)
