WGC-Match Play: Day three preview

17:09 · FRI March 23, 2018

After landing the odds with a confident selection on Thursday, don't miss Ben Coley's best bet for day three at the WGC-Match Play.

Recommended bets

2pts Dylan Frittelli to beat Shubhankar Sharma at 11/10

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

A strange thing has happened in the outright market for the WGC-Match Play: the favourite, Justin Thomas, has drifted in the betting after winning his match on Thursday.

This is because, elsewhere in the draw, the cards fell right for the man he'd replaced at the head of the market. Rory McIlroy is firmly back in the mix having beaten Jhonattan Vegas and will likely progress to the last-16 if taking care of Brian Harman today, which he's a general 4/7 chance to do.

I wouldn't be in a rush to underestimate Harman, though. The left-hander built an amateur career on upsetting the odds, so often expected to be overwhelmed by the more demonstrable skills of a peer only to find a way to beat them. He's been in good nick for much of the season and prices upwards of 2/1 probably don't quite to justice to the talents of the world number 22, who putts the lights out.

Chances are, however, that McIlroy will progress and that paves the way for a potential semi-final with Thomas - if the latter can get the better of Francesco Molinari today and a couple of obstacles thereafter. As with Harman, any prices north of 2/1 about the Italian underestimate him a little and while Thomas improved to beat Patton Kizzire yesterday, he's not been altogether impressive thus far.

On the other side of the draw, Alex Noren and Ian Poulter are flying the flag for Europe while Louis Oosthuizen carries our outright hopes into a must-win clash with Jason Day, but all eyes will be on a showdown between Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed in Group 4.

Spieth is even-money in a place with Reed around the 11/8 mark and there doesn't appear a great deal wrong with these prices. As with most, I imagine, I'd fall down on Reed if pushed but Spieth will be right up for this and is, lest we forget, the superior player. He's still flying under the radar a little - particularly in the Masters market where he's priced alongside Justin Rose rather than McIlroy - but that will all change if he can down his team-mate.

These are just a few of many fascinating storylines today but the best bet might just be in a dead rubber, with Dylan Frittelli taken to beat Shubhankar Sharma.

The latter has shot to fame over the last six or so months and it's clear his future is incredibly bright, but he's having to learn very quickly what it means to be a global player and perhaps those exertions are catching up with him.

Frittelli is just a little further down the line in terms of making the necessary adjustments but what I really like here is that the South African has big motivation to win what would otherwise look to be a game of no consequence.

A former Texas Longhorn, Frittelli will be desperate to secure a victory of any kind at a golf course he's played countless times in practice and that, combined with the fact he played much the better golf of the pair on Thursday, makes him a decent proposition at odds-against.

Phil Mickelson got out of jail yesterday and scored better than Rafa Cabrera Bello, today's opponent, which makes even-money tempting, while Ian Poulter is also considered at the same sort price to beat Kevin Chappell.

Poulter was buzzing after his victory over Daniel Berger and his ability to make a score despite hitting the ball poorly could frustrate Chappell, as it did Tommy Fleetwood on Wednesday, but on balance the standout bet is Frittelli and that'll do for me.