Golf betting tips: Final day preview of WGC-Match Play Championship
Golf betting tips: WGC-Match Play, Sunday March 28
2pts win double Victor Perez to beat Billy Horschel & Matt Kuchar to beat Scottie Scheffler at 16/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts win Matt Kuchar to win WGC-Dell Match Play at 7/2
We’re down to the final four players at this year’s WGC–Dell Match Play and no one can say it’s not been an event of shocks and surprises.
Right from the start of the first day when Ian Poulter flew out of the gates against Rory McIlroy, the game's biggest names were under pressure and by the time the group stages were done and dusted on Friday evening only one of the 16 seeds, Jon Rahm, had made it through to the last-16 stage.
With Rahm then falling in the quarter finals to local man Scottie Scheffler, we are now left with four players, Scheffler, Victor Perez, Billy Horschel and Matt Kuchar who were ranked 30, 31, 32 & 52 respectively coming in to the week. Well done to anyone who predicted that.
So let’s take a closer look at the two semi-finals.
Billy Horschel v Victor Perez (1505 BST)
First off at just after 3pm UK time is Victor Perez versus Billy Horschel and I’m taking Perez to win this.
After going bogey-free and 7-under on his card on Friday to see off Sungjae Im and clinch his group, Perez was superb again on Saturday, firstly seeing off Robert MacIntyre 5&4 and then matchplay veteran Sergio Garcia 4&3.
Perez, who attended college in neighbouring New Mexico, made 10 birdies in the 29 holes he played on Saturday against only one bogey and he showed no sign of nerves when closing out his match against Garcia.
Horschel, similarly to Perez, lost one of his group matches earlier in the week, but after getting a fairly easy ride from a lacklustre Collin Morikawa in his match on Friday, he got let off the hook by Max Homa a couple of times in a group play-off before clinching it to make it through to the weekend.
Looking at his matches on Saturday and Horschel again, to my eye, led a fairly charmed life. Firstly, his last-16 opponent Kevin Streelman didn’t make a single birdie or better until he eagled the 13th and then in a tight match against Tommy Fleetwood, which went to extra holes, Fleetwood gifted him the game by hitting his tee shot out of bounds on the first.
Key in this encounter, though, was Horschel’s propensity to get jittery at big moments, which reared its head again.
This was particularly the case on the 13th when he missed a short putt to hand Fleetwood a half after the Englishman hit his tee shot into the water, and someone more ruthless than Fleetwood would have seen the Florida Gator off before he had a chance to level things up on 17.
In simple terms, Perez has played the better of the two this week, looking more assured under pressure, and with the two sitting side by side in the world rankings and Horschel having no past pedigree in this event, the Frenchman in my eyes should be favourite.
Scottie Scheffler v Matt Kuchar (1520 BST)
The second semi sees Scottie Scheffler teeing it up against a former champion of the event, Matt Kuchar.
Scheffler, who attended college in Austin and knows this course well, snuck through his group, seeing off Xander Schauffele in a play-off after winning one and halving two of his matches, but Saturday was a different story as he swatted away Ian Poulter 6&5 and then saw off tournament favourite Jon Rahm 3&1 in the quarter-finals.
On this basis, and with the local support behind him, it is easy to see why the layers have now got him down as favourite to take home the trophy. However, as in the first semi-final, I am going to go against the grain and side with his opponent Kuchar.
'Kooch' arrived woefully out of form but after some good work at the beginning of the week with his coach something has clicked and, enjoying a format in which he has a proven pedigree, has bounced back to form.
Kuchar came out of what can only be described as the ‘group of death’, posting three wins out of three against Justin Thomas, Louis Ooustuizen and Kevin Kisner before seeing off a resurgent Jordan Spieth and an inspired Brian Harman on Saturday.
A four-time semi-finalist here now, of the four players left standing Kuchar is the one who has all the experience in this event and, crucially, will know how to pace himself as we head into Sunday.
What we also know about him, as Harman found out to his cost down the stretch on Saturday, is that when in this mood he will give nothing away. He will find his fairways, find his greens, and with the putter working as well as anyone's in the field this week, he will hole his share and then some.
If Scheffler is to beat him and continue on his quest to be the first player since Kevin Sutherland in 2002 to make the Matchplay their first PGA Tour title, he will in my mind have to produce some explosive scoring, something which of course we know he is capable. However, my suspicion is that he will struggle to follow up Saturday’s heroics.
In addition, as we have seen a lot over the years, the closer you get to the end of this event the more matches become attritional, with the players making more mistakes as they become fatigued, and if this type of match develops it would suit Kuchar down to the ground.
It’s Kuchar for me then with the 11/10 on offer making plenty of appeal, and with Perez (evens with Sky Bet) being a strong fancy as well I will put the pair in a double, which comes out at just over 3/1.
Who takes home the trophy?
If we do get the final I predict I'd stick with experience and side with Kuchar.
For Perez, to make the final on his debut in this event would be a fantastic achievement but, to reiterate, it's highly likely Kuchar’s previous history of pacing himself to win this event will be of huge value and having dispatched everyone he has come up against in the week it would be hard to see him coming undone at the final hurdle against a player in unchartered territory.
Over recent years this event has always ended in the hands of a player who has previous Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup experience, and I'm going to side with that run continuing.
Therefore, as well as taking the double on the two semi-finals, I'm backing Kuchar to lift the trophy outright at the general 7/2.
Posted at 1010 BST on 28/03/21
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