WGC-HSBC Champions preview and betting tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

4pts win Dustin Johnson at 8/1

1pt e.w. Cameron Smith at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Branden Grace at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Those who are tired already of world number one talk need to get used to it, because it's here to stay. Not so long ago, we knew who was number one and on the odd occasion injury cost Tiger Woods his place atop the rankings, it tended to be brief. Take your turn but the king will be back.

Now, the coveted position is changing hands frequently and the strength at the top of the sport is such that anyone slipping below their peak - see Rory McIlroy, more so Jordan Spieth - runs the risk of dropping outside the top five, or even top 10 as the latter did on Monday.

Brooks Koepka is the latest to pick up the baton and boy does he deserve it. Koepka's clinical major victories arguably ought to have seen him take over some time ago but his patience was rewarded with a dominant display in last week's CJ Cup and, at 28, there's little he has not already completed in the game.

One item to check off the list is a World Golf Championship and if he doesn't win this week's WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan, there's a strong chance that he'll cede top spot immediately to either Justin Rose or Dustin Johnson.

A year ago, this trio played out the finish of a gob-smacking event, one in which Johnson surrendered a six-shot lead through 54 holes with a closing 77. Koepka should've been in position to capitalise but he too suffered late in the day as a charging Rose went from eight back at the start of the final round to what in the end was a two-stroke victory.

As if we needed reminding, the outcome and the circumstances which helped create it had no lasting effect on Koepka, nor did they on Johnson. Indeed the former went ahead and won the Dunlop Phoenix a few weeks later while Johnson was next seen winning in Hawaii by a whopping eight shots. The idea of scar tissue building up in the minds of golf's more straightforward thinkers has long been exposed as ridiculous and if 2017 does have an impact on either player this week, it will likely be positive.

Indeed, it's Johnson who looks the man to beat in preference to his number one rivals and McIlroy, whose record here shows six finishes between fourth and 11th to advertise the fact that the course quite clearly suits his game.

That record is hard to ignore, but it also bears resemblance to his form in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year and McIlroy tends to arrive at both events having been out of action for at least a few weeks. I wonder whether he'd be wise to tune-up in Malaysia or Korea, even in Europe, if he wants to convert here at last.

Johnson, like McIlroy, has been off since the Ryder Cup, but he's long been capable of winning off any kind of absence. That's demonstrated by the aforementioned Tournament of Champions success, his second in that year-opening event, as well as performances such as his second place in the Wells Fargo after an injury absence in 2017, and victory on just his second start back from the supposed jet ski mishap of 2012.

In fact when he won here in 2013, he'd played just once since the TOUR Championship before another short break and he's just not a player I worry about when it comes to supposed rust, whereas increasingly I do think McIlroy loses a shot or two if he's not got competitive rounds under his belt.

Johnson also arrives highly motivated. Yes, Koepka is his friend and he'll presumably be pleased for him, but we've seen Justin Thomas use Jordan Spieth's Open victory as a springboard to success in the very next major and the falling out between the so-called 'Bash Brothers' at the Ryder Cup might just add a little more intensity to Johnson's focus.

Sky Bet specials

Any of this week's tips (including Sanderson Farms) to win - 100/30

Any WGC-HSBC Champions selection to win - 5/1

In terms of the course, finishing positions of first, fifth, 35th and second, plus a scoring average of 68.69, show that it's absolutely ideal and so it should be, as a long, modern par 72 which offers risk-reward par-fives as well as a short par-four he can reach off the tee; one which demands driver after driver and favours those who keep finding greens.

Johnson ranked 13th in greens hit on the PGA Tour last season, placing him inside the top-10 among this field, and having led after five of his 16 rounds here this looks the perfect course for him to remind us all that while Koepka is the man of the moment, he's still as reliable as anyone in the sport when it comes to chalking up wins.

Beyond the front quartet there are various players who can be expected to play well but who, for one reason or another, make very limited appeal at the odds. Star Ryder Cup pair Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari would be examples along with the likeable Tony Finau and probable top-20 candidate Paul Casey.

By far the most tempting from the second wave of the market is Jon Rahm, who was creeping back into form before the Ryder Cup, ended it with a rare singles victory over Tiger Woods and has all the required attributes as he looks to take the next step forward in his career.

Rahm was down the field on his debut here in 2017, but it was his first full year as a touring professional and he was playing wherever he could, including Italy and Spain in the fortnight before. Having admitted then that he didn't know how much he had left in the tank, it's significant that he took a break following China before returning to win the DP World Tour Championship.

A lack of experience in the Far East is the key issue, although it didn't stop him winning on his debut in the Middle East, but on balance he can be passed over in a tournament where the market leaders do look exceptionally strong.

Instead I'm keen to give Cameron Smith another chance after he tied for seventh last week, found out by a slow start to the tournament.

Unlike Rahm, Smith has plenty of experience in this part of the world as it was in Asia that he secured his first card, immediately catching the eye with quality performances across the continent.

It wasn't long after that he burst onto the global scene with a top-five finish in the US Open at Chambers Bay, which earned him a place in the HSBC Champions field at a time when, in truth, he was still feeling his way in the sport. As such it was no great surprise that he failed to make an impact at Sheshan, particularly as he was out of form by the time this tournament came around.

Three years on and he's officially a PGA Tour winner thanks to a team success alongside Jonas Blixt last spring, but it was this time last year that he produced his best individual golf with form figures of 5-3-4 before winning the Australian PGA Championship on home soil.

This time, he's started the new season with 22nd in the CIMB Classic and seventh last week so he's fully tuned up and close to his absolute best, as evidenced by some quality ball-striking in Korea in particular.

Now almost twice the price on account of the increased field strength and his low-key course debut, he's worth another chance having bagged a couple of high-class, top-three finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and generally played well on a consistent basis since the season's final major.

It's a little surprising to see Ian Poulter quoted at 66/1 in a place as he likes it in China, thrives towards the end of the year and played well enough last week to suggest he could be ready for another strong end-of-season run.

However, Sheshan isn't necessarily perfect for his game despite pushing Johnson all the way here five years ago and while the standout price available is a good one, the majority of firms have adopted a far more cautious approach.

Julian Suri, Hao-tong Li and Lucas Bjerregaard are three in-form European Tour candidates who have form in the Far East, but this is another level altogether and while there are places to play for, the winner should really be from the very upper echelons of the sport.

That's where Thorbjorn Olesen should feel he belongs now and the Dane is worth forgiving a disappointing performance in the British Masters at Walton Heath.

Cold, windy conditions made life tough for everyone there and Olesen, teeing off in a high-profile, Ryder Cup three-ball midway through the first afternoon, was always on the back foot.

While he has of course won in Scotland and grew up learning the game in the chill breeze of Denmark, Olesen should be far better suited to this modern test and his form at the course - eighth, 19th and 31st - reads well enough to make him a bet.

Olesen ranked eighth for greens hit on his debut and 20th last time so he's setting up chances at Sheshan and if his often deadly putter does come to the party, he's more than capable of producing the low numbers required - indeed he briefly had eyes on a 59 here in 2015 before settling for an opening 64.

Since then he's clearly become a better player, highlighted by a Rolex Series victory over home favourite Francesco Molinari in Italy, a top-five finish in his latest World Golf Championship start, and a fabulous singles demolition of Jordan Spieth on what was his Ryder Cup debut.

At 45th in the world rankings, a big week here could represent another key step along the road to world-class status and having told reporters that the course suits his eye in the past, there's every hope he can challenge some of those he rubbed shoulders with in Paris.

Branden Grace certainly has no issues going up against the very best in the world and while 2018 has been a disappointing year, there's time yet to salvage it.

When Grace won the Nedbank Challenge at Sun City late in 2017 it looked like he'd laid the foundations for a huge season but it hasn't transpired, largely due to some issues with the putter but no doubt also a product of welcome upheaval in his private life.

However, the new PGA Tour season often helps players wipe the slate clean and the quality of his long-game across the first eight rounds of it, enough to lead the formative greens-in-regulation charts, promises plenty.

Grace was third in the CIMB Classic for greens hit and sixth last week and while the specific rankings are a happy coincidence, the fact that he ranked third and sixth in the same category prior to winning the Nedbank last year is not insignificant - it tells you that he can capitalise on this long-game confidence he's been building.

Closing 69-68 last week means he arrives at Sheshan with some momentum and Grace is more than capable here, having shot 63 in the opening round back in 2015, climbed from 72nd to 39th on his debut and 67th to 15th last year.

If he can marry that fast start from three years ago with the way he's been finishing tournaments he has a contending performance in him at a three-figure price, generous when you consider he's gone off at a third of the odds for majors in the not-too-distant past.

Grace's bare form figures suggest he's all at sea right now but when a long-game clicks, results often follow very soon after and with some ideal events on the schedule over the next month or so, don't be surprised if the prolific South African pops up at a price.

It could well be here and the former China Open champion is worth a small bet.

Others on the shortlist include Adam Scott, who burst through the pack on Sunday in Korea, while reigning China Open champion Alex Bjork is probably being underestimated at 250/1 in a place after chasing home 80/1 shot Eddie Pepperell last time.

Thomas Pieters' power is a wonderful asset here and he too is respected along with Ryan Fox, while there have been glimpses of improvement from Patton Kizzire lately, though he'd have been of much greater interest over on the PGA Tour this week.

As it is, Johnson should go very close and looks the man to beat with Smith, Olesen and Grace put forward as value each-way alternatives.

Posted at 2045 BST on 22/10/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet - paying six places each-way
• Sanderson Farms Championship tips