Recommended bets: US Open R4
0.5pts e.w. Russell Henley to win the US Open at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3) - proven winner if the wind gets up as forecast and could be the one to emerge from the pursuers
There are no major champions in the last eight groups for the final round at Erin Hills so it might be a case of ‘after you Alphonse’ as the nerves start to shred down the closing stretch.
A breezier forecast that could make conditions the trickiest they have been all week won’t help the protagonists but on the flip side, it will more than likely rule out a Justin Thomas-style swoop from off the pace.
So the title could come down to those in and around the lead currently and whether or not you think this has been too easy an examination for a US Open, it should make for compelling viewing.
I rather snootily dismissed the chances of Russell Henley in round one but the Shell Houston Open winner is right in the argument on eight under par and four shots back of Brian Harman’s overnight lead.
He has improved steadily over the week and his 67 on Saturday contained no bogeys - in fact he has had only had one such blip over the past 36 holes.
He has managed to keep the big numbers off his scorecard too and it was little surprise to hear him say in his post-round interview on Saturday “I am playing really well”.
Henley is a proven performer if the wind does become a factor as victories at the Honda Classic in Florida and Sony Open in Hawaii suggest and an odds-against quote to beat the more erratic Patrick Reed (68-75-65) over 18 holes is seriously tempting.
However, I am going to shoot for the stars a bit more and take some 40/1 each-way on the Georgia Bulldog making up the arrears and claiming a first major of his career on Sunday evening.
His triumph at Houston in April with a closing 65 illustrates ideally a player who knows how to get it done on payday while the stats back this up as he sits inside the top 20 when it comes to Scoring Average this season in the final round.
His demeanour may not be quite as “ra-ra” as Reed as the latter whips the galleries into a frenzy but we can’t lose sight of the fact this is the last day of a US Open and Henley has all the right ingredients to mount a realistic push for glory.
Posted at 1155 BST on 18/06/17.
