Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Cazoo Classic
It's been a year of final-round drama on the European Tour and Jason Daniels is happy to speculate that more could yet follow in the Cazoo Classic.
Golf betting tips: Cazoo Classic final round
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Andy Sullivan at 60/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. James Morrsion at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
As great as it is to have a UK Swing, one week tends to blend into the next and the leaderboard in the Cazoo Classic has done little to alter that view.
Jordan Smith led into Sunday at Galgorm Castle before going backwards from eighth place last week at Fairmont, while Callum Hill, currently tied with the Englishman for second place, led that event at this stage before dropping to fourth. Look a tad further down and plenty of recent form stands in the top-20 or so.
Looking further, the likes of Jamie Donaldson, David Drysdale, Richie Ramsay and Andy Sullivan all have long-standing form at linksy-type UK courses and I can't see where the argument lies for an outlier to grab this week's trophy, whatever they decide to call it. If it is not the leader Rasmus Hojgaard, already a winner in the UK, then it will likely be someone who has been hinting at this lately.
It's worth starting with Smith, who played beautifully for two and a half rounds, then made a complete mess of his chip at the 10th hole before compounding that error by messing up the 11th, being fortunate in the end to make bogey. Sadly it looked as if he just lost control of his irons soon after with a three-over back-nine and having done a similar thing when leading in Ireland he simply can't be trusted to get over the line at the moment.
Hojgaard has twice Smith's haul despite being on the European Tour for little more than a season, and his third-round 62 to turn a six-shot deficit into a three-shot lead was terrific viewing.
The 20-year-old, who came to prominence during the enforced UK swing in the summer of 2020, is clearly relishing the return to these islands and is near certain to add a single figure of some description to a run of English form that read 1-3-6-2 through July and August of last year.
While there are surely plenty more trophies coming his way, it is worth noting he was beaten into sixth from the front at a windy Oman, an effort that split his two victories in Mauritius and at The Belfry when he came from fourth place twice to win in play-offs. There is no particular concern about his ability from the front but he has to go and do it and at 8/11, with a propensity for the putter to go missing, he looks short enough.
Ignoring the Open Championship, the last four standard European Tour events have seen a couple of off-the-pace winners, while in-between both Justin Harding and James Morrison have closed from behind to be beaten in a play-off and by a single shot respectively. With the wind due to get up on Sunday afternoon it has to be worth having a go at a couple of the longer prices from a few off the lead, especially as those closest to Hojgaard have to overcome some final-round disappointments of late.
It's worth noting ANDY SULLIVAN's improving tee-to-green figures this week and while six off the lead, he's only three adrift of second place and looks capable of ending the tournament on a high.
Losing strokes to the field on Thursday, he has since found over four shots a round to rank fourth for his second round and second for today's third. Known for enjoying 'typical links' and windy conditions, he can be very in-and-out but won at Hanbury Manor by a distance last year and was 12th at Mount Juliet just a few weeks ago, both Nicklaus layouts of sorts (the former is designed by Jack's son).
He's six shots off the pace but, as mentioned, it's been done recently and very few of those above him looked convincing through Saturday's final nine. One of his mid-60s rounds may well find a place by close of play and if Hojgaard were to shoot something over-par, the list of potential winners here does extend down to Sullivan and perhaps even beyond.
Pre-event favourite BERND WIESBERGER has suffered a frustrating week, making a series of long putts on the first nine holes to build an ideal platform only to then make next to nothing from close range. Even in the third round, the 16 holes of really good work were undermined by back-to-back bogeys out of the gate which still mean he has a mountain to climb.
The world number 66 doesn't seem as though he feels much pressure and surely he will gain reward soon for ranking in the top half-dozen for greens-in-regulation, tee-to-green and approach play thus far this week. Like Sullivan, it will take a mid-to-low-60s round to contend but he did that in Sullivan's English Championship win (65 to go from 11th to fifth) and certainly looks in the type of form for that to happen again from outside the main coverage.
Along with the aforementioned Sullivan, Dale Whitnell, Richard Bland and Richie Ramsay, in-form JAMES MORRISON represents that recent Mount Juliet leaderboard and looks to be overpriced after coming home in 30 to join Sullivan and Wiesberger in a tie for 11th.
We have seen with Olympic silver-medalist Rory Sabbatini this week that sudden form can be seen as something of a fluke by the layers, and the 36-year-old Englishman is another looking to prove that to be wrong on this occasion.
His final-round 63 at Fairmont last week immediately catches the eye, coming from four shots behind and forcing winner Grant Forrest to pull out all the stops for a narrow win. Morrison's form at Celtic Manor (T5 last year) and in Sweden (T3) ties in nicely with this and as one of the strongest putters in this field, lighting up the course from off the pace on Sunday is well within his compass.
Posted at 1805 BST on 14/08/21
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