Zooming in on player records at specific courses could help unlock three-ball value at the Farmers Insurance Open, according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open three-balls
1pt SW Kim, Vegas and Woodland to win their three-balls at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt Alex Smalley to win his three-ball at 7/4 (General)
0.5pt four-fold Kim, Vegas, Woodland and Smalley at 40/1 (bet365)
It's been a rough start to the year, already with two players missing the places by a shot and a 250/1 chance falling from third with 10 holes to play to somewhere not especially close to the required top eight. The reason for this admission is hand on heart I'd probably rather not be wading fully into the world of three-balls just yet.
The reason for doing so is a good one, however. The Farmers Insurance Open is played across two courses which play very differently despite their close proximity and there's simply no way anyone pricing these matches up has gone to the trouble of pulling apart individual player records. What we're looking for, then, are groups where one player's record on the specific course they're playing is significantly superior.
All of the best options come at the tougher South Course, where SI WOO KIM can beat Eric Cole and Max McGreevy.
Cole was the 250/1 shot who capitulated because of the worst driving in the AmEx field on Sunday and that club has got him into big trouble around here in the past. Short and crooked isn't a good combo anywhere but at the PGA Tour's longest course, it's potentially catastrophic. That'll be why he ranks 119th of the 122 players in this field who've played it before.
Kim on the other hand has an excellent record around the South, shooting par or better a dozen times, and he's one of the form players in world golf with nine top-25s in a row coming here. He stayed active late into December and has returned to contend for the AmEx, where he at least recovered well from his own capitulation, which came with better excuses than Cole's.
McGreevy, an accurate driver like Kim, is playing well and rates the danger. His game is very similar to that of the Korean but simply not as good, and his record at the South is worse than it first appears. Officially, he's played one round here, shooting about the field average, but last year he was six-over with one hole to play before withdrawing.
Next, JHONATTAN VEGAS is among the very best South Course players in the field and while that fact relies on his early-career record in this event, he's remained competitive more recently. Last year he produced two good rounds and his quality long-game is an obvious reason why he'd like it here.
After a modest return in the AmEx last week he couldn't be a confident selection, but he's in with one of the worst players of the South in the field in Cam Davis. The Aussie has 18 rounds to his name here but ranks 117th of the 112 course-experienced golfers in the field.
That phrase 'course-experienced' refers to PGA Tour events but William Mouw has played a lot of golf here in fairness. He looks a much bigger threat than a badly out of sorts Davis, but didn't do much on his Farmers debut. In a match, I give the edge to the Venezuelan.
Finally, GARY WOODLAND has some of the very best ball-striking numbers in the field around the South. We all know his short-game has cost him plenty of chances down the years, including here, and it remains a wonderfully 'golf' thing that the shot he'll be most remembered for was a ballsy pitch across the green when winning the US Open at Pebble Beach.
Anyway, Woodland absolutely loves the South Course whereas one member of his group, Chandler Phillips, must hate it. The Texan has played six rounds, all of them over-par, and has on three occasions been battling to break 80. He was last of 70 last year (Cole 68th, Mouw 66th), a detached last at that, and even some more encouraging recent form isn't enough to expect significant improvement.
Emiliano Grillo might be the bigger problem. His record here is so-so, though, and having shot big numbers in both starts so far this year he's probably not relishing his return to the Farmers, where he was 14-over when withdrawing last year. Like McGreevy, that was because they hadn't finished their rounds in time and were certain to miss the cut.
I'm inclined to just have a small go at the treble, which pays 14/1 with bet365, and we do have a safety net of sorts in three-balls, where dead-heats are possible. Others may prefer a trixie, which is three doubles and a treble and would return a profit if any two selections won.
Over at the North Course, the standout is Charley Hoffman against Adam Svensson and Kevin Roy, but despite his local ties I can't bring myself to side with the veteran. He's putted abysmally in both starts back from six months off and while we at least won't have to sit and suffer without shot tracking at this course, he'll struggle to shoot a competitive score unless something changes.
Pierceson Coody and Kris Ventura have struggled here in limited tries which brings 9/4 David Ford into the equation, but he's a debutant for whom I wouldn't expect this to be ideal, so I'm going to stick with a small single on ALEX SMALLEY.
He's not actually the best North Course player in his group according to averages, but he does have the low round by some distance having shot 62 on debut. He returns in decent form, too, and was brilliant off the tee last week, before which he'd started the season with an opening 64 in the Sony Open.
Keith Mitchell has the reputation of a first-round specialist but for a player of his ability, failing to break 71 in six tries at the North Course is a big red flag. He ranked second only to Smalley in strokes-gained off-the-tee last week but has never been a factor in the Farmers before and I've not seen enough to believe that is about to change.
It's actually Vince Whaley who boasts the best scoring average of the trio but he's a modest ball-striker who relies heavily on his putter, which was at times as bad as his long-game last week. He's the least capable player of the three and 7/4 Smalley looks fair. We'd better have a small go on the four-fold at 40/1 but it'll be a profitable day if only Smalley obliges.
Posted at 13:00 GMT on 28/01/26
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