Thomas Bjorn's wild card options: Ben Coley looks at Ryder Cup picks

Bjorn's compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen took the final qualifying spot despite a relatively low-key performance on home soil in the Made In Denmark, and that leaves the captain with four players to select ahead of his scheduled announcement on Wednesday.

Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson were long odds-on to make the side when qualification began but have seen their prospects damaged by a loss of form and fitness struggles respectively, while Paul Casey's expected return after a decade away has been thrown into doubt by a disappointing run of results.

Our man will be at the Ryder Cup in Paris to cover the biennial event at the end of the month and here's his take on Bjorn's options, which have been priced up here by Sky Bet.

Ian Poulter

Let's start with the certainty - Ian Poulter. Sky Bet chalked him up at 1/6 a week ago, probably the greatest 1/6 shot of all time. Football teams regularly start 1/6 despite having to do something - score more goals than they concede - to justify those odds. Poulter need only stay alive until Wednesday to earn his return to the European side.

It's not just that his Ryder Cup record, despite a relatively low-key performance at Gleneagles four years ago, is excellent; it's not just that he lives for the competition, and that his golf at Medinah alongside Rory McIlroy on Saturday afternoon was probably the best this competition has ever witnessed.

It's that Poulter has played beautifully for most of the year - in fact, since second place in the PLAYERS Championship last spring; that he's got an ideal game for Le Golf National; that he is precisely the sort of experienced talisman this inexperienced side will need to recapture the trophy. Oh how he was missed two years ago.

Poulter's final start before Wednesday's announcement was low-key, but it matters not. From the moment he rolled in that birdie putt on the 72nd hole of the Houston Open to force a play-off he would go on to win, his place in this side has been virtually assured and deservedly so.

Sergio Garcia

How has it come to this? Since the last Ryder Cup, one he ended with a dazzling singles showdown against Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia has at last become a major champion and won in Singapore, Spain and Dubai, too. He ought to have been one of the first names on the list.

Yet since an embarrassing Masters defence in April, one which included taking 13 shots at the par-five 15th, fully ten more than he had when victorious a year earlier, Garcia has been a pale shadow of his former self. There have been glimpses, notably eighth place on a scouting mission to Le Golf National, but there have also been missed cuts - seven in 10 from Augusta to Bellerive to be precise, all four majors included.

It's fair to describe this as one of the most difficult years of Garcia's life on the course. Off it, he's become a proud father having married last year and has settled down into his family lifestyle in Texas. Clearly, that's been at a cost, but nobody can say the compromise hasn't been worthwhile. In fact I'm sure it has.

Bjorn, though, does not strike as a sentimental character, and after Garcia went backwards after a good start to the Wyndham and then elected to return to Spain to play a charity poker tournament rather than take advantage of the opportunity to impress in Denmark, surely his patience wears thin.

If anything can bring Garcia back to life, though, it's the Ryder Cup. The opportunity to pair with Jon Rahm, perhaps, with a renewal of his partnership with Rafa Cabrera Bello unlikely with there being space for only one of them on the team, would be fascinating to watch and has the potential to make life extremely difficult for any United States pairing.

Opinion is split. Some say Garcia hasn't done enough and that form is everything; others that Europe need experience, that his performance in Paris earlier this year tips the scales in his favour. Only Bjorn will know which is true.

Henrik Stenson

After Hazeltine, where he signed off with a singles victory over Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson was inside the world's top-five. Two years on, a combination of emerging talent like Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas and a relative dip in form means he's hovering around 20th; still above some of the European qualifiers, but below where he expects to be.

For Stenson, though, the nuts and bolts matter not. There's no need to try to weigh a personal-best Masters performance against a winless 12 months, or to question whether two points from five matches last time was good enough. All that matters is that he's healthy, and if he's healthy, he plays.

Unlike Garcia, who has been a long way from his best for quite some time, we don't have to forgive much when it comes to Stenson's form and that's why he simply can't be left out unless his troublesome elbow injury remains a problem, one which would be exposed by as many as 36 holes in a day or 90 in three.

On that, Stenson said prior to 20th place in the Wyndham that he felt much better, that he was able to practice but just couldn't quite go at it in the gym as he'd like. Viewed through those encouraging words, his withdrawal from The Northern Trust can be taken as an indication that Bjorn has told him he's done enough and that resting the elbow to ensure he's absolutely ready for Paris would be preferred.

Of course, it's possible that he didn't play that lucrative event because the elbow is hurting, but Stenson comfortably made the weekend on his return in Boston and that will surely be enough to confirm his place. We'll find out for sure on Wednesday but it would be a major surprise were he not there alongside Poulter.

Paul Casey

Ten years on from his last appearance, Paul Casey seemed certain to make his Ryder Cup return in Paris after clear-the-air talks with Keith Pelley saw him regain his European Tour membership, a requirement for would be European Ryder Cup players.

Casey then made the effort to play in the EurAsia Cup at the start of the year and relished imparting his match play wisdom on others so when he then won for the first time in nine years on the PGA Tour, holding off none other than Tiger Woods along with subsequent Masters champion Patrick Reed, the job was virtually done.

Since then, however, he's dropped out of the automatic qualification spots despite a pair of major top-20s, second place in the Travelers and fifth in the Wells Fargo, and as his worst golf has come recently - a missed cut at the PGA followed by 60th at The Northern Trust - there's some speculation that he could miss out.

Casey is undeniably excellent at head-to-head golf, but it's open to debate whether he's a team player and his Ryder Cup record isn't sparkling. He was used just twice as a rookie in 2004, winning a pairs point before losing to Tiger Woods in singles. On his second appearance he was unbeaten with a 2-0-2 record, but he failed to win a match - not that he was alone in that - as Europe lost at Valhalla in 2008.

There are similarly mixed messages from his course form, a debut 10th some 14 years ago followed by two rounds of 80 on his only subsequent visit, and contradiction is a common theme with Casey.

On the one hand we're talking about a world-class player, whose ball-striking is a huge asset, who has won a strong event this year and whose match play record - at least as an individual - is very strong.

On the other, we're talking about a player known to be single-minded, far from universally popular among his peers - including the European management group - and who effectively took a self-imposed hiatus from the competition because he was angry not to be selected in 2010. There is certainly a case against.

All that said, expect Casey to be named on Wednesday. He teamed up well with two players who will make their debuts, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, and it's easy to see him forming a strangely successful partnership with the latter in particular.

Thomas Pieters

As with Stenson and Garcia, it would've been hard to imagine Europe lining up without Thomas Pieters in Paris when the last Ryder Cup drew to a close. After all, he'd just played all five matches having earned a wild card call with victory in Denmark and he'd won four of them, hamstrung only by an errant and apologetic Lee Westwood in the very first session.

After that disastrous opening session in Minnesota, Darren Clarke was forced into a change of plan and, almost at random, decided to pair Pieters with Rory McIlroy. It worked. They won all three matches, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler among their victims, prompting McIlroy to declare that he'd like to reserve Pieters as his partner for the next decade or more.

It seemed at the time that a partnership for the ages had been struck, but Pieters, who went on to win his singles match convincingly, hasn't kept up his end of the bargain. There have been flashes - two WGC top-fives, two major top-sixes - but the consistency required to qualify has been absent along with any kind of silverware.

For much of the year, then, it has been clear that Pieters would again require late fireworks to make the side. In 2016, that meant an opening 62 alongside captain Clarke in Denmark, an event he went on to win, and two years later it meant contending for the PGA Championship until a costly drive at the 71st hole.

From there, he failed to build on good starts in the Czech Republic and in Denmark, two opportunities missed, but it's possible the Belgian did enough at Bellerive to earn the benefit of the doubt. Whatever the case it's Pieters, along with perhaps Garcia, who looks to have given Bjorn the biggest headache and not by playing his best, rather by threatening to without completing the job.

Rafa Cabrera Bello

While Pieters was the star of 2016 for a beaten European side, Rafa Cabrera Bello, in his typically understated way, wasn't far behind. He and Sergio Garcia went unbeaten together, first winning a debut fourball sharing the spoils with Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed in foursomes courtesy of a comeback so late in the day that Clarke had already decided not to send Cabrera Bello out in the afternoon.

His subsequent victory in Scotland, a Rolex Series event, came just before qualifying began and a rare poor run of golf from the end of the US Open to the start of the Bridgestone Invitational came at a similarly bad time. It means that rather than sneak into seventh or eighth as many had expected, he's relying on a call-up.

In his favour is that performance at Hazeltine, Cabrera Bello having gone unbeaten after beating Jimmy Walker in singles. Also of note is a strong record at this course recently - fifth and fourth before missing the cut this summer - and some solid match play exploits elsewhere, including third place in the WGC two years ago.

Whether it's as simple as there being room for only one more Spaniard in the side isn't clear, but with Poulter and Stenson seemingly sure of their places, Casey perhaps likewise, Cabrera Bello will need to kick on at the Dell Technologies Championship where he opened 68-68 to sit four back at halfway.

That event finishes on Monday and, after a final-round 64 for 10th in the PGA and 11th a week after, more fireworks could yet be enough. Nothing else will do.

Russell Knox

It seems unlikely that Russell Knox will make the side, despite holing back-to-back 40-foot putts to win the Irish Open this summer, a victory which followed on from second at Le Golf National to propel him into the picture.

Since then, however, he was without a single top-30 finish before the Dell Tech Championship and for a player who wasn't given the benefit of the doubt in 2016, when he'd won twice and held his form well in the run-up to judgement day, it's surely not been good enough.

Knox is also unfortunate in some respects that he's not particularly close with any of the qualifiers having long since made his home in Florida and he seems destined to sit on the fringes of the European side in perpetuity.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Underused in 2016, losing his one and only pairs game on Saturday morning and then sent out last in singles, for a game which was always likely to be of limited consequence given that Europe trailed heavily entering Sunday.

In fairness, Hazeltine just wasn't set-up for this fairway-finder and Le Golf National is a better fit, despite a fairly modest record there so far. But while Ryder Cups are absolutely part of his future along with contending for majors and becoming one of the best players in Europe if not the world, in the here and now not even a weekend charge in Denmark is likely to be enough.

Fitzpatrick had managed just two top-10 finishes all year prior to Denmark and it would have been harsh on Thorbjorn Olesen had the Sheffield man usurped him. In failing to do so, his prospects took a surely fatal hit.

Eddie Pepperell

A late contender following a now famous Sunday charge at the Open, which he put down to having a hangover. Since then he's added another top-10 in the Czech Republic to go with second place in Scotland prior to Carnoustie so it has been a thoroughly productive year for a player who won his first European Tour title in Qatar in the spring.

Pepperell, like Fitzpatrick, could have qualified automatically with a win in Denmark but acknowledged there that nothing else would do. It would be a major surprise to him and the rest of us were he to have done enough with that fortnight in Scotland to force Bjorn into a complete change of plan.

Matt Wallace

So Denmark had a twist for us after all, and it came in the shape of Matt Wallace’s third win of the year and fourth in 18 months.

To birdie five of the last six holes, then both in the play-off, tells you all you need to know about Wallace, who was prolific on the Alps Tour and has brought that ruthless streak with him to the top table. Given the nature of Sunday’s success, he is entitled to feel like he is worthy of selection.

Still, do not underestimate the leap in grade which would again be required to compete with the world’s best in Paris. Wallace is still working his way towards elite status and while it seems he will get there, he has next to no experience of competing with the world’s very best.

Perhaps that won’t matter. Perhaps the best way for Europe to win back the Ryder Cup is to bring as much new blood into the side as possible, to remove virtually all trace of Hazeltine scars. Maybe Bjorn’s headache - Pieters or Garcia or Cabrera Bello or Casey - will be soothed by having had someone take the decision out of his hands.

More likely, in my mind, is that there still isn’t room for an eleventh hour change of plan. Not on a team packed with rookies, facing arguably the strongest US side in history.

Wallace will play Ryder Cup golf one day, but I suspect not this year. Yet if I am wrong and Bjorn does select him, boy will he have earned it. And if he can produce golf like that under the highest pressure this sport has to offer, he will be a wonderful addition to the side, too.

My verdict

Poulter and Stenson will return to the side to add some needed experience and it appears like that, despite having failed to capitalise on a strong position and qualify automatically, Casey will join them.

That leaves Garcia, Pieters and Cabrera Bello as the three likely options, all with good Ryder Cup records, and while I am increasingly of the view that Pieters would be worth the risk, I'm equally of the opinion that Bjorn will more likely side with Garcia.

It's true that the Spaniard has been out of sorts for much of the year, but it's also true that he had a chance to win the Open de France, and that he is precisely the sort of character to be lit up by a return to Ryder Cup golf.

When last in action, Garcia halved arguably the highest-quality singles match of all time with Mickelson and we should not forget that he's become a major champion since. For all the obvious form concerns, it's easy to understand why a captain would give him the benefit of the doubt with three weeks left to find his game.

Equally relevant is the fact that this team does lack Ryder Cup form. Five of the eight automatic qualifiers will be making their debuts and while there are no rookies really in the mix for wild cards, Garcia's vast experience since his 1999 debut gives him an edge which Pieters and Cabrera Bello do not have.

Reading into his absence from the Denmark field is risky, but it's possible Garcia has been told he's going to be named. Otherwise, one would've expected him to play, even if he was raising money for charity back home in Spain rather than teeing it up. One way or another, I remain of the belief that he's Bjorn's Plan A, and that Pieters' failure to win in Europe and Cabrera Bello's good but not great golf in the USA will see Garcia given the benefit of what is now considerable doubt.

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