Golf betting preview: PLAYERS Championship preview Sunday March 14
Golf betting tips: PLAYERS final round
2pts win Bryson Dechambeau at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Si Woo Kim to beat Cameron Smith in two-ball at 6/5 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
It was a scintillating ‘moving day’ at the PLAYERS Championship and with the powers that be setting up the pin positions to give an opportunity for low scoring some of the game's biggest names obliged to play themselves into contention.
The lowest round of the day and indeed the week so far came from Justin Thomas who posted a 64 to vault up the leaderboard to sit 10-under, while last week's champion at Bay Hill Bryson Dechambeau put himself right in the thick of things again by posting a 67 to sit one better on 11-under.
Similarly to last Sunday, though the man they are all looking up at is Lee Westwood who sits two clear of the field on 13-under.
The Englishman who was hugely impressive in defeat last Sunday, pushing Dechambeau all the way, has picked up exactly where he left off in Orlando, making only two bogeys to date and none since Thursday. In all honesty Saturday’s 68 was about the worst he could have shot as he was dialled in from tee to green once more with only a cool putter compared to Friday holding him back.
So with Westwood and Dechambeau filling the top two spots going in to Sunday just as they did last week - something which has not happened on tour since Vijay Singh and Adam Scott kept each other company at the 2006 Tour Championship and again at the 2007 curtain-raiser, the Sentry ToC - it is with a certain element of déjà vu I find myself previewing the ‘rematch’ between these two.
The obvious question to ask then is can Westwood turn the tables and get the better of the US Open champion this week?
I said last week that allowing for Westwood’s strong play over the past year or so his chances should not be dismissed lightly, but my feeling was that with him being winless on the PGA Tour since 2010 Dechambeau would get the better of him and this transpired to be the case. My overall feeling is that a very similar scenario could well play out this time around.
Westwood is playing like a man with no expectations and, with his partner Helen on the bag, and a mindset these days of just enjoying his golf with anything else he achieves in his illustrious career just being gravy, he is undoubtedly a very dangerous animal. However, the fact remains that a win here, a first on US soil since 2010, would arguably be the biggest of his career and my strong suspicion is while I do not expect him to implode, that when it really matters down the stretch enough putts will slip by for him to come up short again.
On that basis and with the phrase ‘if it ain't broke, don’t fix it' ringing in my head I shall for the second Sunday running nail my colours to the mast of BRYSON DECHAMBEAU.
If I am going to work on the theory that Westwood will not take home the trophy then, just as was the case last week, history in this event tells us that we really don’t need to head too many shots down the leaderboard when searching for the winner as only two champions in the past ten years, Fowler in 2015 and Clark in 2010, have come from more than two shots back on Sunday to win the title, with both starting three behind.
As we tune in to today’s action the commentators will no doubt tell us that any one of a dozen players within six shots have a chance with a low round. However, while you’ll most likely see some low scoring earlier in the day when the greens are a bit more receptive, with the Tour looking to make their flagship event a tough test on Sunday, the only two champions to break 69 here on the final day in the last ten years were again Fowler and Clark, who both shot 67.
Dechambeau has talked a lot about only having his C or B-game this week and indeed last, but after his trademark post-round lengthy range session on Friday he drove the ball a lot better on Saturday finding ten of 14 fairways, and if he can find similar on Sunday and take care of the par fives he is going to be really hard to beat. Dechambeau has won in back to back weeks before on the tour when he landed the first two Fedec Cup Play Off events in 2018 and I can see him repeating the feat here.
Moving further down the leaderboard the only other two players who sit within three shots of the lead going into the final day are Justin Thomas and Doug Ghim, who sit on 10-under and make up the penultimate group.
While Ghim has performed excellently this week and has a big future ahead of him it would be going against all recent history in this event for him to land his maiden tour title on debut here and on that basis all eyes in this duo will surely be on Thomas.
Thomas caught fire on Saturday in his 64 and if anyone can follow up a low round with another he is surely your man. Having put him up pre-tournament I would be delighted to see him do so and the 5/1 does make some appeal.
My underlying feeling, though, is that Dechambeau is in the winning zone at the moment and therefore, while Thomas or of course Rahm and Casey who sit a further shot back on 9-under, are more than capable of making a charge, last week's Bay Hill champion will prove too tough a nut to crack.
Looking at today's two-balls and the one to catch my eye is SI WOO KIM who finds himself up against Cameron Smith at 12pm local time.
Smith, who lives locally, has struggled in his career to date at TPC Sawgrass never having previously broken 70 in three previous visits and therefore yesterday’s 65 from an early tee time went somewhat against the grain for him here.
Kim, conversely, is an out-and-out Pete Dye specialist and his return to the scene of his greatest triumph to date seems to have sparked him back to life from the malaise that has affected him since his win at the Dye layout at the Amex.
Kim has made four previous visits to TPC Sawgrass and has broken 70 on six occasions showing that unlike his playing partner he knows how to get it round, here even when his game may not be in top gear, and that greater course affinity is enough for me to side with the South Korean as the outsider of two.
Posted at 0930 GMT on 14/03/21
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