The Open Championship at Royal Portrush: Specials betting preview and tips
Ben Coley is hoping Bez can deliver in the top South African market as he looks at the pick of the specials ahead of the Open Championship.
Top South African
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 14/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
Rewind two or three years, and the top South African market wasn't one to be particularly interested in. It was hard to separate Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel; each took their turn and not always when expected to, without leaving much room for anyone else.
Now, with Schwartzel sidelined through injury and Grace badly out of form, the chief threats to Oosthuizen come from elsewhere. Justin Harding was the leading South African in the Masters, Erik van Rooyen took over the baton in the PGA Championship, until finally it returned to Oosthuizen for the US Open at Pebble Beach.
Perhaps Royal Portrush will present the opportunity for Christiaan Bezuidenhout to have his turn, and at around the 12/1 mark he looks a good each-way bet to topple those mentioned.
Oosthuizen is of course the man to beat, but his Open record away from St Andrews is a concern and reports from Portrush on Monday suggested he was struggling a little, particularly around the greens.
With Van Rooyen having to pick himself off the floor following a disastrous Sunday in the final group of the Scottish Open, Grace nowhere near his best, Harding having struggled for more than a month and Dylan Frittelli expected to bounce after his John Deere win, it's Bezuidenhout who looks the most solid each-way option.
Winner of the Andalucia Masters last month, Bezuidenhout actually brings a similar profile to that of Oosthuizen when he won the Open in 2010 and while that might be beyond him, his blend of accuracy from the tee and a razor-sharp short-game can carry him a long way.
It was here at Portrush that Bezuidenhout was harshly banned for use of beta blockers as an amateur, so there'd be a sense of poetic justice were he contend - and I think he can at least threaten to do so.
Top left-hander
For all their talents, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, in particular the latter, are players everyone should be looking to take on this week - and it just so happens we can do so in the top left-hander market.
Mickelson is favourite owing to his remarkable late-in-life Open awakening. Since 2011 he's won it and twice been runner-up, with three further top-25 finishes underlining that he's really figured this style of play out.
Portrush should appeal to his creativity around the greens, too, but for all those positives there's one negative which wipes them all out: his play over the last few months.
Mickelson's form reads MC-71-MC-52-MC-MC since the Masters and it just isn't good enough. He's driving the ball very poorly, experimenting with set-up and equipment, and the putts aren't dropping, either. He's sure to struggle unless he's found something and the fact he didn't play in Scotland is another major negative.
Watson's Open record is appalling and he'll likely throw in the towel, which leaves us with three other left-handers, one of whom is a low-ranked Mexican whose only chance to come out best here is that the other three disgrace themselves.
Almost by process of elimination, then, Brian Harman looks worth backing at 4/1.
It's tempting to dutch Harman and Robert MacIntyre, the improving Scotsman who has already secured his card for 2020, but he's gone off the boil a little whereas the American is approaching it right now.
Harman's form reads 8-MC-7-26, his trademark accuracy having returned, and while no Open specialist he did play nicely on his debut in the event and has contended for a US Open, too.
He could win this market with a missed cut - all we're really looking for is a pair of solid rounds to start with and of the quintet making up this market he looks by some way the most likely to produce them, having got into the field when Charles Howell withdrew.
Top 20 finish
Were it not for an extremely low-key run of form, Zach Johnson would be the default bet here at 13/2. The 2015 winner is going for his seventh top-20 finish in eight Open appearances and knows what's required.
However, at the same price I prefer the most recent credentials of Byeong Hun An, who has top-20 finishes in three of his last four starts including 16th at Pebble Beach - his best major yet.
An played well in the Open at Hoylake in 2014, narrowly missing this target when still a Challenge Tour player, and as a winner at Wentworth the following year he has some Harry Colt form to throw into the mix.
He's 100/30 to be top Korean, second-favourite behind Sungjae Im, but I prefer this market with 21st at Royal County Down another nice pointer towards a solid week for one of the best ball-strikers in the field.
In the same market, 49-year-old Jim Furyk is also worth a bet.
Furyk has seven top-20 finishes in 17 starts since the Ryder Cup, and it's quality approach play along with his trademark accuracy off the tee which has helped conjure this revival.
Second place at Sawgrass was an excellent effort before he went on to contend at Colonial, and 28th place in the US Open at Pebble Beach is a performance he can build on now switched to what should be a more suitable venue.
Furyk's Open record is solid with seven top-20 finishes in 21 appearances and it could be significant that all of his best form has come on the west coast of England, a short ferry ride from Northern Ireland.
The key point though is that he's exuding control with his irons, which should be a key pointer this week. Furyk ranks 11th in strokes-gained approach this season and can capitalise on the opportunities he'll create.
Top Canadian
Finally, the best of the short-priced options is Adam Hadwin to be the top Canadian.
He's only got Austin Connelly and Corey Conners to beat, and while the former played superbly in this two years ago he's done nothing since to suggest anything but a missed cut awaits.
Conners won the Texas Open in fine style earlier this year and is an elite ball-striker, but his best finish since is a tie for 30th and that makes Hadwin by some distance the form pick.
Hadwin has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts and he's doing what he does: hitting quality approach shots and making putts. With last year's solid Carnoustie effort also putting him at an advantage, he looks banker material at 5/6.
Posted at 1110 BST on 16/07/19.
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