Masters 2017: Specials betting preview and tips
Sergio Garcia is one of three bets for David John this week in the specials markets at Augusta National.
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It remains one of the mysteries of the modern game that no debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but there are plenty of observers who think that statistic could at last be put to bed by Jon Rahm.
He would without doubt be the story of 2017 so far if it were not for Dustin Johnson winning everything in sight and his rapid ascent to number 12 in the world rankings means he is no bigger than 28/1 to be slipping into a certain jacket of a certain colour on Sunday evening.
It is no surprise to see him at the top of the betting to be leading player from those making a first competitive start around Augusta National but I am keen to take him on with wily veteran compatriot Sergio Garcia to be the Top Spaniard this year.
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Garcia returned to the winner’s enclosure in February with a three-stroke victory at the Dubai Desert Classic and although whether he can win a major championship is now quite a way down the list of topics for discussion, he still feels he has plenty more to offer.
“Physically I’m still doing well,” he said.
“I’ve been able to avoid injuries for pretty much my whole career, so that’s always a positive.
“I’m excited to keep improving, keep giving myself chances at winning tournaments, winning majors and then just give the best that I have got in me.”
At 37, he returns to have a crack at winning the title for 19th consecutive year and perhaps in the best mental state for some time on the back of that victory in the desert and equally important, his life away from the course is settled and contented.
Two other contenders make up the field in this market – former winner and Champions Tour member Jose Maria Olazabal and the elegant, consistent but infrequent winner Rafa Cabrera-Bello.
Olazabal does not have a huge amount to recommend him in terms of pulling off a shock judged on what he has shown in 2017 while the demands placed on the short game around here might get to Cabrera-Bello at some stage.
Garcia’s work on the greens will be under the miscroscope (193rd in Strokes Gained: Putting) but his all-round short game remains dynamite and still has the ability to post a top 10 for the first time since 2013.
Rahm’s achievements could eventually be off the charts but it is still very early days in his Masters career and I think he will have to be bang on the money to reward favourite backers against Garcia.
Referring back to the Top Debutant betting, I had my eye on England’s Tyrrell Hatton, who has brought his whole family out to Augusta and has rented a couple of properties for the week.
He seems to be relishing his new found status in the game and his stock is very much on the rise following an impressive top-five finish at Bay Hill but he has been priced up accordingly and I will leave him out on this occasion.
It is a similar scenario for Jason Day, who deserves his place at the head of the market for Top Australian and he should be raring to go on the back of good news about his mother as she recovers from surgery.
He is tempting despite the cramped odds but instead but I am going to add a couple of picks for top-20 finishes in the shape of Pat Perez and Patrick Reed.
Perez is back on an upward curve in his career after recovering from shoulder surgery and the hard work paid off last November with victory at the OHL Classic in Mexico.
That success booked a return to Augusta for the first time since 2009 and although two attempts to date have not yielded better that a T45, a resurgent Perez looks set to take full advantage of this opportunity.
“It is a hard spot to earn and I couldn’t wait to get here,” he said last week and he seems to have done plenty of homework in the build-up.
“I have played a lot here but sometimes you forget all the subtleties,” he added and part of his practice session was deliberately hitting his ball miles wide of the par five eighth green and then attempting get it up and down.
It would be a turn up for the books if Perez was good enough to beat everyone but I can see him going well on the back of some solid form in 2017 to go with his most recent victory.
Reed started the new year off in Hawaii feeling under the weather health-wise and led to him stating recently that “the last couple of months I have been going in the wrong direction”.
He has managed to make every cut though up until Houston last week without playing anywhere near his best but I am going to take a chance he puts it all together for a week that really counts.
Reed is still searching for a first top-10 finish in a major championship from 12 starts but back-to-back heroic efforts for the USA in the Ryder Cup suggests it is only a matter of time and rightly believes performing well under that sort of pressure can be replicated at an individual level.
“I just need to get out of my own way in majors,” he added and I fancy the former Augusta University All-American with five PGA Tour successes under his belt to have a really solid four days in familiar surroundings.
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Posted at 1545 BST on 04/04/17.
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