The Masters two-balls: Sunday round four preview and best golf bets
Scottie Scheffler is odds-on for the Masters after a fascinating Saturday. Ben Coley looks ahead to the final round at Augusta.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round four
2pts Fowler and Zalatoris to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Smith and Davis to win their two-balls at 2.87/1 (William Hill)
1pt four-fold Fowler, Zalatoris, Smith and Davis at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
What a Saturday that was at the Masters. If this tournament has been short of something in recent years, round three had everything. Augusta National was understated brutality, just two players breaking 70 despite conditions on the surface seeming easier than they had been. It was a test of survival, and survive is exactly what Scottie Scheffler did.
Most players would have had their tournaments entirely derailed by a double-bogey at the 10th followed by a bogey at the 11th and a missed green at the 12th. Scheffler regathered himself, saved a shot, then got back all three of those he'd dropped, first with an eagle at the 13th and then a birdie at the 15th. When he bogeyed the 17th, he simply hit his best shot of the day and birdied the last.
As a neutral observer, there are two ways I wouldn't mind watching the world number one win: second is by some sort of record margin, a display of total domination. But first, by a distance, is when they've had to face up to destruction and refuse to let it win. That's what Scheffler did on Saturday and it was awesome. Now, he's a shade of odds-on to win the Masters for a second time.
There will be no regret on these pages if he does it, but there will be if Collin Morikawa collects the third leg of a career grand slam. Morikawa just hasn't given us anything to work with lately, his approach play appalling and his driving weak. But, just as he did when capturing the PGA Championship and the Open, he has sprung to life when it really matters. And, for the fourth year running, he's putting these greens well.
Morikawa, 50/1 and bigger pre-tournament, is now a 7/2 chance, and you can make a case for him being underestimated. He was one back when going on to win the Open three years ago, his price that day much shorter, the competition of course weaker. Certainly, Scheffler backers wouldn't mind swapping out the man in second for almost any other player in the field given the scenario.
Max Homa and Ludvig Aberg round out the top four and while I don't for a second believe either can tee off without pressure – this is the final round of the Masters – they might be able to kid themselves into thinking nobody expects them to win, given the quality ahead of them and historical precedents which would've ruled both out of many people's pre-tournament calculations.
I was really quite impressed with Homa on Saturday, when he settled into it nicely after a nervous beginning. Had he continued to putt well he'd have made that birdie he's still waiting for, his last coming at the fourth hole of round two, but the par save at 18 keeps him close enough. Scheffler's putter remains his key weakness: Homa is the player among the top four who is most likely to start rolling them in from everywhere.
With Xander Schauffele, Cam Young, Tommy Fleetwood and Cam Smith among the dozen players under-par entering the final round, we are in for an absolute cracker – unless, that is, Scheffler goes out and birdies the first three holes. I would put nothing past him. If someone else does win the Masters, they'll know they got the better of the dominant player in the sport to do so.
Two-ball selections
RICKIE FOWLER had plenty of questions to answer heading into the Masters, but his love for the course wouldn't have been one of them and he can sign off on a high.
My eye is drawn to the fact that Fowler's approach play has improved round-by-round, culminating in an excellent 71 which saw him rank 10th for the round, along with first around the greens. Those have long been key to success at Augusta.
The wheels rather came off Ryan Fox's Masters bid which had been very much on when he began round three with a hat-trick of birdies. Over the final 12 holes he was eight-over and while unfortunate to clatter into the flag at 17, the mistakes that followed were his.
These two are heading in opposite directions and I'd be hopeful that continues, with Fowler a fair bet at a shade of odds-on, or evens in a place.
Tyrrell Hatton was fuming when leaving the course at the end of round three and I'm surprised that we can take evens about a player in WILL ZALATORIS who has a good deal more affection for the course.
Hatton's 73 had looked like being much lower until a six at the 15th and another at the 18th and while he should be able to refocus on the top-12 finish he may need to return next year, I'm not sure how much that'll motivate a player who really doesn't like Augusta.
Zalatoris does, having been second and sixth in two previous visits, and his long-game was outstanding on Saturday. More of the same and he can outscore a playing partner liable to talk himself out of this if things go against him on a course which continues to firm up.
CAM SMITH doesn't yet have to worry about future Masters invitations given that he's a recent major champion, and he can produce a strong finish under ideal conditions.
Smith has been on the fringes all week, climbing the leaderboard with level-par rounds on Friday and Saturday as others struggle with wind and firming greens, which are exactly what he wants.
That gives him the edge of Byeong Hun An, who has performed admirably so far and is on the brink of his best major finish, but whose short-game is far more likely to be exposed on Sunday night.
I'll double him with fellow Australian CAMERON DAVIS, who can beat Nicolai Hojgaard.
The Dane went from leading the Masters to making five bogeys in a row on Saturday and while it'll teach him or lesson or two that he can use in the future, for now it's going to be hard to bounce back.
Hojgaard putted the lights out, too, which seems unlikely to happen again, and in Davis we've a player who has far more experience, and who is more likely to relish a firming golf course.
Davis finished strongly to place in the PGA Championship last May at odds of 250/1. He was the same price this week and can reward his backers again.
Posted at 0940 BST on 14/04/24
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