The Masters betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets, Sunday April 11
Golf betting tips: The Masters, final round
2pts Louis Oosthuizen to beat Jason Kokrak at evens (General)
2pts Marc Leishman to beat Justin Rose at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt double Oosthuizen and Leishman at 33/10 (Sky Bet)
When Hideki Matsuyama plays like he did on Saturday, he is not only one of the finest golfers in the world, but he is downright perfect for Augusta National. OK, he could putt better — a lot better, actually — but the roll of honour is littered with bad putters. Whether they find a strange comfort in knowing every putt is difficult, whether they enjoy not having to hit the ball hard, whether perhaps they need serious, in-your-face contouring to find the break, who can say. But you can be a bad putter and win here.
Rare is to be a mediocre iron player, and Matsuyama is anything but. The distance control he demonstrated on the back-nine is worth going back to watch on the Masters website. After what proved a vital up-and-down at the 10th, he hit his approach shots the correct distance on holes 11, 12, 13, 15, 16 and 17, and could afford to three-putt one of those holes and still burst into a four-shot lead. It was a masterclass from one of the sport's biggest underachievers.
Matsuyama has achieved a heck of a lot, too. To be a quiet Japanese man playing on the PGA Tour, for a long time without a compatriot on the circuit, and reach number two in the world while trying to master a new language and adapt to a new culture is remarkable. At his best, he won World Golf Championships by five and seven strokes, a strong Hero World Challenge by a couple, and won play-offs for the biggest event on home soil, plus three more on the PGA Tour. All this was years ago, and he is not yet 30.
Therein lies what makes this performance, his position, that four-shot 'cushion', so hard to weigh up. It is four years since Matsuyama put four rounds together and won, and then his confidence took a battering at the 2017 PGA Championship. He has said that he doesn't believe he's good enough to compete with the best players in the world. And yet, having mixed stunning golf with some rotten stuff over the first few months of 2021, here he stands with his best chance yet to win a major championship.
It's difficult to understate just how much pressure is on his shoulders, perhaps more so for this being the year of the Tokyo Olympics. Matsuyama is a superstar in Japan, and since Ryo Ishikawa's career plateaued, the horde of Japanese media at every big event have been there solely for him. I have sat in rooms where a reporter has asked a bemused American, at the end of their press conference on the eve of an Open Championship, 'so what do you think of Hideki Matsuyama? Is he good enough to win?' Whatever carrying the weight of a nation means, Matsuyama has had to do it.
Perhaps that's why he hasn't yet become a major champion, despite having run-up a brace of top-10 finishes in his first two as a professional and, for a time, been a regular contender. Perhaps that also explains to some degree why now, with limited fans and limited press at Augusta National, he's found this performance, and will carry a four-shot lead into the final round. That's a comfortingly simple explanation. Likely as relevant is that he has built up stacks of what's meant to be necessary Masters experience, that he has indeed been playing well in bursts, and that, sometimes, everything just falls into place.
I think he'll probably win, but odds of 5/6 make no appeal whatsoever. He has to be odds-on given the size of the lead, and the fact that even the most decorated player within five, Justin Rose, is a long time removed from his best form. To my eye he doesn't look like he's about to pile on pressure and showcase the poise of a US Open winner; in fact I wouldn't even be keen on backing him simply to outscore Matsuyama, and the biggest threats come from players with just as much to prove as the leader.
One of them is Xander Schauffele, himself a regular factor in majors, including here having been runner-up in 2019. The American has twice been second this year and has proven immensely frustrating since landing the Tournament of Champions in January, 2019. Suddenly, a player who first appeared particularly ruthless and reliable has appeared fragile, pulled drives into water at Colonial and Phoenix and a near-miss at Torrey Pines contributing to a string of runner-up finishes, six in total, since last he collected silverware.
Still, this is an ideal, stalking role for him to play, for all he'd love the gap to be two and not four. Just as the market does, I rate Schauffele considerably the biggest threat ahead, and next for me would be Marc Leishman. It's these two who outright punters should consider above Rose, Will Zalatoris, and Jordan Spieth, the latter in need of something special by even his standards. Spieth came with a Sunday burst to push Patrick Reed all the way in 2018 and will do for many at 15/2 without the favourite.
I just don't see a bet in the outright market. The chasing pack doesn't convince me entirely and a solid start can see Matsuyama go on and achieve something he's always been capable of. Sky Bet offer 11/2 that he maintains or extends his advantage, something Spieth and Dustin Johnson have done here, and I would rather speculate that he can do so rather than suggest a collapse of the Rory McIlroy or Greg Norman kind. Quite why, I'm not sure, but I don't see it happening.
What’s the best bet in the Masters today?
For two-ball punters, the fact that Jose Maria Olazabal was so competitive for so long on Saturday shouldn't kid us into a conclusion other than this one: William Hill's 4/6 about Brendon Todd beating him is absurd. Other firms go short of 1/2 and have it right. I can't recommend a bet that might only be available to a handful of readers, but if you can get that 4/6 you're getting value whether Todd shoots 80 or not.
I like the general even-money about LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN beating Jason Kokrak in their match (1610 BST).
Kokrak has come a long way over the last nine months or so, but he's still not up there with his major-winning playing partner, who just hasn't got anything going this week but looks the type to breeze his way to a good number on Sunday.
Oosthuizen's ball-striking has been solid enough but he's not taken advantage of the par-fives as yet and there's definitely a low score in him if he does. There's no pressure at all on his shoulders and unlike Kokrak, he's gone lower than 70 on a number of occasions here.
Given the experience and class edges Oosthuizen boasts over a rival prone to making a big number, evens simply looks a bit bigger than he should be. Those who've backed him for a top-20 finish may yet get paid out and the fact that he's just 6/5 to be top South African, which requires beating Charl Schwartzel by two and avoiding having his pocket picked by Christiaan Bezuidenhout, confirms that evens for a more straightforward head-to-head is decent business.
I also like odds-against about MARC LEISHMAN beating Rose (1930).
Although Rose holed a good putt on the final green to keep within four of the lead, there's no doubt he was very scrappy after what had been a dream start to the final round. He hit just nine greens and given that most of the bigger names have stalled to varying degrees, he'll be a little frustrated not to be closer.
I'm not sure how else to put it other than to say Thursday's stunning round looks all the more freakish as the week has progressed. Rose has been very much in-and-out for some time now, and I have greater confidence in Leishman delivering. He's beaten Rose in rounds two and three, having eliminated the mistakes which undermined some explosive play in round one, and can do so again.
And that's it. Perhaps this Masters has a twist in it; perhaps it will be a repeat of November, when Johnson led by four and won by five. Matsuyama has more to prove than he did, but when he plays like he did on Saturday it's clear to anyone he is good enough to win a major, and that Augusta National is the ideal place for it. That's why I put him up in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and there will of course be an element of frustration if he now does it at the biggest price he's been.
Such is the nature of the beast, and on a less selfish level I really hope he does it. What a thing it would be for his country, and a quiet, likeable, brilliant young player. Thank you for reading this week, and do be sure to come back for the Austrian Open and RBC Heritage next week. I cannot stress this enough: that's the real quiz.
Posted at 0845 BST on 11/04/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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