Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of ISPS Handa World Invitational

Golf betting tips: ISPS Handa World Invitational

4pts Jordan Smith to win the ISPS Handa World Invitational at 10/11 (General)

1pt e.w. Justin Harding without Smith and Horsey at 5/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Vincent Norrman without Smith and Horsey at 13/2 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. John Catlin without Smith and Horsey at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

It's a shame that the great initiative from Modest! Golf is opposite the chase for Olympic gold but those that have stuck with it have been rewarded with a cracking pair of events at Galgorm Castle with the final 35-and-ties from both the men's and women's events battling it out in splendid fashion alongside each other. The coverage, flitting quickly between the two, is speedy and presented confidently and the final round will be fascinating, perhaps even a view to the future. That won't be a bad thing.

It's a benefit for the 'factor' brigade at least on the men's side of things as soon-to-be-married JORDAN SMITH and new (sort of) father, David Horsey, battle it out at the top of the leaderboard. Take these as you like but the former seems more settled mentally than he has for a while, whereas the older player may well have been more serious than first appeared when admitting he was glad to get some sleep - his poor results since returning have certainly indicated something was up, clearly it was the three-month-old baby!

Of the two, who have pulled nicely clear of the field, Smith is very much favoured and should he continue in the vein of the first three rounds, he will win.

It's been a long time coming for the player that easily won the 2016 Challenge Tour Order of Merit and has only won once on the main tour, a victory which came in 2017 and was followed by a top-10 finish in a major championship. However there are many things in his favour here and, almost four years to the day since he took a play-off in Germany, he can come out on top in this head-to-head.

A top-grade tee-to-green player until affected by lockdown, not only was his putting sent into meltdown but his long-game has also been a bit of a struggle at times. For whatever reason, and it often doesn't matter why, he's got his mojo back this week, setting his stall out with an opening 62, overcoming a double-bogey when half asleep to begin round two, and keeping things moving on Saturday to leave most with a mountain to climb.

• Click here to back Smith with Sky Bet

Smith's six-foot par putt on the par-three 12th was an indication all was okay (long-suffering fans have long cried over weak putts from that range when in the coverage over a weekend), his play thereafter very careful and without error and his final round birdie a thing of meticulous play reminiscent of John Catlin and Aaron Rai, who filled the first two spots in September when Smith's own progress was hindered by that putter of his.

For more relating to this week's play, Twitter golf data pundit, @sgtee2green suggested last year's Irish Open top-10 gained most strokes on holes 3, 6, 9 and 16 - Smith is the only one of the current top-five that remains bogey-free on those this week.

Undoubtedly suited to a course which ties in nicely with some of those where he's proven comfortable, Smith only needed to have a decent putting week to be a factor in this sort of company. As it happens, he's had a brilliant one, and unless something goes horribly wrong on the greens he rates a very strong fancy to get the better of Horsey, who has struggled at times in the final group for all he's been able to win at this level.

With only 41 players making the final day cut at four-under and better, some of the side markets are less attractive than usual but it was fascinating to see VINCENT NORRMAN return a bogey-free, four-under back-nine after dropping away with a one-over first section and he is one of three who merit close inspection in the 'without' market.

This column was on last week when he landed a small profit with a top-10 finish after noting that the Swede's final 18 holes is consistently better than his Saturday round. A small sample with only four professional outings under his belt but facts are facts, and these last-round surges have taken him from 18th to 14th in Sweden, 23rd to fifth at the BMW International and, last Sunday, from 28th to 10th, having plummeted down the board in Wales after a 10 at the final par-five on 'moving' day.

• Click here to back Norrman with Sky Bet

If he continues that formline, he has to go close to landing another impressive top-five and like many in the chasing pack, he'll perhaps benefit from the gap to the front two. Norrman's future is massive but just where it lies remains unclear, having remarked that he's keen to try the Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School. This then is a free go at another nice cheque and his aggressive style could produce more final-round fireworks.

Last season's Irish Open winner, JOHN CATLIN, and Kenya winner JUSTIN HARDING, are the only other two players that appeal as likely to go forward and it will be a surprise if the best of the rest comes from outside this trio.

• Click here to back Harding with Sky Bet

With Daniel Hillier looking likely to struggle in his first big test at this level, showing his inexperience at vital times on Saturday, and both Darius van Driel and Masahiro Kawamura finding it tough to get over the line, go for the experienced couple to pay their way with what look like generous place terms.

Harding is all about tree-lined courses. Placed at Valderrama and Cape Town in the past he hasn't played more consistently in his career than in the last few months, threatening to win twice rather than just the once in Kenya, going well in a high-class BMW International Open and then losing a play-off last week.

When winning in Qatar in 2019, the 35-year-old came from 10th place and three behind while a week later in Kenya he finished runner-up from sixth and four shots shy of the lead. More recently, a final-round 65 at Celtic Manor almost saw him overturn a six-shot deficit and while it will be tough to defeat the front two now final round birdies have created a five- and six-shot deficit, his current level of play suggests he is better and more confident in the mix than surrounding him.

Catlin rather calls himself after beating Martin Kaymer at the toughest course on the circuit and then winning from behind both here and in Austria. His short game has gone awry recently but that pure tee-to-green game has not and last year's memories will still be relatively fresh. Again, he hasn't that much to beat to land even a place profit and though he'd have preferred this week to be more of a grind, there's no reason he can't produce his best stuff when it matters even if that is in defeat.

It's 13/8 and change that one of these three wins without Smith and Horsey, which in itself is a good option. However, Sky Bet pay the first four and it seems to me that in backing them all each-way we can win on the place market, too, with a little class and in one case plenty of potential set to go a long way in this company.

• Click here to back Catlin with Sky Bet

Posted at 2040 BST on 31/07/21

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