Farmers Insurance Open round one: Side with the specialists at Torrey Pines

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1pt double Woodland and Vegas to win their three-balls at 4/1

It’s not yet February, but already the engraver can get to work on the shock of the year trophy. Just where Adam Long’s victory in the desert came from, perhaps not even he knows; without taking anything away from a ballsy display and miraculous finish, I doubt he’s suddenly going to be a constant presence on PGA Tour leaderboards.

Long-term expectations aside, there are many experienced, world-class players who have suffered a dip after winning, and Long now swaps the relative tranquillity of PGA West for the brutal, unforgiving test of Torrey Pines, where – crucially – he begins on the altogether tougher South Course.

Long has no competitive form here at a venue so hard on first-time visitors and when combined with the emotional letdown which can be expected, he really could struggle. The prospect of him riding the crest of a wave to another excellent round of golf does exist, but it appears to be small.

Stewart Cink of course knows Torrey Pines well, but his form here has become patchy of late – four missed cuts in six, with finishes of 20th and 28th the exceptions. He can quite possibly do a little damage at the North Course, where he shot 64 in 2014, but the South asks a big question first.

Gary Woodland, on the other hand, absolutely adores the South. He actually says it suits his game far more than the North and he’s got plenty of rounds to his name to back that up even if, like most, he’s also been made to look foolish here once or twice.

The South Course is one of the longest on the PGA Tour and Woodland, who also has plenty of form on poa annua greens, has the ideal game for it. He’s 33/1 to win the tournament versus exchange prices of 300/1 and 400/1 for Cink and Long respectively, and I’m not sure odds-against quotes fairly reflect his likely superiority in this three-ball.

By way of comparison, he’s the same sort of price as Keegan Bradley is to see off Russell Knox and Grayson Murray. The latter is struggling, but he’s a Junior World Championship winner at Torrey Pines while Knox played very nicely last week, likes the course and has a touch of class when on-song.

Woodland’s competition is weaker in my view and while this section of the feature has made a slow start to 2019, I’m confident he’ll help begin to rectify that.

Others of note include Nick Watney, who has a power edge over Fabian Gomez and Scott Brown and is a Californian who loves it here. Still, Brown would worry me slightly – not to mention the fact that Watney is no longer reliable – and he’s not a big enough price to chance.

Jordan Spieth at upwards of 2/1 to beat Justin Rose and Billy Horschel looks fair, with Rose opposable for reasons touched upon last week, but the other standout offer on Thursday is the 6/4 quoted about Jhonattan Vegas to beat Danny Willett and Jim Herman.

Willett was very poor last week and I have my doubts as to whether a PGA Tour-centric schedule makes sense at this stage in his renaissance, which was by no means completed with victory in Dubai late last year. He’s making his tournament debut and could be found out, particularly off the tee.

Herman has made the odd bright start recently and has a decent record on the North Course which this trio will be playing, but ultimately this is a player whose last PGA Tour top-10 came almost two years ago, and who hasn’t offered much to work with since an injury-enforced absence in 2018.

Vegas, one of my more speculative outright plays, loves Torrey Pines. He’s played here more than the other two combined, he’s enjoyed much more success than Herman, and his distance advantage is another added bonus. He’s worth backing and if he does happen to disappoint, he’d be worth trying again on Friday.

The North-South divide

One of the key talking points in the run-up to the event, if your particular circle happens to be Golf Twitter, has been the supposed advantage for those teeing off at the South Course on Thursday. The last eight winners of this event have done so and it’s on such trends that many hopes are pinned.

To recap, everyone plays 18 holes at the South and 18 holes at the North before those surviving the cut play only the former – longer, tougher, much more penal – at the weekend.

Clearly, in-running punters need to be aware that the South will average higher. Just how much can vary from as little as 0.31 strokes in the first round last year, to more than four across the first 36 holes in 2014. Granted, the North has been redesigned since then, but it remains the course on which to create and take opportunities.

This would all appear to be bad news for Rahm, Rose, Day, Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo, Marc Leishman and the rest who start on the North, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to draw conclusions.

For any such bias to be taken at face value, I want to be able to understand it. Why would playing a certain rotation be so important? Ultimately, while informed speculation has been put forward by some excellent judges, I’m still to be convinced. The strongest suggestion appears to be that by Friday afternoon the poa annua greens of the South will be decidedly bumpy, but that might be worth a fraction of a shot at most.

Since the North was redesigned, there have been just two renewals. Last year’s was heavy in favour of South-first players, but 2017, despite Rahm’s win, less so. Runner-up Charles Howell started at the North in the very same group as fourth-placed Pat Perez, with Keegan Bradley also tied fourth, having started there as well.

This year’s tournament will at least help to clarify things. Taking the book as an accurate guide, there is a (very negligible) lean towards the North-first side of the draw – that is to say that it’s slightly more likely that one of them wins it than someone, like Tiger, who begins on the South.

If playing the North first can keep Rahm out of the top 10 and force Rose into a missed cut and we see another South-heavy leaderboard, perhaps it’ll be time to reconsider. For now, it's best to take a view wider than an arbitrary eight years.

State of Play

We knew as early as Monday that Jon Rahm would start favourite here barring accident, but what we didn’t know was that the 2017 champion – who put up a solid defence last year – would be so strong at the head of the betting.

No doubt, that’s influenced by the fact he’s the Racing Post’s headline selection, plus those concerns I mentioned surrounding various rivals. Justin Rose in particular is weak at 20 on Betfair Exchange after a slightly inauspicious start to life after Taylor Made, while at 10 points bigger new Taylor Made ball-user Rickie Fowler hasn’t been popular at all.

Neither of those surprise me, but the fact that Jason Day has been so easy to back certainly does. For my money he ought to be clear second favourite here yet that honour goes to Tiger Woods. Granted, the latter is a seven-time winner of the event who won his last PGA Tour start in September, but Day’s own record here is excellent and he’d be much preferred of the two.

Woods knows this place like the back of his hand and is perfectly adept when it comes to tuning up quickly following a break, but it’s a definite advantage that Day has played already in 2019. He’s by far and away the biggest threat to Rahm in an event where course specialists and multiple winners are common.

Rory McIlroy remains solid as ever, bigger than Tiger but shorter than Day. He’ll need to overcome the fact that this is his course debut and as he starts on the South, we’ll likely find out very quickly whether he’ll be in the mix come the end of the week. He’ll be eager to be, of course, with this run of poor Sundays beginning to worry everyone.

For all the movement, though, the market for the Farmers has not been particularly volatile. This is an elite field and an established event. Just like the South Course on which 54 holes are played, everything is right there in front of us.

Selections box

My selections: Cantlay, Grillo, Tway, Walker, Vegas

Dave Tindall: Snedeker, Bradley, Laird

Steve Palmer: Rahm, Schauffele, Grillo, SW Kim

Niall Lyons: Cantlay, Ancer, Reed, Bradley, Walker, Hoffman

Steve Bamford: Finau, Woodland, Palmer, Mitchell, Laird

Steve Rawlings: Day, Woodland, Snedeker, Horschel, Vegas, Stallings