Rocco Forte Open betting preview and tips
Ben Coley had a 500/1 place payout in his last preview, so don't miss his take on the Rocco Forte Open as the European Tour heads to Sicily.
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With the BMW PGA Championship at a revamped Wentworth fast approaching, there's an unsurprisingly low-key feel to the first edition of the Rocco Forte Open, where they will be playing for around 15 percent of the money which will be dished out in Surrey a week on Sunday.
Still, such events bring opportunities, both for players like Matt Wallace, who is officially a European Tour champion after beating up a weak field in Portugal, and for punters who could've backed this bright young talent at upwards of 50/1.
Not to say he'd have been on my list necessarily, but the point is these low-grade events are harder to price up and favourites are often there by default, rather than representing any level of reliability.
The honour of market leader goes to Jordan Smith and while he's probably got more up his sleeve than even Wallace, the young Challenge Tour graduate missed the cut on his last start, hasn't played competitively in a month and doesn't scream value at 20/1 even if he's entitled to feel like his best stuff could well account for these.
Neither does 25/1 chance James Morrison, although this fairly frequent winner does have plenty to recommend him, including a strong record on courses designed by Kyle Phillips, who is responsible for the composite 18 holes in play here at Verdura Golf Club in Sicily.
Keen European Tour observers may recognise the name and that's because we've been to Verdura before - five years ago to be precise - when Thorbjorn Olesen got the better of a charging Chris Wood to land his breakthrough European Tour title, and while one year's form isn't much to go on, there are some clues worth noting.
First and foremost, this seaside layout, described as links-like in nature, threw up a distinctly links-like leaderboard.
Olesen went on to finish second in the Dunhill Links later in 2012 and has subsequently gone one place better in that prestigious event, while Wood had earlier made a name for himself with a pair of top-fives in the Open Championship and went on to win his first title at the breezy Doha GC.
Third-placed Soren Kjelsen is both a links fan (see his win in the Irish Open at Royal County Down) and something of a Phillips specialist, having pieced together an incredible record at Valderrama in particular, while alongside him was Nicolas Colsaerts, whose Phillips form extends to PGA Sweden National and Hilversumsche, where he once shot an opening 62 en route to eighth.
Even the fifth home here in 2012, the lesser-known Jose Manuel Lara, has a bank of Phillips and seaside form to further underline the expected formula, while sixth-placed Antony Wall has been runner-up at Valderrama, and next to him was links lover and Valderrama fourth Shane Lowry.
Morrison, who was fourth at Valderrama last year, therefore makes plenty of sense but at around twice the price I'm much more taken by the claims of another Englishman in the shape of David Horsey.
Like Morrison, Horsey is by no means flashy but he does have six professional wins to his name, four of them on the European Tour and three in mainland Europe. That makes him a class above most of these.
While a lack of power would be some kind of concern here given that it's a par 72 which does allow the bigger hitters to open up their shoulders, Horsey has a game similar to that of Kjeldsen and could well plot his way into contention as he did just two starts ago in the Indian Open.
Granted, he failed to make an impression in Morocco after a five-week break last time but that claustrophobic course caught him on a bad day and his performance there is nowhere near enough to justify twice the price of the admittedly consistent Morrison.
Horsey boasts a superb record at Hilversumsche, a Phillips-designed links course where he's twice been inside the top six from just three attempts, while he was 12th at another Phillips course when the comparatively high-class British Masters visited The Grove last autumn.
In 2015, he shot 64 at Kingsbarns, the Phillips links used as part of the Alfred Dunhill, an event in which he's started to prove a serious threat with a pair of top-15 finishes across the last two years.
A solid performer in the wind thanks no doubt to a compact, repeatable swing, Horsey ticks all of the required boxes and a final boost comes in the shape of his record in Italy, which includes four top-10 finishes from nine visits, including fifth place in a much better field for the Italian Open last September.
That event was won by home favourite Francesco Molinari, whose brother Edoardo won in Morocco recently, and with Italian golf flying it'd be no surprise if Renato Paratore gained his first success in a field like this one.
Given that Paratore is considered one of the very brightest young talents on the circuit, and that he arrives in good form thanks to finishes of 18th and eighth recently, I'm surprised to see anything bigger than 33/1 available about a player with ties to the course from his amateur days not too long ago.
Paratore also boasts some eye-catching coastal form having been seventh in the Alfred Dunhill Links last year, one of his standout European Tour performances to date and one he followed with a credible 22nd place at The Grove.
It's just three starts ago that Paratore played in the final group in Morocco and while disappointed to shoot a closing 75, it's all part of the learning curve and it would be a surprise were he not contending for titles regularly over the coming seasons.
And while playing on home soil is not always a positive, it has certainly helped Francesco Molinari when it comes to the crunch and I've faith that Paratore has it in him to produce the goods on a course which really should suit him down to the ground.
Alexander Bjork is another highly promising youngster and he's progressed throughout each start in Italy, all at a slightly lower level, while Scotland's Scott Jamieson has it in him to win an event like this, has been fourth at Hilversumsche and appears to be close to his best form.
However, I'm sticking with a couple of English players to complete the staking plan, with Wallace's win last week and the upcoming BMW PGA Championship no doubt small factors which could help the right man step up a level.
Perhaps it's Tom Lewis, for whom Wallace's win may prove particularly significant as these two are good friends, and Wallace in fact spoke to Lewis for a little word of advice during last week's breakthrough.
That it came in Portugal, where a fresh-faced Lewis appeared to have the world at his feet when winning in 2011, may also help ignite a spark in a lost talent whose pure swing and on-course demeanour appeared certain to produce results.
Lewis might be outside the world's top 500 now but he's only 26 and the ability is there, so my hope is that a trigger like victory for a friend he would often beat as an amateur may just work the oracle.
It's not as if Lewis is playing badly, anyway. He was 18th himself in Portugal, where he ranked inside the top 10 for ball-striking, his third top-20 finish of the season, and in this grade it's only minor improvement required for a place.
Unlike many of these, Lewis has experience of the venue having been 11th here in 2012, a dire season otherwise and one in which he failed to crack the top 30 in a full-field stroke play event anywhere else.
That suggests the course is to his liking and as a player who burst on the scene in the Open Championship six years ago and went on to bag a top-three finish in the 2013 Dunhill Links, golf like this really should help him show that there remains the potential for bigger and better things.
The same is true of Chris Paisley, another young English player with a touch of class and a sweet swing and one who is worth chancing at 150/1.
Paisley's last visit to Italy saw him chase home Molinari and Danny Willett and that's far from the only time he's looked capable of adding to one victory on the Challenge Tour.
Granted, much of his best form has come on parkland courses like the one he plays at home in Hexham, but one of the more eye-catching performances of his career came in 2013 when, under immense pressure to keep his card, Paisley finished in a share of 12th in the Dunhill Links.
Ultimately, it wasn't enough to get the job done and he slipped back to the Challenge Tour, but it remains a high-class effort in difficult circumstances and it's significant that the result was built around a superb 62 at Kingsbarns.
More recently, he's bound to have been inspired by a trip to Birkdale, where this summer's Open Championship takes place, and that seaside outing might just have him spot on for this.
Paisley hasn't been pulling up any trees lately but he's made nine cuts in succession, a run of consistency similar to that which preceded his breakthrough effort in Germany a couple of years ago, and it's not asking much for him to convert solid play into career-changing scores.
Any of Ben's picks to win - 14/1! Check out Sky Bet's Sporting Life specials
Posted at 1910 BST on 15/05/17.
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