Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Vidanta Vallarta.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open round four
1pt Pavon and Griffin to win their three-balls at 17/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
One of the early lessons in golf betting school is it’s always hard to follow up a super-low round with another one. But if we want evidence that, actually, shooting the lights out two days in a row can be done, Andrew Novak has provided it over the middle two rounds of this week’s Mexico Open.
After surging to the top of the leaderboard with a second-round 10-under 61 - a score which matched his lowest round on the PGA Tour - Novak kept his foot down with a 9-under 62 on Saturday. The result: a dominant six-shot lead which makes the 31-year-old from North Carolina a massive 1/10 favourite to go on and secure his first solo win at this level. His previous success was the 2025 Zurich Classic pairs event with Ben Griffin.
Novak, who also won the Grant Invitational with Lauren Coughlin last December, was eighth in this event when he last played it in 2024 and 15th in 2022 so he did have some course form. The secret to his incredible scoring this week? “Yeah, I've just driven it really well for the most part, then hit a lot of really good iron shots, and then made a lot of putts.”
If that sounds a bit simplistic, he offered a more detailed follow-up. “I’ve been trying to be patient all year and just tell myself like if I ever get the putting sorted out, this is what it's going to look like. Finally patience has kind of paid off and this is what I kept telling myself was going to happen. I've still got 18 more holes, but it is cool to see that what I thought I could do, I'm actually doing now that I've finally got a putter that's going in the hole.” Novak is 1st for Strokes Gained: Putting (by a mile) this week.
He’s also aware of the wider ramifications of a win. “It would be my first solo one, so that would be very big. And then obviously there's implications for, what, 2028 and beyond. Yeah, it would be huge.” It’s this latter quote that suggests that Sunday could be something a bit more cautious. Nothing too aggressive. Just get this thing over the line.
So, back to the opening thought, and maybe we need a tweak: it’s hard to follow up two super-low rounds with a third one. I think it’s a fair angle, especially as the third is on Sunday with everything on the line. In other words, it looks viable to oppose Novak in a three-ball.
His opponents are nearest rival, MATTHIEU PAVON, who sits at 17-under to Novak’s 23-under. It’s a further stroke back to the very in-form Doug Ghim. Pavon closed with a pair of birdies (on tough holes) in his 6-under 65 to sneak into second while Ghim played a six-hole stretch (8-13) in 6-under on the way to a 64. Like Novak, Ghim is seeking his first win.
All are actually excellent Sunday scorers but Pavon ranks an eye-catching 3rd in the Round 4 charts this season. He’s one of just three players - Scottie Scheffler and Jake Knapp are the other two - to average under 68 on pay day. His last two final-rounds are a 64 in his home Open de France (which obviously didn’t count for his stellar PGA Tour R4 record) and 63 at the Bank of Utah Championship.
The Frenchman has good friend Xavier Poncelet on the bag this week, a recent development, and the pair teamed up to finish third at the Open de France. Speaking about it on Saturday, Pavon said: “I just needed something a little bit different. I wasn't really enjoying my year so far, being lonely on the road and not playing well, and I felt like I needed like a good friend with a nice shoulder next to me, and he's just bringing that nice positive attitude and a very fun attitude.”
Pavon ranks 1st for SG: Tee To Green this week and 3rd for Approach so he’s clearly getting some good numbers from his bagman. Ghim is obviously in fine form but the betting can surely only lead us one way. Ghim is around even money to win this three-ball while Pavon is as big as 3/1 (Novak 7/4). Pavon is also worth consideration if any ‘without Novak’ markets appear.
I also have a sneaky feeling that Novak’s stellar 54-hole performance and likely victory march is being enjoyed by his Zurich partner and good buddy, BEN GRIFFIN. After being rewarded for his 2025 excellence with a Ryder Cup spot, Griffin hasn’t hit those levels this season but, at 28th, he’s still one of the highest-ranked players in the field and his week is going well.
This is Griffin’s first start since he went out of the Playoffs in round two after a rather lacklustre run but during his two months off, the American has switched to the Spider putter and also changed caddies. This is his first event with veteran looper Jon Yarbrough and, again, the immediate impact is positive. Yarbrough, by the way, was on Jim Furyk’s bag for his 59 at the BMW Championship and has also worked with Phil Mickelson.
Griffin’s Sunday three-ball sees him go out alongside Pierceson Coody and Max Greyserman, all three men sitting at 15-under. Griffin actually had a little dip with the putter on Saturday but his TTG and Approach numbers were the best of the three while he’s also the one with course form having finished fourth at Vidanta Vallarta the last time he played here. The double on Pavon and Griffin pays 17/2.
Posted at 09:10 GMT on 01/11/25
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