European Tour: BMW PGA Championship final round betting preview and tips

Recommended Bets

3pts Eddie Pepperell to win his two-ball at 5/6

1pt e.w. Patrick Reed to win at 8/1 (1,2,3)

Saturday at Wentworth proved to be both entertaining and eventful. I half expected the joint overnight leaders Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick to maybe pull away from the field but in fact quite the opposite happened.

Between the pair of them, they managed to shoot six over with the young Englishman coming off the worse with a four over par round that contained only one birdie. There was much talk about his 'spat' with Bryson Dechambeau causing this poor round, but I would rather put it down to how disappointed he was with his double-bogey finish on Friday when two clear at the top.

On Monday, Ben Coley was very bullish about the chances of Lowry this week, saying: “I think he's about the best bet since golf returned in June.” Eight holes into Saturday's round and Lowry backers had every reason to feel confident but a double-bogey at nine seemed to cause him to lose his swing over the back nine holes. He was a little unlucky having to play his third shot into the closing hole in a very heavy shower, but he is still only four back and many players who fall out of the lead on a Saturday have bounced back on a Sunday.

The cream has definitely risen to the top with four of the top five ranked players in the world who are playing this week residing in the top seven places, and everyone will be trying to catch and pass world number 15, Tyrrell Hatton. He holds a three shot lead which really should have been bigger as he only played the last four holes in level par.

Hatton (below) can be rather hit and miss when having the lead - he barely clung on at Bay Hill earlier in the year - plus favourites heading into the final round here have a very poor record, with the last seven being beaten.

We often see players streaking through the field on a Sunday at Wentworth, with as many as three coming from as far back as seven shots, but I think realistically the winner is one of those currently within four of the lead. There is also a bit of history with Hatton and the final round at the Burma Road - in 2016 he was second, just one shot back, but fired a 75 to fall back into a tie for seventh.

Victor Perez and JB Hansen are the closest challengers sitting on 11-under and the former has already proven a year ago that he could take a big title when lifting the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, succeeding Hatton in the process. I just wonder whether that was a little different to what he faces on Sunday as it was a Pro-Am. Hansen has yet to win at this level and admitted in an on-course interview that he was a little surprised at his form so far this week, so the closest two names have questions to answer.

Pre-event favourite Tommy Fleetwood was four over through seven holes on Thursday but battled back well. If his putter had behaved, he would probably be leading by now - it's already cost him two European Tour titles recently and this could be another. Whilst I would love to see Fleetwood win - he has to be one of the most likeable players out there - he simply doesn’t take that many of the opportunities he has to convert.

Sitting alongside him is another Englishman in David Horsey and, whilst he has four tour titles to his name, none have come in the past five years or at this level, and it’s always difficult to back up a low one.

I guess by a process of elimination and looking at the prices then I have picked Patrick Reed, the only player to shoot a bogey-free round on Saturday even though he is going through some swing changes.

He has his critics, and rightly so, but it is refreshing to hear him say he owes it to the European Tour to come and play this week. He wants to win this big event to add to the big titles he has already won and, if you look at his last four wins, we find two Fedex Playoff events, a WGC event earlier this year and a major.

Remember, he's second in the Race to Dubai and that's a big carrot, surely the reason he's here. Win or lose he has all the motivation in the world heading into the final round and looks the one capable of reeling in the odds-on favourite.

The one player I want to oppose in the two balls is Pablo Larrazabal, who had a sensational back nine on Saturday, but if there was ever a player who cannot back up a low round then the Spaniard is that player. If you look at his low rounds this year and what he followed them with the results are clear cut: Scottish Open 64-76; Hero Open 64-75; Qatar 63-72.

He is drawn with 'steady' Eddie Pepperell, a player unlikely to shoot the lights out on a Sunday, but then he probably won’t have to in order to outscore the Spaniard. He rates the best bet.

Preview posted at 2035 BST on 10/10/20