Ben Coley doesn't hold out much hope for the Internationals in the Presidents Cup, where his focus is on the top scorer markets.
Golf betting tips: Presidents Cup
3pts Cameron Young to be the top overall scorer at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts Xander Schauffele to be the top overall scorer at 10/1 (General)
3pts Ryan Fox to be the top Internationals scorer at 11/1 (General)
2pts Min Woo Lee to be the top Internationals scorer at 9/1 (General)
What's the betting for the Presidents Cup?
The United States are no bigger than 1/4 with sportsbooks and shorter than that at around 1.21 (1/5) on Betfair Exchange, where the Internationals are drifting towards 7/1 (5/1 generally).
The tie, which occurred in 2003, is 16/1.
Is it likely to be as one-sided as that?
Yes, probably. The United States have won the last 10 renewals, by an average of more than four points, and the overall record reads 13-1-1 in their favour. The Internationals won in 1998 at Royal Melbourne but haven't come close on US soil since 1996, when they still trailed after every session.
It's not just history which gives them a notable advantage. They boast the superior players, too. Those players are all in good form – indeed the likely 12th man, Jacob Bridgeman, won last week.
The Internationals have won three tournaments between them this year. The three rookies on the USA side have managed to win twice that number between them. Scottie Scheffler, in what's largely been considered a modest year by his own standards, has also won three times and the combined figure for the side is 16.
They're at home, where they've never not won, and there is no single metric or even narrative which can be used to form a case against them.
Everything points to another United States victory.
But, the Miracle of Medinah...
Ah, yes. We are indeed at Medinah, scene of Europe's stunning comeback to win the 2012 Ryder Cup. Perhaps Internationals captain Geoff Ogilvy will try to summon that spirit. But while some members of the USA captaincy collective were involved (Brandt Snedeker and three of his vice captains lost singles matches that day), none of the players were.
If anything, Snedeker will be all the more keen to conjure some positive memories from a golf course where two members of his side finished first and second in the 2019 BMW Championship. That the USA suffered their most heartbreaking team defeat here seems an irrelevance, except to give us things to talk about, memories to relive.
More significant could be the fact that eight members of this team lost the Ryder Cup at Bethpage last year, when widely expected to make home advantage count. It's possible to argue that this will only help to create intensity and avoid complacency, particularly as they'll see it as a chance to prepare for the revenge mission in Ireland next year.
What positives are there for the Internationals?
Err, well... golf? Last week, we were one birdie away from one of the biggest shocks in memory at the BMW PGA Championship. Ryan Fox, a rookie for the Internationals, was about 100/1 to win the Open this year; by comparison, the prospects of the Internationals winning the Presidents Cup appear strong. And we did just see GB&I win the Walker Cup, for which they were significant underdogs (though less significant than Ogilvy's side).
Facetiousness aside, the Internationals do boast three major champions, plus two Korean players who've enjoyed very strong summers, an enormous talent in Min Woo Lee, a second Japanese player for the first time, and a third Korean who has always had something special about him and showed it as a rookie back in 2019.
Then there's the captain himself. Not only is Ogilvy a thoughtful, intelligent, former major champion respected throughout the game, but he helped redesign Medinah. If there is any edge regarding how to play this course, how to pair and to prepare players, he's the man to find it.
Who are the key players for the USA?
You could name almost any one of the 12, such is the strength at Snedeker's disposal. The fact that Scheffler hasn't yet enjoyed a good Presidents Cup yet has only ever won the Presidents Cup could be seen as scary in itself: what if, for the first time since his 2021 Ryder Cup debut, Scheffler performs to his best? That would only unlock more points for a USA side that needed much more from him in Rome and New York.
Wyndham Clark hasn't contributed much so far, either, but comes here a three-time winner this year and two-time US Open champion. Sam Burns lost four from five on debut but bounced back to play a key role in Canada and has gone up a notch since. Cameron Young was exceptional in a poor side at Bethpage. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, together or apart, make a formidable duo.
Chris Gotterup might get a run-out with Scheffler and looks made for the course and the format, Jackson Koivun is widely touted as the next Scheffler or something close to it, and we've not mentioned Justin Thomas or Collin Morikawa or Bridgeman or the reliable Russell Henley. This is a formidable side.
And for their opponents?
For the Internationals, Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama have always been key, but perhaps the burden will be eased slightly by having a newly-minted major champion in Ryan Fox, and a ready-made Korean partnership in Si Woo Kim and Tom Kim. Along with Min Woo Lee, it's the automatic qualifiers who simply must deliver.
Further down the list, Ryo Hisatsune may get a go alongside his compatriot Matsuyama, while Corey Conners will hope to do better with Nick Taylor than he did with Taylor Pendrith. All this speaks to a conundrum Ogilvy will have to find an answer to: is new-age data, pairing suitability and so on more or less important than having players from the same country who know each other well?
What sort of player will Medinah favour?
At 7,548 yards, Medinah Country Club is a long, reportedly soft golf course. It has, however, been transformed by a significant redesign since last we saw it in competition, a project undertaken by Ogilvy, Mike Cocking and Ashley Mead. The trio were extreme in their pitch and have delivered accordingly, with new routing, three entirely new holes, and a transformed golf course which has received positive reviews.
There are 47 new bunkers, the acreage of fairways has doubled to the point that some are as wide as 60 yards, there's less rough, and the greens are much bigger. In many ways it looks like it might've been lifted from Australia, which was arguably the unspoken part of the proposal from the outset. The course looks all the better for it.
But while Ogilvy played a key role in the redesign, home captain Snedeker still gets to set the course up for the week. He's asked for a five-foot-wide collar of intermediate rough to frame the fairways, followed by rough raised to four inches. The PGA Tour's own analysis states that this is because Snedeker assumes his team will be more accurate. I think it might be the opposite: long rough on a long course tends to favour power.
Ultimately, Medinah looks like it could be a bit of a slog for the very shortest hitters, but given the size of the greens and the number of approach shots that will be played from the fairway, plus the penalty for missing on the wrong side, approach play ought to be decisive. The best of the Internationals can compete here, but it won't surprise you to learn that the United States still hold the edge.
Is there a bet in the main markets?
There's an undeniable lack of hype around this renewal of the Presidents Cup, perhaps the consequence of years-long USA dominance, compounded by an International side that doesn't and cannot currently feature players banned from the PGA Tour. Throw in home advantage for the favourites and no wonder many are writing this off.
Frustratingly, that apathy extends to bookmakers who waited until the Monday of the event to price up top scorer markets despite the format and teams having been known for a long time, and as of Tuesday are largely keeping to the most basic of options. It would've been too much to ask for things like first tee shot, but it's a real shame only bet365 and William Hill have the winning margin chalked up and most firms have neglected to offer handicap betting.
William Hill offer 11/8 about USA winning by 7+ points, which means reaching 18.5 in total, as they did two years ago, and it's worth saying you'd actually only get to about 11/10 if you bet all the individual correct scores at top prices. Following that same process but taking out some extremes, you'll get about 15/8 for the USA to score between 18.5 and 21 points, but that William Hill price is probably where the value lies.
Coral and Ladbrokes meanwhile are even-money the USA to successfully give away 4.5 points on the handicap, i.e. to win by 5+ points. This would leave them requiring 17.5 and is the same line offered by bet365, who are much shorter at 4/6. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair split the difference at 5/6.
These are all good options, while for those wishing to enhance the price about a wide-margin USA win, playing in the region of 19-11 to 20-10 gets you close to 9/2 for a correct score group.
What about the top overall scorer?
Still, for me betting on the Presidents Cup is the embodiment of supplementing enjoyment of sport with a wager and who really wants to spend four days hoping the United States slaughter their opponents, all to multiply your money by 1.375?
Instead, we'll head to the top combined/overall scorer market in expectation that a home golfer wins. There have been seven renewals in the USA and nine players have either top-scored or shared that honour; eight were Americans, with Retief Goosen the only International to muscle in. Lately, nobody has been close.
Scheffler is 5/1 but his record has to be a nagging concern and backers would be better off placing a rolling accumulator on every match he's involved in. Yes, this would fundamentally change the bet because he could win top scorer with 4.5 points, but on the other hand it would also remove dead-heat deductions and it may just be that 5-0-0 is required to land the money.
Preference is for CAMERON YOUNG, who looks better value at 16/1.
Young was exceptional at Bethpage, winning three points from four and making a clutch birdie to galvanise the USA by winning his Sunday singles match with Justin Rose, having been sent out first. That was a massive show of faith from his captain, Keegan Bradley, who is part of Snedeker's team here.
Of course, Young being a New Yorker and Bethpage being a beast of a golf course were both major factors, but he also looks set to be suited by Medinah and I could see him becoming the latest US player to string together high-class performances in the red, white and blue.
Thomas for example followed a fine Presidents Cup debut (T2 in scoring) by top-scoring in the next two team competitions he played in and after going 4-0-0 on his Presidents Cup debut (T2), Max Homa was the top USA scorer in the following year's Ryder Cup. The player who tied first with Young at Bethpage, Xander Schauffele, had been joint top-scorer in Montreal the previous year.
Young's debut in this was also better than it looks as he was anchored by Kevin Kisner and never once had a powerful partner at a big golf course before losing a tight singles match, so he's building a nice profile, I suspect he'll love this course, and the fact that one of his potential partners is a brilliant pairs golfer whose partner went 5-0-0 at the last home Presidents Cup is another boost.
It's easy to forget that at Bethpage he was a one-time PGA Tour winner and that a small event. Since then he's captured the Players Championship, a Signature Event at Doral and been in front on Sunday in two of the four majors. He will be extremely difficult for anyone to beat and I'm hopeful that Snedeker is invested in the idea of him being a talismanic figure for the USA, one who can play five times.
I don't believe that there are many viable winners of this market. It's a very, very short price we're talking about an American, but Bridgeman and Henley may not play enough, I'd be wary of Morikawa given persistent back issues in the spring may leave him reluctant or unable to play every session, Clark might be considered a bit too wayward for foursomes, and both Koivun and Gotterup are rookies who won't expect to be rolled out for every session either.
That leaves Thomas Scheffler, Burns, Cantlay and Schauffele, the last four having made up a Tuesday practice pod and very much the core of this team. Cantlay is arguably most likely to be benched at some stage despite his past exploits, while I do still have some reservations about Scheffler and Burns as a pairing. They're 0-3-1 across competitions so far and would be under serious pressure to deliver. Thomas, meanwhile, hasn't been at his best.
SCHAUFFELE has developed a fine record across team competitions since his 2019 debut (3-2-0) and set the tone when demolishing Jason Day in the opening singles match two years ago (4-1-0). Having gone 3-1-0 at Quail Hollow, he's only been benched for one of 15 sessions and has an excellent strike-rate.
His long-game looked very good towards the end of the season and as argued with Young, there's precedent for players developing their roles within the team and delivering in successive team competitions. Only in Rome has he failed to deliver and it's worth noting he received the double whammy of being paired with a misfiring Morikawa and then being benched.
Schauffele responded by winning his singles emphatically and he then thrashed Jon Rahm at Bethpage, and at the same price he was two years ago looks a good back-up option.
And the Internationals...?
The obvious play for Ogilvy's side is Tom Kim, who is sure to be paired with Si Woo early on and could be anchored to him until Sunday, but can be backed at a couple of points bigger. Kim's form stacks up, too, and while his Presidents Cup record isn't quite as encouraging, he lost a tight match to one of the standout players in the 2022 singles (Homa), and was then badly drawn again when halving with Burns in 2024.
My worry is that this might not be a great course for them and the bet therefore has to be RYAN FOX, who seems set to be paired with Scott at some point but again is a much bigger price. If they click and get on the scoreboard, how likely is it that Ogilvy benches his most recent major champion? Given the class divide here, it might be 'winner stays on' for the Internationals and they look as strong a pairing as any.
At 11/1, the Open champion with the power to handle Medinah and a putter which warmed up last week looks a better bet than Hisatsune, who is fully 10 points bigger than Matsuyama but could be out with him on Thursday. Again, if they win, they would be difficult to separate; this is the first time Matsuyama has had a Japenese teammate and he may benefit from that.
But Hisatsune's form and lack of experience are worries which could also undermine Matsuyama's prospects and I prefer MIN WOO LEE at around the 9/1 mark.
He was underused on debut and has come a long way since, such that he should be considered one of the key players for the Internationals after a top-five finish to end the PGA Tour season.
As with Fox and Scott, I expect he'll love the course, especially if there are elements of the Melbourne Sandbelt to it now. Wide fairways, thick rough, options when you miss greens and plenty of risk-rewards sounds right up his street one way or another.
I will admit that a Tuesday group which suggests he's likely to partner Im is slightly worrying given that both can be unreliable with their approaches, but they're also two of the highest-upside players who on their day can putt the lights out. It's possible they click.
Besides, I doubt these groupings tell us everything and he might just get another run-out alongside Scott. Certainly, that would be high on my list of priorities and while I'm against Scott on the grounds that five sessions might be a big ask, perhaps he can propel Fox and Lee to the sort of weeks that their captain will need.
Scott will be desperate to deliver for Ogilvy in what could be his final Presidents Cup in the USA. After a good performance at Wentworth, I've tried to find a way to side with him scoring well and that is to back two of his likeliest partners at bigger odds.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 22/09/26
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