Ben Coley assesses the state of play at the PGA Championship, where he has a 4/1 double for Friday's three-balls.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round two
1pt treble Russell Henley, Matti Schmid and Taylor Pendrith to win their three-balls at 9/2 (General)
1pt trixie Day (15/8), N Hojgaard (evs) and Rahm (6/4) to win their three-balls (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
The star of the show on day one of the PGA Championship was the golf course. Talk of Aronimink being vulnerable to the modern game, made louder by overnight rain, proved utterly unfounded as players scrapped for every opportunity, a far cry from when last the best men's golfers came here for a pillow fight at the BMW Championship.
In the end, two-over was a slightly better than average score and anyone breaking par could say they had a good day. That included two of my pre-tournament selections, Joaquin Niemann and Brooks Koepka, though no doubt both were frustrated about the way their competitive scores were compiled. Koepka in particular was terrible on the greens, fully seven worse than one of the leaders who outscored him only by two.
Perhaps he'll find the key in time to contend for a title he won in 2018, 2019 and 2023 but it was another frustrating start to a major for these pages, with Patrick Cantlay also hitting the ball supremely well without reward. Among the early starters, Koepka comfortably led the field in strokes-gained ball-striking, Niemann ranked fifth, and Cantlay ranked eighth.
Then a bigger problem emerged in the evening. Scottie Scheffler putted beautifully as he picked about the golf course to join the leaders and he's 7/4 to defend his title and move on to five majors, all won within his last 18 starts. Were he to do so, Scheffler would likely head to Shinnecock for the US Open as about a 7/2 chance to complete the career grand slam and join McIlroy in the history books.
Scheffler looks like being incredibly hard to beat and those hoping this doesn't turn into a procession may be left hoping Friday's wind arrives early and departs late. More likely, based on the latest weather forecast, is that it is broadly similar all day long, but in that scenario you wonder just how firm and challenging this course might be by the time the likes of Koepka and Niemann return for their second rounds. And how far behind Scheffler they might then be.
With more bookmakers pricing up the full slate of three-balls on Wednesday, after Thursday's preview had been published, and doing so again for round two, there's scope to roll up some of those that look more like two-balls.
Among the best early options, RUSSELL HENLEY and MATTI SCHMID are preferred.
Henley putted horrendously on Thursday but that club has been largely reliable this year and anything around average for round two should be enough to beat JT Poston and Ben Kern.
Henley is 60 places ahead of Poston in the DataGolf rankings and 5/6 to outscore him over 18 holes looks excellent value after a shot separated them, in Poston's favour, yesterday. That was all down to a host of short missed putts late in Henley's round and he can put that right.
Schmid is up against Austin Smotherman and Timothy Wiseman. He beat them by three and five strokes respectively in the first round and what's notable is that Smotherman relied on his putter.
Among the touring pros in this field his short-game is among the very worst so that's no good thing to continue, and as Aronimink firms up there's only going to be more pressure on getting up and down.
That almost put me onto Andrew Putnam as well but Matt Wallace is a player I don't want to take on, so we'll move to the evening where TAYLOR PENDRITH rates the best bet.
He's against William Mouw, who has withdrawn pre-tournament a couple of times lately and hit the ball like someone still short of his best. Chris Gabriele, who putted well but shot 77, isn't expected to be a factor.
There are some other viable options at shorter odds including Ryan Fox and Si Woo Kim, but these three stand out as a nice 9/2 treble.
I'd like to take on Aldrich Potgieter, the player who was seven better than Koepka with the putter. He'll be exposed around here I think, his chipping some of the worst in the field, and is the type you'd love to be able to lay at extremely short odds to make the cut. Potgieter has boundless potential but remains very rough around the edges and it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever were he to shoot a big number.
But his playing partners don't inspire confidence, David Puig the right favourite but similarly raw and Denny McCarthy neither hitting it well enough to be recommended, nor of a profile you'd want to take on. He can hole everything and very much did on Thursday. All three ultimately have something to prove, even the one who shared the lead early on.
Same again on another Day
Less than an hour later, JASON DAY makes his way to the tee alongside Gary Woodland and Sam Burns and among the more high-profile three-balls absent of PGA club professionals, the Aussie looks worth having on-side.
His skills around the green are exceptional and that's going to be of significant value as Aronimink dries out and officials push the boundaries a little, so the fact that he also ranked among the best iron players in an opening 69 is encouraging. Day holed very little but didn't have to and having enjoyed his two previous visits to Aronimink, I fancy him to hang around.
This is exactly the kind of set-up Day so enjoyed when building such a strong record in majors early on in his career, much of it in the northeast, and he has plenty of Donald Ross form too. He looks value against an erratic Sam Burns, with Gary Woodland's short-game still a weakness that exposed him on Thursday and may continue to do so.
Stephan Jaeger, like Potgieter, holed almost everything he looked at in his 67 but I can't form a strong argument for risking Tom McKibbin against him, as the Northern Irishman doesn't look a great fit for this course on what we've seen. Indeed it might be as simple as sticking with Jaeger as Lucas Glover continues to struggle, but he's already on-side in the specials preview and that will do.
Preference is to stick with NICOLAI HOJGAARD, who beat Rico Hoey and Johnny Keefer and can repeat the trick.
Hojgaard is looking increasingly like a world-class player who is getting comfortable in major championships and after contending for last week's Truist Championship, he was right back on it to shoot one-under.
Hoey had a better short-game day than he often does and still couldn't catch Hojgaard, while Keefer excelled on the greens but managed only 72. Keefer came into the week ranked 152nd of 166 PGA Tour players in strokes-gained putting and can't rely on that club again.
This three-ball was as good as over after a few holes of round one and among the groups not featuring PGA professionals, those which most bookmakers have or will price up, Hojgaard rates the most solid option on the coupon.
Finally, JON RAHM is the call against Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
McIlroy was honest in his self-assessment after a poor round of 74 left him with work to do and whether or not the foot blister he's been nursing caused discomfort, he looked a long way from his best. A repeat of last year's poor PGA following a dream Masters seems on the cards.
Spieth meanwhile had us all dreaming when reaching three-under in his latest grand slam bid but finished poorly and I'd suggest his supreme ball-striking is less likely to carry over than Rahm's. Besides, the Spaniard was even better from tee-to-green in matching his one-under 69.
Rahm defied a slow start with an excellent second round to make the cut in the Masters, just as he did last year. Rewind 12 months and he contended for this and after an improved opener he's a live threat, one we can back at a nice price given the company he keeps.
Posted at 07:00 BST on 15/05/26
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