Brooks Koepka is the favourite to win The Masters after grabbing a share of the first round lead, but the stats suggest he may have a tough time winning a remarkable fourth major in seven starts.
The major stats for The Masters state that you should be there or thereabouts but not necessarily on top of the pile.
The last 13 players to slip on the green jacket have all been in the top 10 after the first round, but only twice in the last 33 years has the winner of the Masters held the lead after day one, so it's a tough prospect leading from the front at Augusta.
Current Masters top 10
- -6 Brooks Koepka, Bryson Dechambeau
- -5 Phil Mickelson
- -4 Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter
- -3 Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Kevin Kisner, Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Usually, then, you should only look at the names above as possible winners of The Masters, but given how bunched the field is this year it could well be the year that streak is broken.
A total of 20 players are within four shots of the lead so there are still plenty in with chances, but it's Koepka who is the new 9/2 tournament favourite after his first round exploits.
It's Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau who lead the way after day one at #TheMasters, but the big names are right on their tails.
— Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) April 12, 2019
📲 Relive the action: https://t.co/t0QifZ6aYq pic.twitter.com/QKkLGUE4g0
Here's how we stand after round one..
Koepka did not play in The Masters last year so a lot has changed since his last appearance at Augusta to say the least, as in that time he's won three of the six majors he's entered to stand as the most dominant player in the big events.
He's strangely attracted criticism for losing weight in the build-up to this event, reportedly in preparation for a magazine photo shoot, but it didn't seem to do him any harm as he maintained his blazing major form with the only bogey-free round of the day at Augusta.
A strange round from DJ as he never looked truly on top of his game but any player would bite your hand off if you offered them three back-nine birdies and signing for a 68 on day one at The Masters. His discomfort was probably down to his playing group as DeChambeau can be frustratingly slow playing at times, while poor old Jason Day needed treatment on his back during the round so that won't have helped the more freewheeling Johnson.
He fascinates some, and frustrates others, but DeChambeau was ultra effective on his third start at Augusta as he came with a flying finish in the closing stages - with birdies on six of his last seven holes firing him to the top of the leaderboard when he appeared to be muddling along at the turn.
He came close to a hole-in-one and chipped in from off the green so a few things went his way but he shows no signs of going away.
He'd be the oldest major winner in history and there's a doubt if he can last the distance, but he loves it around Augusta and birdied five of his last seven including being one of the few players to birdie the 18th.
Surprise and excitement ruled the first round of #themasters, with a glittering array of stars filling the leader board. pic.twitter.com/QjvZJXKWO8
— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 12, 2019
He's finished sixth here once before and believes he has a free hit at this one so could be dangerous with that mentality. He had just one bogey in his round which is a solid starting point and he also topped the greens in regulation stats for the day with 16 out of 18 so that's a great combination going forward.
He's outside the top 10, but only by a single shot, and he carded a first round of 70, which is significant as he won The Masters three times when shooting that number on the opening day. It should have been even better as well as he missed a few short putts so that bodes well for Tiger.
The fiery Spaniard lost his cool a couple of times and that temperament is one of the only real concerns about him winning a major, but he finished fourth last year and that experience could stand him in good stead and he's in that all-important top 10.
Punters are standing by a popular pre-event pick and he battled well when not at his best and carding just one bogey was a cracking result given the circumstances. If he can clean up a few errors off the tee then he'll give himself a few more chances in the second round.
Big names out of contention
Given that players outside the top 15 have about a 12 percent chance of going on to win The Masters, there are a few big names who are already up against it.
+1 Rory McIlroy (22/1) , Sergio Garcia (150/1), Patrick Reed (250/1)
The odds are for illustration purposes only as there's little chance now, even for McIlroy, to get back into it as it'd take a monumental effort to overhaul so many players over the rest of the tournament.
+3 Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth
It was sadly a struggle for world number one Rose, while Spieth had been struggling for a while but had hoped a return to his beloved Augusta would provide a spark in his game. Both players are now in danger of missing the cut at The Masters for the first time.
