Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for ANA Inspiration

Golf betting tips: ANA Inspiration

3pts e.w. Lexi Thompson at 14/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

3pts win Jin Young Ko at 10/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Charley Hull at 55/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Jennifer Kupcho at 70/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The year’s first major championship, the ANA Inspiration, has never lacked for good stories.

In the last 15 years alone Karrie Webb has holed out from 116 yards for a winning eagle-three on the 72nd hole, Brittany Lincicome very nearly bettered Webb by coming up just short of an albatross-two at the same stage, Morgan Pressel and Lydia Ko have both won before their 19th birthday, Pernilla Lindberg triumphed in a play-off that lasted almost as long as the final round (okay, eight holes), IK Kim missed a tiddler for the win before losing in extra holes, and Lexi Thompson thought she was the victim of a belated April Fool’s prank when, midway through a dominant final round performance, the referee told her she’d landed a four-shot penalty.

A little like that last episode, in 2020 it was the turn of the officials to produce controversy, rather than the field generate drama. The crux of the matter? The Dinah Shore Tournament Course at Mission Hills Country Club was briefly home to one of the most infamous walls in history.

Like Berlin’s effort, this man-made barrier behind the 18th green was hastily constructed, divisive and enraged just about everyone. Unlike Berlin, this particular wall was essentially well-meant because, in normal circumstances, there’s a grandstand at the back of the 18th green and someone thought those conditions should be replicated, not with empty bleachers, but with the dodgy barricade. But, as the ever-brilliant Judy Rankin pointed out, "it was way too artificial".

The caddie of this week’s defending champion, Mirim Lee, cheerily admitted that "our play is to hit it into the middle of the green, let it run into the blue thing and get a free drop." As a test, therefore, it wasn’t exactly from the Golden Age of Golf Architecture playbook. Effectively, what has always been a famous island green target was now an enormous baseball mitt. The authorities missed a trick in not appointing the Stasi to referee and not making the players sign their cards at Checkpoint Charlie. It would have caused less fuss.

Happily, the wall has come down. "We won’t be building anything on the island," tournament manager Alyssa Randolph has explained. "We learned from last year. We’ve turned back to the 1972 roots and its purest state as an island green."

If that is one rumpus cleared up, first pick LEXI THOMPSON, will be hoping she can put another to bed this week – the lingering memories of her horror show four years ago.

• Click here to back Lexi Thompson with Sky Bet

The American had been leading by two shots as she made her way into the back nine on Sunday when an official approached her and, in front of the cameras, informed her someone had phoned the referees and dobbed her in. She’d marked her ball incorrectly on the 17th hole the previous day, and was being docked two shots plus another two for signing an incorrect card. Immediately, Twitter debated the incident in calm and measured tones.

No, of course, it didn’t; Golf Twitter absolutely lost its s**t. No less a figure than Tiger Woods joined in, tweeting: "Viewers at home should not be officials wearing stripes. Let’s go Lexi, win this thing anyway." Incredibly, Thompson, despite many tears, fought her way back into the tournament and was eventually only defeated by So Yeon Ryu in extra holes.

A year later she returned and said: "That night was extremely rough. I was screaming, crying. I re-lived it for a while. I had nightmares about it. I still occasionally do. It was rough."

Little wonder she finished 20th on return. But the fact she was haunted that year and still landed a top 20 says much about why she earns a selection this week. She won this event in 2014, has returned every year since and only in 2018 did she not land a top-seven finish. She loves the course and is in no doubt why: "It suits a ball-striker, which major championships should. The setup is perfect for me: I pick driver everywhere, aim up the right side, hit my draw."

In four starts this year she’s landed two second places (including last week) and three times she has averaged hitting four in five greens in regulation – so her ball-striking is not just suited for the test, it’s also bang in-form.

I want to take a two-pronged attack at the head of the market because I just can’t overlook JIN YOUNG KO, the Korean superstar who gave us a wonderful run for our money in December’s US Open. I’m going win only this week because the price is much shorter (it’s still amazing she was 25/1 that week) and she’s also been boom or bust at Missions Hills, winning in 2019 and failing to make the top 60 in her other two starts.

That win saw her top the GIR stats and she’s repeated that in two of her last three starts, most recently when fourth last week in the Kia Classic. Her mind game is so well-suited to the majors, blessed with the ability to put every shot behind her and remain in the moment. It’s helped her land two wins, tied second and third in her last six starts in the big ones. I’m not going to add any more: she’s just exceptionally good at golf and I want her on-side.

• Click here to back Jin Young Ko with Sky Bet

Why these two above others at 20/1 or less? Favourite Inbee Park has an obvious chance. She won last week and is a past champion, but she hasn’t won a major since 2015 which puts me off at the short quote. Price also determines the thoughts on Nelly Korda (who went so close last year but is yet to win a major), Danielle Kang (largely uninspiring course form) and Lydia Ko (hasn’t won for three years) – they can clearly have a good week, but I’m not going to fret about backing them.

I will add two bigger prices, however, and start with the young American and former world amateur number one JENNIFER KUPCHO who I suspect needs a little more course experience to win, but her strong long game can definitely see her contend and hopefully earn a place.

• Click here to back Jennifer Kupcho with Sky Bet

She made her tournament debut last September and recorded excellent numbers with her driving and iron play. It’s a part of her game that has really come to the fore as she’s found her feet at this standard. Indeed, she’s ranked top 10 for greens in regulation in six of her last eight starts.

In that run she has added tied seventh at the KPMG PGA Championship to the tied second she recorded at the 2019 Evian Championship, and also ranked sixth for GIR at the US Women’s Open. Her game looks an excellent fit for a ball-striking major test and, although she missed the cut last week, she was second in the Gainbridge at the start of the month.

Final pick goes to the English equivalent of Lexi Thompson, CHARLEY HULL. The pair of them both played this tournament plenty of times as teenagers, both love its tee-to-green test, and both have racked up plenty of good finishes. Thompson has obviously spent more time in-contention, but the price difference reflects that.

• Click here to back Charley Hull with Sky Bet

That said, Hull knows how to hang around the top 10 on this leaderboard. She didn’t manage it on debut in 2012 (when she’d just turned 16) but in her six visits since she has always slept on a top-10 position at some stage in the week. In 2014 she was tied third, two shots back, after 54 holes; in 2015 and 2017 she got off to solid starts lying tied seventh and tied fourth after 18 holes; in 2016 she was within three blows of the lead all week and finished tied second; in 2018 she was again tied third with 18 holes to play; and in 2019 she was tied fifth at halfway.

The 25-year-old was tied eighth at the Gainbridge event at the start of March and she recovered well from a ropey start last week. Her Thursday 76 had her 100th, but she made swift progress during the rest of the tournament for a respectable 33rd. Now she returns to a happy hunting ground.

"It was my first ever professional tournament and I’ve just loved it ever since,” she said a couple of years ago. "It’s so much fun. A ball-strikers' golf course. A proper golf course."

Posted at 1855 BST on 29/03/21

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