Free golf betting tips & odds: Ben Coley's KLM Open preview & selections

21:13 · WED September 13, 2017

In-form golf expert Ben Coley fancies Julian Suri to secure his second European Tour title via the KLM Open.

Early on in The Usual Suspects, before his arrest, Gabriel Byrne's character Dean Keaton has a proposal for a new restaurant. "It's simple gentlemen, design versatility. A restaurant that can change with taste without losing the overall aesthetic. Our atmosphere won't be painted on the walls."

It was in that spirit that the KLM Open managed to change home, but maintain a familiar feeling in 2016. Kennemer and Hilversumsche are sublime golf courses, but The Dutch - a much more modern take on the old Harry Colt classics - was created with sufficient care to make the transition a seamless one. What could demonstrate that more than a second victory in the event for Joost Luiten?

The home favourite is back to go for title number three and must hold every chance. Granted, it's hardly been a vintage year for a player who should really have Ryder Cup aspirations, with short-game problems undermining his usual consistency elsewhere, but three good rounds in four last week have Luiten primed to go well.

A continuing theme throughout Luiten's career has been contending in the same events year-on-year. He's been in the top seven on his last five visits to Austria's Lyoness Open, and prior to its demise had a similarly superb record in Wales. Here, at home in the Netherlands, he has two wins, a second and two further top-six finishes from a dozen tries.

Luiten has also demonstrated an ability to contend as defending champion. He did so here in 2014 when fifth, and was third defending in Austria - these are the only two events in which he's had the opportunity to go for back-to-back titles. All evidence points towards another stout defence after what was ultimately a convincing success 12 months ago.

But rather than take a best of 18/1 about the most obvious winner, almost twice the price for Julian Suri to go in again looks plenty big enough and the American gets the vote.

Suri has no experience of the course, but that's less of an issue here than it was last week in Switzerland, where he was sixth at halfway only to discover over the weekend that a degree of subtlty is needed to take care of Crans-sur-Sierre.

Prior to that, he'd contended from the wrong side of the draw in the Czech Republic and all of this on the back of a breakthrough European Tour victory in Denmark, in which he went head-to-head with a proven winner on an unfamiliar course and came out much the best.

It's difficult to get a firm grip on Suri's potential, and all too easy to draw comparisons with Brooks Koepka, but what seems clear is that his future is better than almost every player in this field.

In the here and now, his form is the best on offer and every metric going will tell you that. He's only played seven European Tour events outside of The Open and he's contended at some stage in five of them. He leads this field in par-four performance over the last six months and ranks second in birdie average, areas Luiten excelled in en route to victory.

Players like Suri are difficult for any of us to rank, so it boils down to a matter of opinion. I was wrong to think Denmark might be a little too demanding for him, perhaps right to take the same view in Switzerland. Here in the Netherlands, where there is undoubted space off the tee, I believe he has a lot in his favour.

It's not even as if Suri has been all that busy in 2017 - this will be his 17th event, and he already has a pair of victories plus two near-misses and various other examples of being in there pitching at some point.

Clearly a player of fierce ambition, he's one more big week away from making it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship. That would be a remarkable achievement for a player who began the season without a European Tour card.

All things considered, backing arguably the biggest talent in the field while he's in form and on a course where his inexperience should not count against him, Suri looks a great bet at the price.

Last year's leaderboard provided something for everyone, but the key requirement is to strike the ball well. Luiten ranked second in greens, but the fact that this poor chipper led the field in scrambling tells you that when he did miss, it was not by far.

Hitting greens doesn't necessarily require accuracy off the tee here so I'm willing to chance the aggressive Scott Jamieson.

This one-time European Tour winner played really well throughout the first half of the season, securing his card with third in India and topping up the balance sheet with an excellent share of 14th at Wentworth.

Since a similar finish in Ireland, however, Jamieson has gone off the boil - that is until dropping a big hint with a second-round 65 in Switzerland last week.

Clearly, after an opening 77 he was free to go and be aggressive on a course which does offer up opportunities, but there's evidence to suggest it could well trigger a big step up in the Netherlands.

Just last year, Jamieson finished 10th here on the back of a missed cut which saw him improve from a bad start to build some valuable momentum, while his fourth place in the 2012 KLM Open also followed a narrow but fairly promising missed cut in the Alps.

The 33-year-old ranks fifth in this field for birdie average over the past six months and the space afforded from the tee box is a big plus, enough to think he can step up slightly on last year's 20-birdie tie for 10th.

Andy Sullivan has some history in this event and whizzed round Nuneaton in 60 blows last week, but lacks competitive practice having taken time off since a missed cut in the PGA Championship and is plenty short enough at the same price as Suri.

Instead, Richie Ramsay looks the best supplementary bet from towards the head of the market at 33/1.

A proven winner, Ramsay is clearly back in the form required to add to his tally and will have been frustrated not to better 30th place last week, given that he led the field in greens and just couldn't get the putts to drop.

A modern take on an inland links should be right up his street so last year's narrow missed cut here is of no concern, especially given that he arrived in poor form which simply isn't the case this time.

He ranks third in this field for both par-four performance and greens hit since June and is bound to improve for last week, given that it was his first strokeplay start since July.

Ace of Clubs: Richie Ramsay

Back in 2012, Ramsay took a month off, caught the eye at the Johnnie Walker and then won convincingly in Swtizerland, and it was a virtually identical formula for his first win in 2009. He'd played the week before following a six-week break on this occasion and showed the benefits of a pipe-opener to win in South Africa.

His sole subsequent win, in Morocco, also came after an injury absence as he rediscovered his touch on a suitable, links-style course. I just wonder whether this fierce competitor sometimes needs a break to reassess and it at his most dangerous when he's had the opportunity to do that.

Second at Hilversumsche and ninth at Kennemer, Ramsay is really well-suited to the style of golf which is required here at The Dutch and unlike many of those around him in the market, is very close to the top of his game right now.

James Morrison might be a danger at 80/1 given that he clicked in the Czech Republic and backed it up with as good a performance as he tends to produce at Crans, while Mikko Ilonen has stayed on for successive strokeplay top-10s and will be a big threat if able to keep tabs with the leaders early.

In a year of comebacks, don't rule out Johan Edfors given how well he's been striking the ball, and there's a case too for Eduardo De La Riva, second in this event previously and better suited to The Dutch than he has been just about any other venue this summer.

However, I'll finish off with Nino Bertasio, who was on my list last week, and Thomas Detry.

The potential value of second chances has been underlined on these pages recently by Tom Lewis and Chris Paisley, and while Bertasio faded from the top 20 in Switzerland the bottom line is it was another step in the right direction.

He certainly hit the ball well once more and there's no reason he can't improve now returned to the venue which saw him contend throughout last year, before a disappointing final-round 77 from the final group.

Bertasio had been second after rounds one, two and three, hitting the front on Saturday before Scott Hend passed him late on, and from a statistical perspective there were no weaknesses to his play. He led the all-around thanks to quality driving, iron play and putting, until things went array under pressure.

It won't have helped having a moody and wayward Hend alongside him that day as well as a nervous Richard Bland in a really quiet final group, with all the locals following a charging Luiten up ahead, so I can give Bertasio another chance at a three-figure price.

"I just love the golf course," he said, and having been fifth for greens hit last week arrives in the sort of shape required to go well again.

Nino Bertasio

Detry meanwhile has drifted out to a tempting price on the back of a couple of poor weeks, but missing the cut with 70-71 in Crans is just not a negative at all in my book, while he was hurt by the draw when 54th in the Czech Republic.

Prior to that he'd looked a winner in waiting both in Germany and Denmark, as he had when runner-up earlier in the season, again in Germany, and he can return to form here in an event won by his close friend and compatriot Thomas Pieters two years ago.

As well as being from neighbouring Belgium, Detry actually made his first European Tour start in the KLM Open way back in 2009. He performed admirably as a 16-year-old who was invited following victory in the Dutch Junior Open, played just 40km south of this week's venue, recovering from a bad start to shoot 70 in round two.

Granted, he missed the cut at The Dutch last year but that was his first start since a breathtaking Challenge Tour romp and perhaps things were all happening a bit too quickly. I certainly wouldn't be in a rush to draw conclusions based on two fairly solid rounds at a transitional time.

Of the course, he said: "It’s great, I think it seems like an American style golf course. There’s some very good bunkering and the greens are amazing, with a lot of run outs here and there. I love the course and it fits my eye."

Educated in America where he was a brilliant amateur, Detry can take advantage of this modern layout thanks to some of the best ball-striking around. He's certainly worth chancing at the odds.