Hong Kong Open free betting tips from Ben Coley
Golf expert Ben Coley has six selections as he takes on the favourites in the UBS Hong Kong Open.
If it seems like only yesterday that Tommy Fleetwood scraped to the Race To Dubai title as Jon Rahm rubber-stamped his own superb campaign with victory in the DP World Tour Championship, that's because it literally was yesterday. The European Tour is dead, long live the European Tour! Something like that, anyway.
Yes, we're off to Hong Kong to start the 2018 campaign still five weeks shy of Christmas and some of the key players from the previous act are along for the ride. Sponsors UBS will be delighted, I'm sure, to welcome Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and many more of the stars of 2017 to Fanling, the old-fashioned home of this new age golf tournament, all multi-tour and anti-calendar.
A par 70 born out of colonialism, the golf course is an archaic, claustrophobic delight and, crucially, nothing like what you might've seen in Dubai last week. Every narrow, firm fairway is overshadowed by trees; simply reaching for driver and giving it a whirl just won't do. Big hitters have prospered here, such as Scott Hend in 2014 and of course Rose, but in doing so they accepted the challenge for what it is knowing that all-out-attack tends to run up some ugly numbers.
The strength at the head of the betting might on any other week undermine this tournament as a punting vehicle, but there's more than half a chance that none of the aforementioned players is able to raise a gallop. Rose and Fleetwood in particular must be mentally shattered and while Garcia could take care of weak-ish field as he did at Valderrama last month, he's fiddling with new gear and has already ticked the boxes for 2017.
When Rose won here, the end of the European Tour season was still weeks away while last year, it was three weeks behind. Never before has Hong Kong sat immediately after the season-ending DP World Tour Championship and while there's some evidence that a high-profile player can get straight back to work, this is very different to Charl Schwartzel doing laps around the field at Leopard Creek. The top eight in the market, completed by Matt Fitzpatrick, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Dylan Frittelli and Julian Suri, have to be taken on.
As you'd expect, a course like Fanling tends to favour a certain type of player and leaderboards often mirror those produced at Crans-sur-Sierre, home of the European Masters. Hend has lost play-offs there the last two years while Miguel Angel Jimenez, four times a winner at Fanling, also thrives in the Swiss Alps. The challenge at both courses is so very similar: keep it in play, hit small greens and get away with par when you fail to do so.
These are skills which do still exist among young, aggressive players, but are more commonly found among those who've been doing the rounds for some time. Most winners of this event were 30- or 40-something and it's perhaps not a great place for your up-and-coming Qualifying School or Challenge Tour graduate to display their skills, although in Aaron Rai there's a tempting 66/1 shot who did so at Valderrama and bases a highly promising game on accuracy.
David Lipsky is in actual fact a few months short of his 30th birthday, but he's honed his game across Asia and Europe for many years now and has what it takes to secure his second European Tour title this week.
The first came in Switzerland at the aforementioned Crans and it's no surprise that Lipsky prefers a tighter, trickier challenge to those often presented.
"I love it here," he said last December. "This is one of my favourite courses we play all year. To come out here and play well, I'm pretty pleased with how everything went."
Asked to elaborate, he added: "Just the conditions of the course, firm and fast. You have to really control your ball around here. It's not a bomber's course by any means, so that sort of suits me. But I love it."
Those comments came as Lipsky worked his way to fifth place, just a couple of shots off Sam Brazel's winning total after a frustrating Sunday in which, rarely for him, the American just couldn't get the ball in the hole.
He returns at what appears to be a good time, a third-round 64 in Dubai last week enough to inspire confidence, without ever getting him close enough to be expending serious mental energy in the battle for the title on Sunday.
"I've been hitting it great the last few weeks and so to finally put it all together and hole a few putts was really special," he said on Saturday night, having felt good in his previous starts, and with a course record of 12-61-64-5 there's every indication he could shake-up the big guns.
Lipsky finished fifth and 24th in the two events held in China during the spring, further underlining his comfort levels in the Far East (his mother is Korean), and he looks a knocking each-way bet at 66/1 generally.
Spaniards have taken six of the 14 titles here - granted, largely thanks to Jimenez - and I did wonder whether Jorge Campillo might upstage Cabrera Bello and add his name to the roll of honour.
Not yet a winner at this level, Campillo has gone close on a number of occasions and each of his best efforts points to this being the sort of test which represents a genuine opportunity. For instance, last spring he was third in the Maybank Championship Malaysia behind the straight-shooting HK specialist Marcus Fraser, while his top-five in India at the Avantha Masters saw him finish just ahead of Fraser and former Fanling champion Jose Manuel Lara.
It's no surprise, then, that Campillo has finished 24th and 10th in two starts here, showcasing his all-round talents in the process, and he's been ticking over quite nicely of late without getting into contention.
That said, he's so rarely in contention to win that I prefer to take a chance on Jeunghun Wang, a proven performer at this level.
The youngster from Korea looked to have the world at his feet back at the start of the year, as he added the prestigious Qatar Masters title to a couple of lower-level European Tour wins in 2016, both of which came in Africa.
Things went a little quiet thereafter, but since the PGA Championship he's ticked over really nicely with last week's 28th place in the DP World Tour Championship a particularly encouraging effort, given that he struck the ball with real authority and finished with his best round of the week.
Wang doesn't have a particularly good record at Fanling but has only played the event three times, and there was enough to like about a debut 35th given where he was at the time in terms of standing, plus the fact he got off to a bad start and simply made a few too many mistakes - 17 birdies really should've been enough for a top-10 finish.
Now a completely different animal, who looked to be in total control of his ball last week and should be plenty fresh enough having missed many a weekend this summer, Wang could be peaking at the right time. Certainly, three-figure prices look worth the risk.
At a similar price, Ashun Wu is another proven winner who really should take to Fanling in what's his first competitive start at the course.
The Chinese is an excellent iron player whose two European Tour wins have come in nine- and 13-under, demonstrating that this sort of challenge should suit him down to the ground.
During a hot run in late-summer he finished just outside the places in Switzerland, having at one point on Sunday looked like he might win the title on what was his first start at Crans, so there's more than one reason to believe he'll thrive at Fanling.
His form nosedived after another top-10 finish in Portugal, but after hitting it well for little reward at Valderrama he again showcased his long game with a top-20 finish in the high-class WGC-HSBC Champions, further evidence that he can cope with the pressure of playing on home soil.
Also a winner of the China Open under firm, fast conditions, Wu is well worth chancing despite his lack of course experience.
Although I as good as ruled out young Q-School graduates earlier in this preview, I can't resist chancing Jazz Janewattananond after a sensational effort to secure his European Tour card.
This young Thai chipped in at the final hole of the six-round slog at Lumine to continue a fine year, which started with no status whatsoever but now shows playing rights on a major golf tour plus his first two wins as a professional.
#ETQSchool recap number 1⃣
— European Tour Q-School (@ETQSchool) November 17, 2017
A magic moment from @jazzjanegolf who chipped in for eagle at 18 to get a European Tour card on the mark pic.twitter.com/fgOPaTZ1cq
Clearly, then, he should be riding the crest of a wave at Fanling, where he's produced solid if unspectacular form figures of 42-24-60, each time offering something to work with.
Never has he arrived so sure of himself and having finished third prior to Q School in the Indonesia Open, Janewattananond is worth chancing as he bids to spark further celebrations on Sunday, his 22nd birthday.
Winner of that Asian Tour event was Panuphol Pittayarat, another for the lengthy shortlist.
He finished T9 in Malaysia earlier this year, on a golf course with some similarities to Fanling (Lipsky second), and has since won a couple of titles to kick start his career - just like Jazz.
The first of them came back in April, just days after his girlfriend had been killed in a tragic accident, so it's no wonder Pittayarat dipped a little before gaining the biggest victory of his life just a few weeks ago where he striped it throughout.
He has plenty of experience here at Fanling, bagging a couple of top-30 finishes and shooting rounds of 65 and 66, so watch for the 24-year-old if he can put behind him a poor effort at Qualifying School last time. That's just enough of a doubt to look past him for me, however.
Once upon a time my staking plan for this event would've been dominated by European Tour regulars, who hold a class and experience edge, but that gap is closing and plenty of those without full status can be expected to challenge.
However, Alexander Bjork is well worth a bet to cap a fine year with his first win at this level.
The 27-year-old did win on the Challenge Tour last summer as he edged out Rai in an event dominated by ball-strikers, and since beginning his rookie campaign with a top-20 finish in South Africa has emerged as a consistent threat.
His best effort was of course third place in the Open de France, but what really stands out is his excellent share of 16th on debut at Crans, where he'd have finished fifth but for dropping three shots in the closing three holes, having also started the final round inside the top five.
Throw in a fine effort at Wentworth (T14) and in China at the Shenzhen International (T14) and there's every hope that Bjork can better his share of 45th here last year, when cutting his teeth on the European Tour.
Certainly, his short game looks made for Fanling and if he can drive it as accurately as he has lately (ninth in Dubai, 15th at the Nedbank), there should be plenty of opportunities for his iron play - described as aggressive and a major strength by Matthew Southgate during his commentary stint last week - to shine.
No apologies for attacking this event with a team of six at the prices, which is completed by Wade Ormsby.
We've seen two Australian winners here in the last three years and that makes some sense, given that so many of them grew up tackling firm, fast conditions on what are often old-fashioned golf courses Down Under.
Ormsby certainly prefers this type of challenge, as he explained on his way to eighth place here in 2013.
"Yeah, it's nice to play these types of courses," he said. "I fancy myself a bit more around these types of places, if you like."
Last time out he stayed on for fifth at Valderrama, underlining yet again what sort of player he is, and his record at Fanling is very solid. In five starts this decade he's made five cuts, with just one disaster round, while he's sat inside the top five at halfway on two occasions.
With three top-six finishes on the European Tour since the start of August, Ormsby's game is in good nick and there's probably no player in this field who is more precise from the tee box.
Given that his short game was particularly sharp last time, everything is in place for another big week.
Recommended bets: Hong Kong Open
1pt e.w. Ashun Wu at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - strong iron play should see him take to Fanling
Posted at 1815 GMT on 20/11/17.
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