Honda Classic in-play betting preview

Honda Classic recommended bets:

No bet

It's one of those Sundays which makes you wonder why the world doesn't actually revolve around golf.

Rise and shine to a tense, nervy conclusion to the Qatar Masters, raise a glass to a popular winner over lunch, do some more responsibly adult things for a little while and then settle in for the final round of the Honda Classic.

The stage at PGA National is perfectly set - if your idea of perfection is Tiger Woods being close enough to make a run, but not so close as to demand an early indication of how the latest incarnation of his game stacks up under pressure.

Woods is tied for 11th, seven back, and could've been so much closer. Saturday's round was an exhibition of quality iron play but, while he putted well above the field average, a red-hot day on the greens and he might well have been in one of the final couple of groups.

Instead, he's still as big as 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3) to steal a place on the podium and I wouldn't put it past him. Woods carded a final-round 62 here in 2012, finishing second to Rory McIlroy having been 18th starting the day, and once more has improved throughout the week to this point.

At the top of the leaderboard is last week's fancy, Luke List, who has played 51 of the 54 holes this week in par or better.

With just 10 players currently under-par, that's a remarkable effort and 4/1 is a fair price for any leader of his latent ability. List has never held an outright 54-hole lead but has shared it on three occasions, winning the first, blowing the second and just coming up short in the third. This is a new test but he's been the best player for much of this tournament and should not be underestimated.

Justin Thomas quite rightly heads the market at 2/1 after a back-nine 31 rewarded his patience and represented the significant move of the week so far.

The reigning FedEx Cup champion is tied for second with Webb Simpson and, like List, has been largely error-free. Only a poor putting round on Friday - which included three putts from five feet - has kept him from the lead.

Latest leaderboard

-7 Luke List

-6 Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson

-5 Tommy Fleetwood, Jamie Lovemark

Still, I wouldn't be so keen to get stuck into a player even of his calibre in this event, one in which the title truly isn't won until the 72nd hole. One bad swing at the wrong time and that's that; even with forecast calmer conditions appearing to suit, if you didn't back Thomas before Thursday there's no real reason to do so now.

Webb Simpson looks a better bet at three-times the price on the same score, especially given this event's tendency to go to a major champion. Simpson toughed it out to win the 2012 US Open and hasn't putted this well for a long time, so on the back of a bogey-free Saturday and playing in the penultimate group looks a fair price.

Simpson tees it up with Tommy Fleetwood, who just keeps on improving and hit the shot of his life to set up eagle late last night. He's played consistently well throughout the tournament, taking more chances with each passing day, and is absolutely ready to win.

Jamie Lovemark by contrast looks fairly easy to oppose having relied on his short-game all week and of more interest would be Alex Noren, 10/1 to overturn a three-shot deficit having matched Fleetwood's closing eagle, but hand on heart I think the market looks near enough spot on. Narrow preference at the prices would be for Simpson, but Thomas is the most likely winner and much as I don't want to back him, I'm in no rush to oppose, either.

Pre-tournament selection Louis Oosthuizen gives us an each-way interest at two-under, five back, and isn't out of it yet. He was sublime off the tee yesterday but for one drive which cost him a shot and could yet launch a challenge, as he did in Phoenix a year ago when, six back overnight, he missed out by one.

Oosthuizen rates a strong fancy to beat Kelly Kraft in their two-ball - BetVictor's 4/5 is a very good price - while those seeking a spot of value might consider upwards of 2/1 about Tom Lovelady outscoring Adam Scott.

Lovelady dropped eight shots in four holes on Friday and has done remarkably well to climb the leaderboard since, shooting one of two bogey-free third rounds, and has his ball under control.

This big-hitter wouldn't appear ideally suited to PGA National but for whatever reason this is a power-packed leaderboard and while Scott's third round was a big step in the right direction, I'm not convinced he's reliable enough to be deserving of 4/7 favouritism right now.

Posted at 1305 GMT on 25/02/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet's Honda Classic odds