Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the Valspar Championship
Martin Mathews previews the Sunday action at the Valspar Championshi, with Max Homa poised to strike from just one shot back.
Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship final round
2pts win Max Homa in Valspar Championship at 5/2 (General)
2pts Wyndham Clark to beat Denny McCarthy in two-ball (4.40pm) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
The venomous closing three holes of the Copperhead Course, known as the Snakepit, has proven to be pivotal in the outcome of the Valspar Championship time and again over the years and it may well be that come this evening we are looking back at the last hour or so of Saturday’s play as the turning point of the event.
For much of the third round Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley, who had started the day on 12-under and four shots clear of the field, traded blows while maintaining their buffer over the chasing pack, and it looked like we might head into the final round with a matchplay situation between the pair.
A wayward drive on 16, however, led to a bogey from Burns and after his approach to 18 found a plugged lie in the sand he did very well to limit the damage to just another bogey on the closing hole.
Bradley, meanwhile, also faltered on 18 to close with a bogey and with MAX HOMA rolling one in from over 30ft in the group in front on the same hole, Burns and Bradley now find themselves tied on 14-under going into Sunday, just the one clear of Homa and only four in front of the pack.
While he sits a shot behind, it's clear that the momentum heading in to Sunday is with Homa - certainly when it comes to the leading trio.
A winner this season already at the Genesis Invitational, where he took down non other than 54-hole leader Burns, he has the least pressure on him here and it may well be that playing in the second-to-last group ahead of the two leaders he can post a number which the last pair can’t match.
Homa has been doing everything very well this week, ranking fourth in approach play and fifth both from tee to green and in putting, and I am happy to side with him here to join Bryson Dechambeau and Stewart Cink as the third multiple winner on tour this season.
Returning to Burns and Bradley, while I put up the latter in my pre-tournament preview, both of this pair were put forward by Ben Coley in his pre-event outright selections and for those who took his advice there is certainly an added logic in covering Homa today, while hoping that one of the front two can finish the job.
Both of course have played superbly this week, hence they find themselves in this position, but I do have concerns with them both.
Burns relied heavily on his putter over the opening two days, taking 23 and 22 putts on Thursday and Friday, and as we have seen on many occasions it's hard to keep up this sort of performance on the greens for all four days.
Bogey-free on Friday, he started like a train again on Saturday but after birdieing the fifth hole things dried up for him the rest of the way and after the two bogeys in the last three holes he could well be starting to get a feeling of déjà vu.
This will be the third time Burns has held the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour as he did so in Houston last November as well as at Riviera this year, and on both occasions he struggled. There is no doubt a maiden PGA Tour win for the 24-year-old is coming sooner rather than later, but my suspicion is that when it does it may well be from off the pace on a Sunday.
A former PGA Champion, Bradley is proven at the highest level. His long game has been exemplary this week and he leads the field both in strokes-gained-tee-to-green and strokes-gained-approach-to-the-green over the first three rounds.
As is the case with all great ball strikers, particularly when they are flushing it as well as Bradley is this week, it is all about the putter and on this front the signs were ominous on Saturday.
Over the first two days the flat stick behaved for the 34-year-old, but on Saturday his Achilles heel flared up as he missed short birdie putts on 11 and 12 and a short par putt on 13, and it was only really a timely chip in for eagle on the par-five 14th that smartened up his card.
Assuming Bradley’s long game doesn’t suddenly desert him, he will no doubt give himself plenty of looks again today, but I'm concerned he won’t quite hole enough to get the job done.
In an event that has seen two of the last four winners come from five back on Sunday, it would be foolish to dismiss the chances of Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Tringale and Ted Potter Jnr, who start the day four back on 10-under and the in-form Charley Hoffman who sits on 9-under also can’t be dismissed.
Potter Jnr, who shot 63 on Saturday, showed what is possible but all of the best scores have come from earlier tee times this week and with my feeling that at least one of the front three will get to 16 or 17-under, it becomes a big ask for the chasing pack, particularly as the wind is forecast to gust at 15mph or so later in the day.
Looking at the final-round two-balls and the one to catch my eye tee’s off at 16.40pm UK time and features WYNDHAM CLARK and Denny McCarthy, and it’s Clark that appeals to me at the odds.
To be honest there is not much to choose between the pair although in my eyes Clark has the bigger long-term potential.
This week of the two he has certainly been the steadier player with only one blemish on his scorecard over the last two days, while McCarthy made five bogeys on Saturday which were offset by seven birdies and - in typical McCarthy style - a scorching putter.
The layers have made McCarthy a clear favourite, I assume based on his better form coming in. However, Clark has shown on several occasions since being on tour that he can post a strong finish out of the blue, and I am happy to risk him at the 11/8 on offer.
Posted at 0930 BST on 02/05/21
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