Ian Richards assesses the state of play in the Cyprus Open, which remains wide-open with 18 holes to play.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Garrick Higgo at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
2pts Garrick Higgo to win his three-ball at 13/8
The inaugural Cyprus Open was always going to be a difficult puzzle to solve even before they teed off on Thursday with no course form and no real clue how it is was going to play. Heading into the final round to be honest it’s still totally wide open and any one of the top 15 players has a chance of lifting the trophy. I say those players as I really think anyone on 10-under or worse simply has too much traffic to overcome.
Followers of Ben Coley's Monday column will be pleased to see a trio of his selections in contention going into the final round with Matthias Schwab (28/1), Sami Valimaki (40/1) and Shubankar Sharma (100/1) all within three. Of those three Valimaki surely has the best chance to add a second European Tour victory to the one he grabbed in Oman earlier this year. In a way therein lies the conundrum, as so few of those in contention have ever won or at least done so recently.
The fact that it is 6/1 the field and still four places available on each-way bets is further indication of how tight it is at the top. Vying for favouritism, beside Valimaki, we have 45-year-old Jamie Donaldson who holds a slender one-shot lead. The fact that he isn’t outright favourite is testament to the fact that despite having three Tour wins, none have come in the last six years. One shot behind is Thomas Detry who is still looking for his first victory in 100 starts and it would take a leap of faith to back him at 6/1 to finally cross the winning line.
In the five-way tie for second sits David Drysdale and there wouldn’t be a dry eye in the house if he was to prevail on his 509th attempt but despite that sentiment he isn’t worth backing at what for him is a very short price. Marcus Armitage is there as well and again he would be a fantastic winner purely because of his wonderful attitude to the game and how he got to the top echelons.
I could rattle on about all those in contention but I would rather concentrate on a young player who is going places and for those old enough to remember the Clive Holt racing book 'Winners Back Winners', you will know where I am coming from.
GARRICK HIGGO, the 21-year-old South African has already won twice this year, at home in the South African Tour Championship and then six weeks ago at the co-sanctioned Portugal Open. At such a young age he is a fearless competitor, with no scar tissue and has already shown he is not afraid to win.
On that Sunday in Portugal he fired a bogey-free final round 65 which is probably exactly what will be required here from two back of the leader. I have no doubt it will be a dramatic finish with many twists and turns, with most of the dangerous holes coming late on before a reachable par-five over water, but at 14/1 with four places he rates the best value.
Frustratingly because the course takes such a long time to get round and with daylight hours an issue they are out in three-balls again. It’s always easy to find a player to oppose or support but not so easy to find one to beat two opponents.
That said I want to be against Jeff Winther, as twice already this year he has fired third round 65s and each time he fell away in the final round with scores of 72 and 79 in Qatar and Dubai respectively. He is pitched in with Higgo and Robert MacIntyre and I am happy to side with my outright selection once more, as MacIntyre has flattered to deceive plenty this year and looks a little unreliable at the moment.
If you hunt around you may well find a mythical 18-hole matchup to oppose Winther with, sadly the only one I have seen is where he is up against Callum Shinkwin and it’s fair to say that would be a bet fraught with danger given Shinkwin's own struggles in the final round.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 31/10/20
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