Ben Coley's golf betting tips: HotelPlanner Tour Grand Final preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Grand Final

3pts win Pablo Ereno at 15/1 (bet365 - general 14/1)

1.5pts e.w. Julien Brun at 28/1 (Star Sports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 - general 25/1)

1pt e.w. Chris Wood at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

0.5pt e.w. Frederik Kjettrup at 125/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

They used to say that the Championship play-off was the richest game in football, such were the rewards of winning it, and if there is an equivalent tournament in golf then it just might be the HotelPlanner Tour Grand Final, where 45 becomes 15 over four days in Mallorca.

Fifteen – the number of members who will graduate at the end of it – is down from 20 and, with fewer DP World Tour cards on offer across the board and an influx of LIV players expected, seldom has status been so significant and so hard to attain. Yes, next week's Q-School final will feature many more players and that same sense of existential dread, but don't underestimate what's at stake here.

That is aptly demonstrated by last year's one-two: James Morrison was set to retire altogether, while Stefano Mazzoli is now a PGA Tour champion. Before them, Kristoffer Reitan needed to win to earn his card and not only did so, but used it as a catalyst for two wins on the DP World Tour and then a PGA Tour Signature Event. A year earlier, the champion was Marco Penge, a three-time DP World Tour winner since.

It's the likes of Penge and Reitan and some of those who gave pursuit who offer the best insight into what's required by Alcanda, an exposed course by the sea, at least when it's calm.

Evidently, Morrison's precision and short-game went a long way but in a greener, softer renewal won by Reitan at the expense of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Angel Ayora, power played a big part. The same was true of Penge's romp and one caddie put it to me that this course is 'all about bombing it and holing putts'.

How true that is this time remains to be seen but had the forecast been for weather like that of 2024, the same sort of profile would've been readily preferred.

However, there is now wind expected to arrive in time for the weekend, splitting this tournament in two: make a score while you can, then cling on. It should make for a fascinating renewal and Sky Sports will be there to broadcast it live (on which, it's a pity they don't then head to Catalunya for Q-School).

It is worth noting that while Morrison is a very different player to Reitan, he almost matched the Norwegian in the way he built his victory on the five scoring holes: 1, 7, 11, 13 and 15. Reitan played them in an eye-watering 23-under, his winning score; with conditions tougher, Morrison played them in 14-under and was just one-under for the rest of the course.

CHRIS WOOD was second in par-five scoring last time out and if he can again capitalise on the cheap birdie opportunities, he might just be able to pull this off.

The former Ryder Cup player had fallen almost to the bottom of the professional ranks as the 10-year anniversary of his career-high BMW PGA win approached, and had to go to the rejuvenated MENA Tour in order to rebuild.

Topping the order of merit there earned him status on the HotelPlanner Tour where, spectacularly, he made it pay immediately by winning the Italian Challenge. Seven top-30s have followed and he now heads to Mallorca at 37th in the standings, but with just 15 cards on offer that means he'll need to go very close to winning if he's to complete the fairy tale.

Conditions may help him to do that. This is a player whose breakthrough came in Doha, at a golf course where Open champions often thrive; indeed, Wood bagged two Open top-fives at the very start of his career and was close to winning the Claret Jug at Turnberry. He's also been second in Sicily and when the Mallorca Open used to feature on the DP World Tour, he finished second and fifth from just two attempts.

Island golf in a good breeze is therefore just about ideal for a player whose comeback gathered pace when he won by the coast in Egypt and Morocco at the beginning of 2026, and I can see him absolutely relishing not just the course and conditions, but the opportunity.

This is a player whose career was all but over this time last year and he must surely look to Morrison, one of three English winners in four at Alcanada, for inspiration. And it's not just these intangibles which make him interesting: like Morrison a year ago, finishes of 19-22 in China looked like being better still, as he was in the mix at halfway in each of them.

We don't always know it at the time but one more thing winners of the Grand Final have in common is class: two of the last four have gone on to reach the PGA Tour, Nathan Kimsey is a rock-solid DP World Tour player, and Morrison had already won at that level in Portugal and Spain.

Wood has shown this year that class has never left him and, at 40/1 with the Flutter firms, he rates a fine bet.

As with Wood, I don't know as JULIEN BRUN would've featured had the forecast been for a calmer, rain-softened renewal, as driver has never been his strength.

However, this formerly top-class amateur prospect can be exceptional from the second shot in and showed it on the big tour before injury intervened in 2024. The previous year he'd made it all the way to Dubai and having been runner-up in the 2021 Grand Final on his way to fourth in the Road to Mallorca, his rookie season on the DP World Tour ended with a commendable 80th place in the season-long standings.

It's taken the Frenchman a while to work his way back to form and he only scraped into this with a storming finish for fifth place last time, that on the back of 14th in the first of two events in China. Now, suddenly, he knows that he'll be back on the DP World Tour next season if he can win this week, something which he's capable of.

Though Brun hasn't played here before, he's gone 12-2 in his Grand Final appearances at T-Golf in Mallorca. He's also been third by the coast in Mauritius, won at Emporda Links and, like Morrison, also won at Pleneuf. But it's perhaps his form (11-10) at Royal Obidos I like most, as that course in Portugal is similar to this one. Penge won there and the likes of Mazzoli, Kimsey and Morrison also enjoy it.

Hopefully, Brun can approach this as a free hit and he certainly seems to have been feeling good about his game for a while, first bemoaning his putting, then sharing his delight at having pulled off the first part of mission impossible last time. His form in the mix in Dubai and Abu Dhabi further underlines that a decent breeze may help rather than hinder, and I like his chances.

Returning to that somewhat reductive assessment that long drives and holed putts is the formula here, MJ Daffue certainly has the former covered but perhaps not the latter. The South African does though have some strong DP World Tour form to his name, including when selected on these pages at a big price for the Dunhill Links recently, and has done well to earn promotion from just 17 starts at this level.

He's got to be respected along with Dominic Foos, another powerhouse, while Tapio Pulkkanen and FREDERIK KJETTRUP both made the shortlist for very different reasons.

Pulkkanen is bidding to become the first player to win the Road to Mallorca twice and has a couple of close calls in Spain to his name plus a strong Dunhill Links record, albeit he played poorly on his sole try here. That was also the case on his only other Grand Final appearance and after a backward step last time out I'm quite happy to overlook him at 20/1.

Kjettrup has four professional wins in fewer than 50 starts and along with Foos has done well to get this far on so few appearances. Kjettrup has played just 13 times, from which he has a win and runner-up finish, the latter at Pleneuf. And while he'd missed the cut in all nine of his other starts prior to China, he made both there and offered some hints of promise.

Born in Denmark and having been to college in Florida, I'd hope that breezy conditions in Spain could suit him, and as a 125/1 shot in a field of 45 he's just too big a price to turn down. That's only a fraction shorter than he was last time out when outplaying several of these and taking on a bigger, deeper field. Plus, he had limited experience of the Far East, whereas he played plenty of golf in continental Europe as an amateur, including in Spain.

He's a genuine shot in the dark, make no mistake, but in a field like this and given his high-class amateur pedigree, he feels more like a 66/1 shot.

Finally, I'll side with PABLO ERENO, one of just a small number of potential stars among this crop.

Two years ago, Angel Ayora very nearly won this title as a 16/1 chance and that was in a much stronger field. He began that week sixth in the standings, sure of his DP World Tour card, so there are obvious parallels with fourth-ranked Ereno.

Ereno won the Challenge de Catalunya back in May to show a likeable aptitude for raising his game on home soil, underlined by seventh place on his sole subsequent start in Spain. He then showed what he can do in a stiff breeze when an excellent 14th in the KLM Open and was third soon after at Pleneuf.

An autumn lull threw up some disappointing results but he was right back at it on his first trip to China, finishing eighth and 15th and never leaving the top 20 in either event, and I can see him ending this fine rookie campaign as the number one on the Road to Mallorca standings.

Note that top-fives at Royal Cape and Durban both came close to the sea, while he was an emphatic winner of a big Spanish amateur title on Gran Canaria once. This from a player who first came to attention when 27th on his DP World Tour debut in Aberdeen, so there have been loads of hints that he'll love conditions.

With his form coming nicely to the boil and those doubts over Daffue's putter persisting, Ereno looks the one they all have to beat. No Spaniard has won the Grand Final since it came to Mallorca, but they're 10 from 28 in other home HotelPlanner Tour events since 2010 and in Ereno have a prime candidate to get one on the board at Alcanada.

Posted at 14:30 BST on 26/10/25

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