Our golf team have found 10/1 and 5/1 winners across the first two days of the BMW PGA Championship. Here's Ben Coley's take on round three.
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA round three
2pts Ayora and Hovland to win their two-balls at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
For much of the second round of the BMW PGA Championship it seemed certain that the leaderboard would reflect a notable draw bias, with late-early very much where you wanted to be.
But one of the many qualities of Wentworth is the rhythm of the golf course and that sense that something can always be salvaged late on, and it was demonstrated when Ryan Gerard finished eagle-birdie to move into a two-stroke lead over Adam Scott and Filippo Celli.
Gerard is 9/4 to go on and win just the second professional title of his career and by far the biggest, and were he to do so he'd be the latest in a long line of defiant champions who found the perfect response to being overlooked by a Presidents or Ryder Cup captain.
A fabulous ball-striker who does things his own way, Gerard has so far made just one bogey over his first 36 holes. He's finding fairways and greens, scrambling well when he does miss one, and seems to be on one of his good putting weeks – this is a player who can go from one extreme to another with that club.
He's firmly the man to beat but it's a long way home and for all his qualities, Gerard has so far won one title and that under modified stableford scoring. This is a whole new kettle of fish and while many of the big names have faltered, there are five major champions inside the top 10, each of them capable of being the one left standing come Sunday.
Our hopes are pinned to Rory McIlroy, four behind having played beautifully on Friday. There's a sense of frustration that he drove the ball so poorly on Thursday and that the putts have dried up since, but there's also a positive view: McIlroy is in the mix having yet to hit anything like top gear. If he finds it during round three, he's likely to enter round four with a big chance.
"He [Patrick Reed] is a great competitor; he has played great all year. I respect him for how he has went about it, coming through here [DP World Tour]. He has put his head down and done the work; it's been really good to see.
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 18, 2026
"Unfortunately, he has pulled out this week, which… pic.twitter.com/s94aiZdGb8
Narrowing a four-shot gap is the task for now, ideally cutting in half if not something a little better, and I'm hopeful McIlroy can do it. Conditions are in his favour and much may depend on getting the putter warmed up again, having missed several chances and one key par putt during the back-nine of round two.
McIlroy, Ryan Fox and Aaron Rai all played together on the wrong side of the draw whereas JJ Spaun and Adam Scott had the best of it. Spaun was strongly mentioned in Monday's preview and perhaps one or two readers took big exchange prices. Scott, who is seeking his first title in six and a half years and with it a return to the world's top 50, came here in good form and with a solid course record.
My order of preference would be similar to what it was earlier in the week, with McIlroy preferred at the prices to Spaun and Rai, but one way or another I'll be surprised if the champion isn't one of these six.
We've had two good days of three-ball betting with all five selections having landed and in the hope that continues into the two-balls, there's one angle in particular which is worth pursuing. Seven matches feature players who were on opposite sides of the draw, meaning one was at an advantage of roughly two shots.
The seven players whose performances can be upgraded relative to those of their opponents are Rai, ANGEL AYORA, VIKTOR HOVLAND, Ross Fisher, Adrian Meronk, David Puig and Junghwan Lee, and two stand out above the rest.
I'm wary of trying to split Rai and Spaun, Meronk is up against a player with some good course form and the Pole has been leaning heavily on his putter, Puig may well beat Romain Langasque but the latter is a player who feels good about his game at the moment, Lee faces a promising youngster who is a better golfer than he is, and Fisher has putted better than anyone could've expected.
That leaves Ayora and Hovland and they're a nice double at 6/4 and bigger. Note, BOYLE Sports offer a fraction over 13/8, but Sky Bet and Paddy Power's 6/4 comes with the insurance of void selections in the event of a tie.
Ayora can hopefully take care of Marcus Helligkilde, having missed a couple of late chances to move ahead of the Dane despite having faced the tougher conditions, something backed up not just by the numbers but by McIlroy's comments after his round.
Ayora was on my list pre-tournament and while he hasn't always had his best long-game to this point, rounds of 70-68 confirm this is a good course and that these are good conditions for him. Softer greens certainly have helped and I am hopeful he can press on into double-figures and threaten to land a nice bit of place money.
Helligkilde has done well since returning from injury but the Dane has relied quite heavily on his short-game, ranking third around the greens, and his iron play remains suspect. He was actually in the mix on his last start here but faded badly on Sunday, and I can see those struggles arriving earlier this time.
He stumbled at the end of round two and Ayora looks a solid favourite, as does Hovland against Frederic Lacroix.
Hovland struggled in the worst of the weather midway through round two, but three birdies over the final seven holes moved him back towards the top 10 at a course which he's very well suited to. He has admittedly ridden a hot putter but while Hovland's ball-striking of late has been hit and miss, he's shown flashes of his very best at times.
Lacroix has hit the ball well holed little, but that's not uncommon for a player with a modest course record and persistent issues on the greens. Given that he again enjoyed much better playing conditions, it'll be a bit of a surprise if Hovland doesn't leave him behind from here.
Of the remaining five, Fisher would be considered the pick as he loves this event, can generally be relied upon to stay out of trouble, and his playing partner Nacho Elvira admitted to some driving issues on Friday.
But while it would be nice to find another speculative multiple, let's keep things simple this time.
Posted at 20:40 BST on 18/09/26
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