Ludvig Aberg is in pole position at The Players Championship entering the weekend. Ben Coley looks ahead to day three at Sawgrass.
- Aberg takes command after sublime 63
- 16/1 bar three in revised outright betting
- Play resumes just after midday UK time
Golf betting tips: The Players round three
1pt double Roy and Kirk to win their two-balls at 9/2 (General)
2pts double Fleetwood and Bridgeman to win their two-balls at 2/1 (General)
Being a week early has become a bit of a theme for this column of late and after Casey Jarvis (selected HotelPlanner Tour, won next two DP World Tour), Collin Morikawa (selected Phoenix, won Riviera) and Daniel Berger (selected Cognizant, lost play-off Bay Hill), Ludvig Aberg is the latest man to threaten to create one of the most frustrating scenarios anyone can experience in this game.
My faith in the Swede has remained – I believe firmly that this is a great European golfer we're talking about, one who will surpass Henrik Stenson as Sweden's greatest ever male professional – and having selected him at 40/1 at Riviera and 35/1 at Bay Hill, seeing him win this at 22/1 would be another kick in the teeth. At least this time the odds were shorter, nevertheless he's the very last player I wanted to see take command.
There's a long way to go, of course, and there are mixed messages from the history books. In general this is a tough place to front-run, which goes with the territory at risk-reward golf courses where avoiding risk can leave you vulnerable, but taking it on can leave you feeling a little silly to have done so. However, Jason Day and Webb Simpson are two fairly recent examples of wide-margin halfway leaders who won with plenty in hand and the field is quite well spread out.
Aberg is one from six with the halfway lead, or one from three if you ignore shares of the lead, but I think the more relevant information is how he's hitting the ball. Friday's 63 was sensational and he's gained almost 10 strokes ball-striking in two rounds. More of the same and it would take something extraordinary to beat him. To put this really simply, I think he'll probably win the tournament.
Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young are the chief threats to that and the former has been similarly excellent with his ball-striking, which he married with some nice putts in round two. Young meanwhile is fourth in those ball-striking statistics, with fourth-placed Corey Conners the only other player ahead of him. Sawgrass, with thicker than usual rough but fairly soft conditions, is rewarding flushers only.
With conditions perfect and these greens unlikely to become as firm as planned, and a world-class front three, I don't think there are many realistic winners from here and wouldn't even count Conners among them. It's 16/1 bar three and of them, Aberg is a strong fancy to convert this lead and take the next step in what's likely to be an exceptional, major-winning career if you ask me.
Sometimes you just have to accept you were wrong and my stubbornness regarding the price this week was that. There's a compelling argument that the best of the rest are interchangeable and so should their prices be. It seems Aberg is about to take that mantle again and in fact whether him, Schauffele or Young, the winner of this could justifiably lay claim to it as things move nicely into position before the Masters.
As far as his price now goes, I really do believe we're down to a three-way battle over 36 holes, and if you priced that up based on pre-tournament odds, Aberg would be at most a 7/4 chance with no head start. Odds of 6/4 when he's got three in hand over Young and two over Schauffele look generous, so he would be the bet for those wanting one at this stage.
Conners, Jacob Bridgeman, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick are all T10 or better so place prospects are strong despite late mishaps, with Hideki Matsuyama also capable of challenging for one himself should he be among the low scorers today.
Pick of the early two-balls is CHRIS KIRK, great value at 6/4 to beat Nicolai Hojgaard.
Kirk has a solid record here down the years and is a good fit for the course, something Hojgaard is yet to prove. He's made the cut for the first time in three tries but only just, and that's thanks to some of the very best short-game numbers in the field.
There are courses at which Hojgaard would look the bet here but at Sawgrass and at these prices it's Kirk who looks worth siding with. He's not holed much, as is often the case, but has largely looked in control and if he can play from the fairway, Hojgaard may struggle to keep mistakes off his card.
We can get 9/2 and bigger about a double with KEVIN ROY and he's another underdog I like.
Roy is a steady, unspectacular player but he's hitting the ball really nicely, gaining strokes off the tee and on approach in both rounds so far. He'd arrived at the top of his game but needing the putter to warm up, and that's precisely what happened on Friday to earn him a weekend tee-time.
JT Poston's long-game remains worryingly poor and while leading the field in putting yesterday wasn't necessarily a big surprise, he'll do well to repeat it. I don't mind taking him on given that his long-game was erratic coming in and hasn't shown significant signs of improvement.
Min Woo Lee can beat Alex Noren if keeping the mistakes off his card and boosts this double to 9/1 for those so inclined, but he's a shade of odds-on against a high-class opponent and I'm content to leave him out.
In the evening, Viktor Hovland, TOMMY FLEETWOOD and JACOB BRIDGEMAN rate my favourite options.
Hovland hasn't had his A-game from tee-to-green but has scored well for the most part and if that continues he'll probably beat Brian Harman. However he is priced to do so and Harman, who hit the ball as well as he has in a long time on Friday, is a course specialist who we probably ought to respect.
Instead then it's another double starting with Fleetwood, who didn't quite have his best stuff on Friday afternoon but fought hard and finished well. His experience and superior iron play can account for the promising Michael Thorbjornsen, a player who may win soon but isn't ideally suited to Sawgrass.
Finally, Bridgeman looks set for his seventh top-20 in seven starts this season and has to be the play against the number one putter in the field so far, Hodges. Bridgeman ranks third, but whereas for him that's standard, Hodges has been well above his baseline to this point and is odds-on to regress.
It's 2/1 both favourites oblige and having thought long and hard about siding with Aberg in the outright market at shorter, we'll stick to the match bets and be thankful Aaron Rai isn't around to ruin them.
Posted at 08:00 GMT on 14/03/26
More golf content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
