Golf betting tips: The Valspar Championship final round preview

Golf betting tips: The Valspar Championship final round

2pts Cameron Young (v Brendon Todd) & Ryan Moore (v Joseph Bramlett) two-ball double at 2.8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Chandler Phillips (v Cameron Champ) two-ball single at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Keith Mitchell found the ideal method to solve his putting difficulties on the 54th hole of the Valspar Championship. Ben Coley’s 50/1 pre-event pick drained his 151-yard approach for an eagle-2 that vaulted him two strokes clear of the field with 18 holes to play on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort.

The 32-year-old currently ranks 65th of the 77 players who made the cut for Strokes Gained Putting and, while the errant flat stick was not entirely responsible for his three front-nine bogeys, it didn’t help him out on those holes. In contrast, his long game – he ranks first for Approach – continued to offer opportunities and he started to take them. He made four birdies in six holes before making the walk to the final green with no need to think about the putter to complete opening rounds of 67-70-66.

He has that two-stroke advantage over Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes and Peter Malnati. A further shot in arrears are Cameron Young, Brendon Todd and Chandler Phillips. Starting the final round four blows back in a share of eighth, Cameron Champ, Adam Hadwin (another Coley selection at 45/1), Rico Hoey, Adam Svensson and Kevin Roy will fancy their chances of exerting pressure if they can go low.

There is final-round threat at Innisbrook. Corey Conners was one clear in 2018, carded 77 and finished T16th; George Coetzee tumbled from a share of the lead to seven back with a 74 in 2013 and Retief Goosen went from tied first to T20th with a Sunday 75 in 2012. The likes of Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, Justin Leonard, Jim Furyk and Tom Lehman have been ahead or tied at the top at this stage without winning. In the 22 editions all winners were within five shots at this stage and 18 of the last 20 were within three.

The leader has good vibes about the event because he made his PGA Tour debut on it as a Monday qualifier in 2017 and finished T11th. He also has bad vibes: his only other start was in 2022 when he closed with an 82. He’ll be delighted to be leading both the event and SG Approach because, he explained: “This off-season I had a team meeting (because) my SG Approach relative to the field was very poor. There’s some skews in there relative to your driving, but still it shouldn’t be that poor. I was technically losing my card almost every year in SG Approach. That’s just unacceptable out here, especially when I have the technique to do it if I can hit my driver like I do. So it was all distance control. I learned that, fortunately. I hate that it took this long, but it’s better late than never.”

He’s currently a best price of 15/8 and as short as 13/8.

Power carded a 66 in the first round of his Innisbrook debut but after that failed to break 70 seven times in registering T27th-MC-MC. Opening this week 68-69-68 is a welcome boost therefore and, while he’s played four rounds in nine of his last 10 starts, he’s also looking for a first top 10 since the end of 2022 when he made three in a row (starting with a win in Bermuda). He’s available at 15/2.

Hughes had also only ever gone sub-70 once before on the course (his record book reads MC-T13th-MC-MC) and he’s also played four rounds in nine of his last 10 starts. Early in that run he had a couple of top 10s, though. He was excited about being in the hunt after his 68-68-69 start but also added that he’d started the week needing work on the range had “lost a few to the right today”. He’s been reliant on excellent putting (he leads the field 7.612 strokes gained) and is 7/1.

Malnati got a little stuck on the back nine, opening with eight pars before a 31-foot birdie vaulted him into that three-way share of second. Guess what? Yes, he’d also only ever carded one round in the 60s at Innisbrook before this week (record: MC-MC-MC-T60th-MC-MC-MC, this week: 66-71-68). He’s missed more cuts than Power and Hughes in recent times but was ninth two weeks ago in the Cognizant Classic and carded 66 in the third round last week at TPC Sawgrass. He’s second behind Hughes for Putting on 7.073 and can be backed at 12/1.

The long-term excellence of Cameron Young sees him enter the final round rated a 15/2 shot and Ben made a good point about his many near-misses:

He’s second in the field this week Off the Tee but ranks outside the top 30 for Approach, Around the Green and Putting.

Todd, rather absurdly, is yet another with just one previous rounds in the 60s at the event (in his case in six visits and 16 rounds) and he was sixth two starts ago at Bay Hill. Phillips has never made a PGA Tour top 20. Of them all, being on Mitchell from the start would be my happiest position and of the chasers four back Hadwin would be the pick. Fingers crossed, therefore, for Ben’s pair.

In the two-balls, YOUNG's consistency may or may not be sufficient for the win but there’s a good chance it is good enough to better Todd. Meanwhile, RYAN MOORE, who has five top 20s at Innisbrook, is up against Joseph Bramlett who is making a 14th PGA Tour start in Florida and hoping this week will be a first top 30. The Young/Moore double pays 2.8/1.

And finally, PHILLIPS and Champ play together and have history. Phillips said after the third round: “Cam is one of my best friends. We were roommates for three years in college. It will probably help me, because I’ll feel like it’s just another round at home.”

Champ has a rotten record in Florida. This is just his third cut made in his 12th start with a previous best of T48th. It’s also the second cut he has made in his last eight starts. In his limited Florida appearances, Phillips was T12th with a final round 63 on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and opened with a 66 in the Cognizant Classic before having to withdraw. He’s played four final rounds in his rookie season and gone sub-69 in three of them. He can pinch the two-ball.