Golf betting tips: The Houston Open final round preview
Alex Noren is a 300/1 each-way suggestion from our golf expert Matt Cooper ahead of the final round of the Houston Open.
Golf betting tips: The Houston Open final round
0.25pts e.w. Alex Noren at 300/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
2pts three-ball double: Andrew Novak (vs Greyson Sigg, Scott Gutschewski) & Kurt Kitayama (vs Ryan Moore, Ben Silverman) at 4/1 (General)
Twenty-four hours after ending one great run Scottie Scheffler is on the brink of maintaining another.
On Friday the World No. 1 contrived to miss a 1-foot 11-inch tiddler on the final green of his second round in the Houston Open to make double bogey and shoot level-par 70. With that, he ended a run of 28 consecutive rounds under-par that is a modern-era record on the PGA Tour.
Unperturbed by that error, or by a sloppy run of bogey-par-double bogey in the middle of the back nine on Saturday, Scheffler bounced back with a third round 66 to join a five-way share of the 54-hole lead at Memorial Park on 9-under 201.
Should the 27-year-old win he’ll be the first man to win in three straight starts since Dustin Johnson did so in 2017 – coincidentally also in the run-up to the Masters.
Can he add this title to the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship? The man himself insisted: “Winning the last two doesn’t help me do anything tomorrow. I think it’s going to be another pretty challenging day out there with high winds. I’ll stick to my process and control what I can control out there.”
He is a wholesome character unlikely to act the big time Charlie, so he was saying the right things. He’s also correct to be wary of the forecast blustery winds of around 20mph and an approach that expects nothing to fall in his lap is what has got him to his elevated position in the game in the first place.
But the two wins do help him in one significant respect. He can play the final round with the knowledge that if he doesn’t win it doesn’t much change things: he’s still the recent winner of two significant titles. In contrast, the cosmopolitan quartet with whom he shares the lead – Englishman David Skinns, Germany’s Stephan Jaeger, Argentina’s Alejandro Tosti and Belgium’s Thomas Detry – are playing to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.
The trio one shot back and chasing them – the Americans Nick Dunlap, Akshay Bhatia and Taylor Moore – have one win apiece. In a share of ninth, a further shot in arrears, are the multiple winner Tony Finau (who also won the last edition of the tournament in 2022) and Chad Ramey (one-time PGA Tour winner) plus Max Greyserman (yet to win anywhere) and Englishman Aaron Rai (two-time DP World Tour winner).
The threat of Scheffler is further backed up by the fact that the three winners of this tournament at Memorial Park each had fine records in Texas. Not only had they all recorded multiple top 20s in the Lone Star State, they also had recent form there. Finau had been fourth in his previous starts (at Colonial), the man he succeeded Jason Kokrak had been a winner in his previous Texas start (also at Colonial) and the first winner on the course Carlos Ortiz had been fourth in his penultimate start in the state.
What of Scheffler? Seven of his last eight starts in Texas have reaped top 10s and he was third last time he teed it up there at... Colonial. He’s best price 29/20.
Skinns (16/1) has limited experience of Texas with one finish of better than T30th when fifth on the second tier in 2020. It is his second 54 hole lead in five starts, however, so how much will he have learned from the first at PGA National? Jaeger (8/1) has three top 20s in Texas with a best of ninth in this event two years ago. He also had another 54 hole earlier in the season when eventually third in the Farmers Insurance Open. Tosti (14/1) has played once before in Texas, when 10th on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. He did finish T10th in last year’s Mexico Open but this season he has a best of T43rd and is playing with a stiff neck.
Detry (9/1) is making a third start in the state with a best of T21st at Colonial and he’s got 36 main tour top 10s, 11 of them top threes, but the win has been elusive.
As they chase a second PGA win, Dunlap (20/1), Bhatia (12/1) and Moore (14/1) lack any great Texan credentials but might offer more threat than the four under pressure alongside Scheffler.
In the outright market a real outsider makes some appeal. Sweden’s ALEX NOREN found something with the putter on Saturday and he’s got a decent record in Texas with seven top 20s including a semi-final in the WGC Dell Match Play and fourth in this event in 2022 when he shared the first round lead with a 65.
He’s currently five back in T16th but his last three wins have come from six, seven and seven strokes back after 54 holes. He’s still to win Stateside but “this season” (including the weird bit last year) he’s been very consistent. He was also third and second before Christmas, ninth at PGA National and T19th at Sawgrass last time out.
Odds of 300/1 attract but the tricky bit is the back up – only one book goes top four, most go top three in the each way and the top five markets are understandably shorter in price. We’ll go small stake each way and rue that it’s unfair to pick the one book with the extra place (but shorter price).
For the three-balls we’ll take a double.
ANDREW NOAVAK is in a nice run of form with four top 20s in his last five starts and he’s gone sub-70 in his last three final rounds. He’s also gone sub-70 in six of his last seven final rounds in Texas including two 64s. He’s up against Scott Gutschewski for whom this weekend is a first in six tries this year and Greyson Sigg who doesn’t have the greatest record in Texas on the PGA Tour (eight starts, six missed cuts, no top 40).
Add KURT KITAYAMA who is never afraid of blustery breezes and can better Ben Silverman (nothing much in Texas on the main tour) and Ryan Moore (struggled in recent times in Texas). Both solid options at 5/4 the double pays 4/1.
Posted at 1054 BST on 31/03/24
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